Hi Dunstan,
What is your read on the COT positioning of the US dollar?
What is your read on the COT positioning of the US dollar?
Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis
- #382
- Mar 11, 2015 6:36am Mar 11, 2015 6:36am
Hi Dunstan, What is your read on the COT positioning of the US dollar?
Yes... USD Index is definetly an interesting market these days... but because of the many correlations and obvious fundamentals, we have to be very cautious with our assumptions based on purely cot analysis. There is no question about the bearish cot extreme signal that is present in the market, but I don't feel that the time has come to start selling. I know, some might be surprised at my statement, but the truth is that we need to take more aspects into consideration and not only the cot report. I wouldn't be surprised if for example we'd see a commercial capitulation which would result in even higher prices. I'm not saying that it will happen - I don't think anyone could say that responsibly - but if it would happen, I wouldn't be that shocked.
Of course I may be very wrong and following the simple cot analysis rules, one who takes action on this cot extreme will be "glorious"
Sorry that I coudn't be more precise. Please share with me your views of the US dollar! I would be very much interested in your opinion!
All the best,
Dunstan
- #388
- Mar 16, 2015 5:45am Mar 16, 2015 5:45am
{quote} Dustan, I use COT also ... looking at EUR, GBP (and other currencies traded against the USD), we see the USD is highly short by commercials, and highly long by funds. If you look at this in either net positions or % of OI, it is the same. So generally when this occurs, a reversal is near. Reading what you posted above ... the trend can still continue for a long time (I've seen this as well). When you notice this (trend continuing, but extreme levels, and commercials starting to capitulate), do you look at OI levels? I was wondering if you...
Thanks very much for your post! Yes, I have noticed it and yes, it truly is important to look at OI parallel!
I guess we will see in a few weeks, months what happens to USD. It’s always easy to “spot” an extreme coinciding with a top/bottom many weeks after it happened
All the best,
Dunstan
- #389
- Mar 16, 2015 5:46am Mar 16, 2015 5:46am
{quote} Hey Dunstan, looking at coffee and sugar, both look very interesting, seems more downside may be coming in both, but sooner or later...... Would like to see some analysis on those 2 if you don't mind.
Coffee: We have had large bearish cot extreme during most of 2014, thus we should not be surprised to see prices falling now. We’ve moved away from these bearish extremes and slowly, steadily getting closer to bullish extremes. Still far away from any large extreme (30-35.000 contracts away in case of LS and C), but we have to realize that the decline will end eventually. I’m not saying you should enter long now!! In contrast, I think the chances are still higher for further price weakening.
Sugar: Much “Bullisher”
than coffee! I wouldn’t be surprised to see more decline, but (!) I do think that we should see a correction soon. The bullish cot extreme is unquestionably present in the market.I hope this was helpful!
All the best,
Dunstan
- #390
- Mar 16, 2015 5:46am Mar 16, 2015 5:46am
{quote} Hi Dunstan, in that chart on post 42 I see that as the commercials capitulated the specs started closing their positions too. Any idea why? The specs and the commercials seem to do the exact opposite of one another at all time.
Yes, you are right. Since this is a zero sum game, LS and C are usually opposite of each other. Your question is thus very logical: why is it called commercials capitulation, why not Large Specs capitulation?
To understand better, think about what cotton farmers may have been doing at the time. Prices were skyrocketing, which meant that they easily sold future contracts knowing that they will sell their crops when matured. The only problem they did not calculate is the losses that they were accumulating on their trading accounts and that because of the margin requirements they had to liquidate these open positions.
Large Specs were simply taking profits at the time
All the best,
Dunstan
- #391
- Mar 16, 2015 5:47am Mar 16, 2015 5:47am
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 22% /
The larger changes in Traders positions suggests that we should see a bit of a prices rise in the next few days… We’ll see. We do not have a mentionable cot extreme, so that’s all we can gather from cot data this week.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme /C, LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Does it get any better than All Time cot extreme in all three major Market Players positions? I don’t think so… It is a clear and unquestionable bullish cot extreme situation. We are expecting prices to bottom out soon, but (!) let’s not forget that these extreme may be present in a market for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction from price.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another huge signal, but maybe not as “easy” as in case of AUD… If you look at the chart, we have had similar level of extreme for quite some time now and without any reasonable reaction from price. I’d say we can position ourselves accordingly, but with greater caution knowing the history of Rough Rice.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS – 22% /
The larger changes in Traders positions suggests that we should see a bit of a prices rise in the next few days… We’ll see. We do not have a mentionable cot extreme, so that’s all we can gather from cot data this week.
