Beyond the Candles

It is in line with my method...the trend is bullish ( HH+HL )..where is the best place to buy...right ..at the S level..and right now the P at the M RM's S.....the PA candle as D confirmation is not the best PA that could agree 100% with my selection criteria...but the position is on top !

WFC
One of the most important trading aspect is the levels where we decide to sell/buy..ovviously we want to do it at the most important and powerful level..remember...the level's importance is given by the P reaction at the level...bigger the effect=more important the level !

Once the P close above / below an important level as the buyer / seller information,all we have to do is waiting for a RET and D confirmation:

Live trade...GBPUSD...M=bearish trend / W= buyers exhaustion / D= 2D bearish PB in RM @ BRN

Thanks for the update, I am still waiting, on 7th may is UK election, everything UK ( like the FTSE ) seems to be waiting....

To sell now shows courage... !

pic shows DAILY :

fxgroup
GBPUSD Month chart

Weekly


Day


but fail to reach the target

USDmxn
Hoi. There is my last trade, it was a little bit risky, I know. The price is over the last M level, and give me a pinbar, wich was my entry. There was a little place between the next day open and the 15.4 and where a trendline come in. I was shure I need to take my trade in BE at this point. Today was the Unemployment Claims, and it can move the market a little bit, and tomorrow is the NFP(most Important like Unemployment Claims), and it can make me some lost. And why I open this trade? I was shure the price will hit the 15.4 next day, and when it will go up, the NFP can give me nice profit, or a BE. M and W is in uptrend, pinbar at the important level.

This week I had a very profitable trede, wich I have alredy closed. I saw it on MT4, but I traded it on another platform. It was the SWE30 index. I do not have much to say about it, M and W close below the last important level. Beautiful setup!

Good opportunity:EURTRY

How you make a plan...
CADCHF
Last two mont pushed the price below 0,800. Very strong level. But the 0.76 give us another level at the bottem(last weekly candle).Now, wath can we do?
We are in range market.
The daily char will give us the answer... Watch what will the price do on daily...

Attachment

EURCAD

On the M 1.3 pushed the price back in the last Rm. Wait for break out and rhe retest on D.

Food for thought.

Vertical gray lines: 7 year cycles

All other lines are channels. FXE shows a lot of shorts still, if it is indeed a long term trend change when those shorts finally close it will probably fly up to 1.2

Hi fxgroup, I have a question (forgive me if this has been answered)

In this example you identify the S/R line on the monthly and say you will wait for price to close below the line. Are you waiting for a monthly close below? Because it looks like there was a weekly close below and a retest on the daily.

Could you explain why that weekly close below did not count?

Thank you so much! I am loving the thread. I found it recently and am almost through it all

The time frame you perform your analysis on is important.

If you find a pattern on the M chart, then actions and reactions (including retracements, breakouts etc.) have to be found on the M chart. Targets too.

Had you done the analysis on the W chart, then the above would apply to the W chart.

The daily chart, instead, is used to enter into the market. However targets and money management have still to be done basing on the time frame you prepared your analysis in.
In this specific case, the analysis is on the M chart, so the target(s) are to be found on the M chart. The RET on daily should happen on a M level you found during the analysis (safer). Then you can enter in the market, taking into account that what will matter are still M targets and MM.
Don't be surprised if price is going to go wild on the D (this is what money management is for) and pulls back to the entry point, because that's what happens when you enter in a time frame but looking at another time frame development. It's actually very possible for price to start on the D chart, then come back to the starting point and close a W candle bar and then go ahead and then get back to the starting point again and close a M candle bar.
If this happens, you are just experiencing the "usual" market and will take limited profits as money management allows.
When this does not happen, this is one of the rare times when prices starts a run away and this is one of the rare times when you may make half the profit for the year in one trade. Needless to say, this happens just 2-3 times a year.

Thanks dfumagalli. That answer almost makes me want to avoid looking at the monthly chart.... hahah

Hello everyone! I have a question regarding the image below.

We have a 2WPB on the weekly and a close below the level. On D it looks like there is confirmation to short. However the M chart showing the big bullish bar last month makes this trade look risky

Does anyone have advice?

That trade would have been risky. I am not saying nobody could take that setup, just that in hindsight everyone is too easily able to predict the past.

First of all, please draw a RN 67 level on the chart.
RNs in theory are not much to talk about, but in this case if you scroll back you'll see how price reacted to it several times in the past (in example, look at the textbook 1999 bearish RET) so at a minimum it's a valid M level. So we already get an M level that is also an RN (confluence of factors).

Furthermore:

- price comes from a very strong M trend. So you are going CT.
- the bearish 2W PB closes exactly above RN 67. Only on one of the platforms I use for analysis, the 2W PB closed a bit below, but not on yours.
- on your platform, the PB and the bar past it formed a "3 bars inversion pattern", however it halted exactly above RN 67. On my platform, the PB had a visible tail below. Yours too shows some.
- the 2W PB closes above the previous weeks swing that happened at the same level.
- there's a third factor but it's part of my "personal, adapted version" of this methodology and not FXGroup's: price was bullish-ly running away from the mean.

All those factors would suggest me to discard the trade.

The only "redeeming" factors would have been:
- the 2W PB formed a double top with the Oct 2009 swing and closed inside it.
- the PB appeared on a lower low (proving the uptread had been weakened - no inversion confirmation yet, though).
- on my platform only, the both the 2W PB and the 3 bars inversion pattern closed below RN 67.


However the "don't do" factors easily trump the "clear to go" factors.

I hope I have expressed exactly the mental process I have followed.

Thanks for the detailed answer. I understand

So far I've gone through about 5 years of back testing using that software. It seems pretty hard to find those textbook entries that fxgroup posts. I get no more than 1 good entry every 2-3 months. I feel like there is still so much I don't see... Like when a big trend starts I usually miss it

I'd love to see how you and fxgroup stay organized and keep track of up coming trades possibilities