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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #18,901
  • May 3, 2015 10:07pm May 3, 2015 10:07pm
4h TF Murrey Math on volume profile

what do you say: mindfuck?


I mean: do we only believe that we see connectedness here, or is it really a connectedness?

Hard to say: the lines are many, as well as the peaks and troughs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 25 KB
  • #18,902
  • May 4, 2015 2:18am May 4, 2015 2:18am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
TEPCO Admits Fukushima Is Leaking Again - Over 600x 'Safe' Radiation Levels



Oh really -when was it not leaking?

Poor people there......
  • #18,903
  • May 4, 2015 4:05am May 4, 2015 4:05am
Quoting infinitus
4h TF Murrey Math on volume profile what do you say: mindfuck? I mean: do we only believe that we see connectedness here, or is it really a connectedness? Hard to say: the lines are many, as well as the peaks and troughs {image}
Some thoughts.

D.P.
Attached Image
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,904
  • May 4, 2015 7:41am May 4, 2015 7:41am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Some thoughts. D.P. {image}

Hmmmm, the yellow line is the strongest one in Murrey Math, the 4/8

the red ones are the 0/8, 2/8, 6/8 and 8/8, also strong lines


so the strongest lines should be the even ones.


But as I have noticed before:


4/8 is strong, and when price moves away from it, the price very often is (at least temporarily) hold around the 0/8 and 8/8


would be nice to be able to kind of backtest how price moved, volume profiles build, and on top of that to see how the Murrey Math lines also moved.
  • #18,905
  • Edited 1:21pm May 4, 2015 8:38am | Edited 1:21pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hmmmm, the yellow line is the strongest one in Murrey Math, the 4/8 the red ones are the 0/8, 2/8, 6/8 and 8/8, also strong lines so the strongest lines should be the even ones. But as I have noticed before: 4/8 is strong, and when price moves away from it, the price very often is (at least temporarily) hold around the 0/8 and 8/8 would be nice to be able to kind of backtest how price moved, volume profiles build, and on top of that to see how the Murrey Math lines also moved.
So, I must confess that if the yellow line is the strongest one, my hypothesis is wrong.

The matter is that many years ago I researched (simulated) some physical processes, taking an array of potencial wells (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_well) into consideration, at which a particle could get in/out, if it has an appropriate potencial energy.

I though what if the price was alike a particle, and the volumes formed the potential barrier (- area, where the particle should find its new energetical equilibrium).

So, my thoughts brought me to the picture you found.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,906
  • May 4, 2015 10:02am May 4, 2015 10:02am
Quoting infinitus
4h TF Murrey Math on volume profile what do you say: mindfuck? I mean: do we only believe that we see connectedness here, or is it really a connectedness? Hard to say: the lines are many, as well as the peaks and troughs {image}

Currently I don't have clear view,
but it seem EU will stay within 1.1070 to 1.1290 for several days longer... maybe even a week or so.
  • #18,907
  • May 4, 2015 10:40am May 4, 2015 10:40am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} I think, the weekend movements we can see on XE.com are not related to true interbank market. They seem to widen their spread......
Thank you sir for the reply. Has a usd/chf buy on friday and when i saw xe.com, my cojones rocketed to the throat thinking of a $600 loss i will incur at market open. I thought the SNB did something again.. thanks again.
STING
  • #18,908
  • May 4, 2015 10:54am May 4, 2015 10:54am
Quoting infinitus
4h TF Murrey Math on volume profile what do you say: mindfuck? I mean: do we only believe that we see connectedness here, or is it really a connectedness? Hard to say: the lines are many, as well as the peaks and troughs {image}
fancy graph but i have the feeling you dont know what to do with it yourself
so looking at it whats the next step?
0 fcks given
  • #18,909
  • Edited 1:51pm May 4, 2015 1:20pm | Edited 1:51pm
Quoting infinitus
4h TF Murrey Math on volume profile what do you say: mindfuck? I mean: do we only believe that we see connectedness here, or is it really a connectedness? Hard to say: the lines are many, as well as the peaks and troughs {image}
Once again. You took one swing (you need the last swing, I think) and tried merging with MM.

We know that MMs work well at the higher TFs. However your picture does not confirm it at all of volume levels.

1/ Try finding parameters of MM by way that gives you maximal correspondence between them.

2/ One more thing. How long your does your swing last? Maybe you should try another time interval for your swing, less than now.

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,910
  • May 4, 2015 2:59pm May 4, 2015 2:59pm
bean counting?
MM is like Elliott & Fibs and Dow-Theory feasible qualified instruments but maybe we shouldn't make the delusion to pull it on every market situation at all times, IMO.
FXcube
  • #18,911
  • May 4, 2015 3:40pm May 4, 2015 3:40pm
Quoting stringfx
{quote} Thank you sir for the reply. Has a usd/chf buy on friday and when i saw xe.com, my cojones rocketed to the throat thinking of a $600 loss i will incur at market open. I thought the SNB did something again.. thanks again.