Australian Dollar
COT Extreme /C, LS, SS – All Time COT extreme /
Does it get any better than All Time cot extreme in all three major Market Players positions?
I don’t think so… It is a clear and unquestionable bullish cot extreme situation. We are expecting prices to bottom out soon, but (!) let’s not forget that these extreme may be present in a market for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction from price.Rough Rice
COT Extreme /C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Another huge signal, but maybe not as “easy” as in case of AUD… If you look at the chart, we have had similar level of extreme for quite some time now and without any reasonable reaction from price. I’d say we can position ourselves accordingly, but with greater caution knowing the history of Rough Rice.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
- #392
- Mar 23, 2015 6:10am Mar 23, 2015 6:10am
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 22%, SS – 26% /
Both cot signals point upwards: we have a larger change in Trader’s positions plus a relative bullish cot extreme. I wouldn’t say that this is the best trading opportunity, but for any of you, who trade this market, the cot data seems to be indicating a positive picture.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week I said it is not too easy to determine rough rice’s move, because we have had such stress levels in the market for quite some time now without any major price reaction. After many weeks of declines, last week was very strong. Have we reached the bottom? It’s hard to tell, but the bullish cot extreme signal is still present, that is for sure.
Orange Juice
COT Extreme /C – 606, LS – 601 report COT extreme /
What a beautiful signal in one of my favorite markets It’s hard to say much about it, the charts tell us a very clear “story”. OJ has many time reacted nicely to cot extreme signals, thus I have great confidence that it will once again do so.
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 22%, SS – 26% /
Both cot signals point upwards: we have a larger change in Trader’s positions plus a relative bullish cot extreme. I wouldn’t say that this is the best trading opportunity, but for any of you, who trade this market, the cot data seems to be indicating a positive picture.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
Last week I said it is not too easy to determine rough rice’s move, because we have had such stress levels in the market for quite some time now without any major price reaction. After many weeks of declines, last week was very strong. Have we reached the bottom? It’s hard to tell, but the bullish cot extreme signal is still present, that is for sure.
Orange Juice
COT Extreme /C – 606, LS – 601 report COT extreme /
What a beautiful signal in one of my favorite markets
It’s hard to say much about it, the charts tell us a very clear “story”. OJ has many time reacted nicely to cot extreme signals, thus I have great confidence that it will once again do so.All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 32%, SS – 11% /
Both of our main cot signals are bullish: a larger change in Traders positions and also the cot extreme. I think this is a good market with large trading potential in it!
Wheat (both: Chicago and Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are still declining, but as they do, stress levels are getting larger day by day… I think these are again great markets with good trading opportunities! Similar to Oats of course, so take into consideration the correlation effect when managing your portfolio.
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 213 report COT extreme /
I thought I’ll jump over rough rice and talk about something new instead The cot extreme is clearly huge and we have seen confirming price reaction last week, so we may start looking for good entries here!
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Oats
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 32%, SS – 11% /
Both of our main cot signals are bullish: a larger change in Traders positions and also the cot extreme. I think this is a good market with large trading potential in it!
Wheat (both: Chicago and Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are still declining, but as they do, stress levels are getting larger day by day… I think these are again great markets with good trading opportunities! Similar to Oats of course, so take into consideration the correlation effect when managing your portfolio.
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 213 report COT extreme /
I thought I’ll jump over rough rice and talk about something new instead
The cot extreme is clearly huge and we have seen confirming price reaction last week, so we may start looking for good entries here!All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
- #400
- May 12, 2015 3:52am May 12, 2015 3:52am
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 33%, SS – 34% /
COT Extreme / SS – 160 report COT extreme /
It may seem interesting at these price levels, but all major cot signals are bullish: a large change in Traders positions and pessimistic small speculators.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are declining and as they do, the cot extreme is becoming larger and larger… I have attached a longer, 15y chart to show you: although there is plenty of space left downwards (making us cautious), we have reached a significant support level.
Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Extreme has become larger, but last week prices managed to gain some momentum… we’ll see in the next few weeks whether we have reached the bottom or not
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Nasdaq-100
COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 33%, SS – 34% /
COT Extreme / SS – 160 report COT extreme /
It may seem interesting at these price levels, but all major cot signals are bullish: a large change in Traders positions and pessimistic small speculators.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Prices are declining and as they do, the cot extreme is becoming larger and larger… I have attached a longer, 15y chart to show you: although there is plenty of space left downwards (making us cautious), we have reached a significant support level.
Wheat (Kansas)
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Extreme has become larger, but last week prices managed to gain some momentum… we’ll see in the next few weeks whether we have reached the bottom or not
All the best,
Dunstan
COT Charts
