Hi, i want to know,what are the parameters you consider for a valid trend change.does a break of low on 4HR confirms this? please check the attached pic
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...
- #122
- Edited 2:00pm May 3, 2015 1:13pm | Edited 2:00pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
Hi, i want to know,what are the parameters you consider for a valid trend change.does a break of low on 4HR confirms this? please check the attached pic {image}
- not the break of the 4hr low but a close below the Last 4hr Swing Low. please see the attached 4hr chart of the EURJPY. NOTE; the Purple line indicates the LSL...so price must close below that for intraday shorts.
- u can take an intraday short when the above happens
- and keep shorting until the 4hrs make a new Swing High and subsequently close above it...because
- ... the Weekly Tf changed to buys, meaning we only look for buy signals in 4hrs.
- see the charts below for clarification.
- i did not follow the above rule and now i sit in a major drawdown which will probably wipe me out if i don't counter it.
- #123
- May 3, 2015 1:37pm May 3, 2015 1:37pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
SunShine... Your analysis is good... but you need to automate your entry. This is what I am testing with the automated entry. The EA is not to be used 24/7, when I am ready I turn it on and let do its thing. This gets me around the physiological aspect. Look at my chart below, I got the buy sign, so I turned on my EA and the rest is history. You can check the Trade Explorer to see how I am doing. {image}
i agree, u are correct unfortunately i do not have any programming skills. i also agree to turn it on only during select times, such as the London Open. I do have a London Open strategy which by its very nature is intraday and every single time i used it thus far it resulted in handsome gains.
...your returns by trade curve is very pleasing, keep it up.
...Do u have an exit strategy when in gains and when in loss for your ea ? i mean, does the ea automatically take profit or close for a loss ?
PS: i'm thinking, it will also eliminate human error such as what i did with the Ozzie trade in which i now have a large drawdown. Basically, what happened was, i went long when there was no buy signal anywhere on Daily OR 4hrs, infact...just the opposite signals appeared but i chose to ignore them...i'm only blaming myself bcz i knew my emotional trading balance was not yet achieved as i mentioned in some of my prior posts.
- #124
- May 3, 2015 1:42pm May 3, 2015 1:42pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
I have been here reading this thread for some time BUT I have to say I am dumbfounded at the results I see from posters when the basic concept is so right FunkThatPunk I have sent you a pm if you wish to respond.
unfortunately now i'm one of those statistics but in my case it is not from lack of understanding but wishful thinking first and 2ndly, from lack of discipline...i just could not stay away from the market, serves me right now i might loose the rest of my account unless i counter that disastrous trade.
- #125
- May 3, 2015 1:55pm May 3, 2015 1:55pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
here is my 4hr chart that shows with the yellow arrow where i bought...no buy signal in sight...was i blind ???
infact, just the opposite, the close below the purple line says 2 things clearly...
infact, just the opposite, the close below the purple line says 2 things clearly...
- no buys now, and
- intraday shorts are in order
i heeded none.
Hi sunshine,
Pls don't be discouraged, everybody makes mistakes, the most important thing is to learn from it. And if u keep on making the same mistakes and losing $, change your actions. Insanity is doing the same thing over & over again while expecting different results - Albert Einstein, cause & effect comes into play here. It helps my trading whenever I think of this proverb (I mean after reflecting on my losses. haha), hope it helps.
Best Regards,
LearnAlways
Pls don't be discouraged, everybody makes mistakes, the most important thing is to learn from it. And if u keep on making the same mistakes and losing $, change your actions. Insanity is doing the same thing over & over again while expecting different results - Albert Einstein, cause & effect comes into play here. It helps my trading whenever I think of this proverb (I mean after reflecting on my losses. haha
), hope it helps.Best Regards,
LearnAlways
I only know I know nothing
- #129
- May 5, 2015 1:56am May 5, 2015 1:56am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
{quote} Hi timilehin, pls look on the weekly chart, there is a long bias... {image}
so now just dropped down to the Trading Indicator timeframe and once a Trade Signal has been generated there in the 4hrs, go long with SL's as recommended for the 4hr tf.
timilihin is also correct in his assessment of the 4hrs ....why ? because he clearly says "intraday short", implying that he has seen the Long Term trend change in the Weekly.
keep it up traders, both of your understanding and interpretations are spot on.
- #130
- May 5, 2015 2:06am May 5, 2015 2:06am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
HI, I think EURUSD has fulfiiled condition for intraday short with projected take profit at weekly swing high break {image}
excellent observation and understanding of when and where to trade counter trend.as for profit taking zone, it is a good projection because of what u mentioned, the Weekly SH break, AND also a Round Number [1.100] in the same vicinity.
i would add; as price descends in the 4hrs it could make a lower Swing High later on which then may result in green bar for a probe [bcz of Wkly trend change] and/or another green bar that will close above that SH for a confirmed buy, so keep an eye on that possibility too.
- #131
- May 5, 2015 2:14am May 5, 2015 2:14am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
Hi sunshine, Pls don't be discouraged, everybody makes mistakes, the most important thing is to learn from it. And if u keep on making the same mistakes and losing $, change your actions. Insanity is doing the same thing over & over again while expecting different results - Albert Einstein, cause & effect comes into play here. It helps my trading whenever I think of this proverb (I mean after reflecting on my losses. haha
very true and encouraging words.i was hoping for a 4hr close above the LSH at 1.7851 but price did better than that, my last 4hr which closed at 7amCAT closed well above that. the main reason why i am still holding onto that loss is that the Main Tf changed direction to up.
Thank you for your encouraging words.
- #132
- May 5, 2015 2:33am May 5, 2015 2:33am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
Forex Lion and timilihin
i have included my own disastrous trade in the charts below together with the EURUSD that u two have referenced.
i have included my own disastrous trade in the charts below together with the EURUSD that u two have referenced.
- #134
- May 5, 2015 1:00pm May 5, 2015 1:00pm
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
Hi Sunshine, You may get out of this trade with a profit at least.
good to hear of u again...yes it looks that way but the trade is still open anything can happen and the profit target is not in sight yet
Let's do some Trend Indicator TF analysis.
AUDUSD...looking at the Monthly Long Term Trend Indicator chart::
- the Mthly close last month indicated a Trend Change.
- 1st major resistance is around 8750 then RN 9000 then 9420
- should the current day close up then that is the Buy Signal for Dly tf.
USOIL & AUDJPY::
- take your pick of instrument as well as timeframe...
- u can trade off the 4hr tf OR we may trade off the ts generated in the Dly tf
- below is their Mthly Trend Indicator TF's
- #138
- May 7, 2015 12:49am May 7, 2015 12:49am
- Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,190 Posts
hi people another great day of trading is over, trading GBP/USD was fantastic as was many other pairs. I hope you all had a great Day