I had my WTF moments with XE.com in the past on weekends. Stress for nothing. And the cojones in the throat can hurt much for a long weekend
  • #18,912
  • May 4, 2015 4:00pm May 4, 2015 4:00pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} So, I must confess that if the yellow line is the strongest one, my hypothesis is wrong. The matter is that many years ago I researched (simulated) some physical processes, taking an array of potencial wells (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_well) into consideration, at which a particle could get in/out, if it has an appropriate potencial energy. I though what if the price was alike a particle, and the volumes formed the potential barrier (- area, where the particle should find its new energetical equilibrium). So, my thoughts...

Hi D.P.,

in this case I simply applied the current 4h Murrey Math (4h, 32 periods back) on the total Swing from the 399x high.

I other words: the volume situation is given (because resulted from actions in the past). On top of this, we place the actual 4h (p=32) Murrey Math.

Now we can see, if price reacts to the Murreys or to the volume


But we have to keep in mind: Murreys change over time. That means in this case: the yellow line was at another place before. The Murrey lines are not for analyzing the past, but for analyzing the present to the future.


So we would need to wait in order to see, what will happen, when price reaches the yellow line, while the yellow line lies in the no-business zone.

In this case I would bet, that price just walks through the yellow line and up to the next red line (the 6/8), which happens to lie in front of a high volume distribution.


The charm of the Murreys is, that they often enough pinpoint the move. But as ever the question is: which line?


Combined with volume it may get easier to decide


BTW: interesting theories - conclusion: if you can master the particle, you can master the price (Yes, You Can!)
  • #18,913
  • May 4, 2015 4:18pm May 4, 2015 4:18pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Once again. You took one swing (you need the last swing, I think) and tried merging with MM. We know that MMs work well at the higher TFs. However your picture does not confirm it at all of volume levels. 1/ Try finding parameters of MM by way that gives you maximal correspondence between them. 2/ One more thing. How long your does your swing last? Maybe you should try another time interval for your swing, less than now. Best, D.P.


As explained befor, I applied 4h Murrey Math to a static swing. I think it is meaningless, if we use a static swing or a rolling one on this purpose. But I have to think about it a bit more.



here is another pic.


Daily Murrey Math(p=32) on a so to say synchronized rolling Swing of the last 32 days (daily * 32)


The rolling 32 days profile reflects only the volume of the last 32 days.

As you can see, the yellow 4/8 line is at around 1230. The 1230 is at the far right side of the tail of the distribution. the real deal happens to be at the 5/8 line now (1353), not on this chart (but on the 32 weeks chart), that is near the POC of the next ultra high volume zone. Price reverses more seldom on a 5/8, so the bet would be either the 4/8, or to the 6/8, which is at 1475 (not visible on this chart).

The 1475 would be the right tail of this ultra high volume zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 25 KB
  • #18,914
  • May 4, 2015 4:21pm May 4, 2015 4:21pm
Quoting r4nd0m
{quote} fancy graph but i have the feeling you dont know what to do with it yourself so looking at it whats the next step?
Hi r4nd0m,


please read my replies to D.P.

There is also the answer to your question.



The initial idea was, that when we measure the volume profile inside of the Murrey math lookback period, build the Gaussian distribution, that we can determine the probability for reversal on each Murrey Math trading line.

But now I think we have to use it soewhat differently (as explained in above posts)
  • #18,915
  • May 4, 2015 4:24pm May 4, 2015 4:24pm
Quoting Forexcube
bean counting? MM is like Elliott & Fibs and Dow-Theory feasible qualified instruments but maybe we shouldn't make the delusion to pull it on every market situation at all times, IMO. FXcube


exactly, that is the reason I stayed away from Murrey math for some times now, because we had a very strong unidirectional move. Murrey works best in strong ranging markets


But it can not hurt to research some methods or develop new ones
  • #18,916
  • May 4, 2015 6:02pm May 4, 2015 6:02pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Gates Says Bet On Yuan As IMF Calls Currency Fairly Valued
  • #18,917
  • May 4, 2015 6:30pm May 4, 2015 6:30pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} .

you got mail, Sir
  • #18,918
  • May 5, 2015 4:18am May 5, 2015 4:18am
Quoting infinitus
{image} Gates Says Bet On Yuan As IMF Calls Currency Fairly Valued
That is greenlight by IMF for Yuan to be included into SDR -"fairly valued". And Gates as one of fronthead globalists surely can take a hint. Now the question is what will happen with Chinese gold hoardings. Will SDR be backed by gold? I would say highly unlikely. And if it wont be then Chinese gold holdings will never be revealed. There wont be any anti-dollar currency as it has been talked before, it will be ultimate signal that we are heading towards one world currency. October meeting will tell.
  • #18,919
  • May 5, 2015 8:01am May 5, 2015 8:01am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} exactly, that is the reason I stayed away from Murrey math for some times now, because we had a very strong unidirectional move. Murrey works best in strong ranging markets But it can not hurt to research some methods or develop new ones
  • #18,920
  • May 5, 2015 9:28am May 5, 2015 9:28am
Murrey Math on rolling volume profiles:

yellow line is the 4/8

H4 // 5,33 days means, that it is 4h Murrey Math. The lookback period is 32, which translates to 5,33 days.

The volume profile then shows the last 5.33 days.

The price charts is hourly.

On the D1 and W1 the price chart is 4h
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 135 KB
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