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  • #8,521
  • May 2, 2015 1:28am May 2, 2015 1:28am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...rout-in-europe

"Inflation in the U.S. has recently shown signs of recovery, as well, as oil prices stabilize after a sharp decline. Because longer-dated debt is hurt worst by rising prices, the difference between the yield on two-year Treasuries and 30-year Treasuries rose to its highest level since December.
The market is building in modestly higher inflation expectations, said Thomas Urano, a bond-portfolio manager with Sage Advisory Services Ltd. in Austin Texas, which manages $11 billion in assets. Inflation could bottom out here or drift higher. "

--------

Inflation in the US and, perhaps surprisingly, in the Eurozone, ... will return. The Fed will raise the ffr when the signs of that are clear. Maybe Draghi will even cut short the ECB's QE program. The insane trajectory of interest rates down into negative yields has begun to reverse. These are/will be good developments and mark a progression for these economies up out of crisis mode. I am not sure of the time frame for these things to come to pass but I suspect it will be faster than many expect. The increasing rumor, then the actual fact of rate raises will spell trouble for the bull market in both equities and bonds. I hope I have my act together enough to catch that move.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,522
  • May 2, 2015 1:59am May 2, 2015 1:59am
http://blogs.wsj.com/briefly/2015/05...c-calendar-67/

1. "The Labor Department releases the April jobs report Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect nonfarm payrolls increased by 220,000 jobs last month. That follows the unexpectedly weak 126,000 slots added in March, a miss that economists blamed on weather. To the extent winter conditions did hold down March hiring, expect to see big April rebounds in payrolls in the construction and leisure and hospitality sectors. Economists also expect the April unemployment rate slipped to 5.4% from 5.5% in March."

Unemployment slipping below 5.5% would be a big deal. People argue about what "full employment" means, but not many think it's less than 5% in the US.

2. "When calculating the first-quarter gross domestic product data released on April 29, the Commerce Department had to pencil in the March trade deficit. It estimated the merchandise gap widened by a massive 17%. Trade flows were scrambled by the West Coast port slowdown that began in late 2014. Indeed, both exports and imports fell sharply during the slowdown. The thinking is that the end of the West Coast port slowdown in late February enabled export and import shipments to move more easily in March.
The March estimate meant foreign trade subtracted a massive 1.25 percentage points from winter GDP growth. The actual data will be reported Tuesday. If the March trade gap did not widen as much as Commerce calculated, then trade was less of a drag on GDP growth."

The ports were crippled by the unions' slowdown actions. I know people on all sides of this issue and I heard about it for months. It was a very big deal here on the West coast and people lost a lot of money, unable to move their products out of the country. I won't be surprised if that had a big part to play in the Q1 GDP slump...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,523
  • May 2, 2015 8:25am May 2, 2015 8:25am
...what bubble?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/daily-...143227505.html
Stock Battle is a new site that allows players to compete for cash prizes based on the one-day returns of a virtual stock portfolio. Competitors pay a small entry fee and then select a group of stocks they believe will outperform those of other players on a given day.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,524
  • May 3, 2015 4:31pm May 3, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} west coast time zone sucks, I can't get to bed before 1am usually then get up at 5:30 to catch the NY open? That shit gets old. I have been looking around at other locations to spend my golden years in, if I get any. Somewhere with a good time zone relative to NY is a consideration....
Central would be great if I didn't have a day job ... . New York would open at a reasonable morning hour ... . Work the markets for a couple hours (tops), and then head off to do whatever it is you're going to do ... . The only sessions that are good evening fits here are either Sydney or Tokyo, which are somewhat of schnooze, even for forex; for London, I would either have to stay up ungodly late or get up ungodly early (which I have done; total drag). Guess there's no ideal zone ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,525
  • May 3, 2015 10:19pm May 3, 2015 10:19pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Central would be great if I didn't have a day job.......
East coast (of Brazil) might work out....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,526
  • May 3, 2015 10:34pm May 3, 2015 10:34pm
gold catching a bid, watching bonds, rumors of inflation, gold could catch a nice move, maybe >$100 in a month, like we saw back in January, I might take a chance on a long call diagonal - or go super bull with verticals perhaps into June...gold, hmmm
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,527
  • May 3, 2015 10:41pm May 3, 2015 10:41pm
Many thanks for the books I love books so I'll buy them soon to read more about how to trade options like a pro

Thanks again ..
  • #8,528
  • May 3, 2015 10:47pm May 3, 2015 10:47pm
Quoting greedtrader
Many thanks for the books I love books so I'll buy them soon to read more about how to trade options like a pro Thanks again ..
I have a shelf full of trading books that I rarely look at, although I read them all. If you like books sure buy them but I would say that money could be better spent elsewhere. The best practical trading resources are online and free. Learn what you can for free and dive right into paper trading (also free) if you want to learn to trade options. Good luck.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,529
  • May 3, 2015 11:01pm May 3, 2015 11:01pm
I probably should have looked at these earnings plays last week, but got busy toward the end of the week and wasn't paying attention: GMCR (Keurig Green Mountain), WHM (Whole Foods), BABA, MGM, DIS, PCLN, GRPN, TSLA, CMCA, HLF, MRO (Marathon Oil), PBR, SCTY (Solar City) ... .

I'm probably most interested in GMCR, WHM, BABA, GRPN, and TSLA because I basically know what they're about; there's a large number of petro/energy sector ER's, but the best ones there from a pure liquidity standpoint would be either PBR or CHK ... .

Probably will have to scratch off PCLN and TSLA -- a bit pricey for strangles ... . Will have to look at the curves for the rest ... . I don't like trades where price is dramatically skewed toward one standard deviation or the other from the get-go ... . The market has already priced in some movement before the report; naturally if it turns out to be grossly incorrect, the result could suck. Moreover, with the amount of money I'm going to be initially devoting to these, I will probably have to be quite picky ... .

Ran into a bit of a SNAFU with the TOS platform; apparently I've got a "vintage" Mac, and it won't run on this particular machine without upgrading the processor (which I ain't gonna do; when the hard drive crashed, took me weeks to get the damn thing back from the nerds and actually trading on the iPad blows; fine for monitoring open trades; not so good to actually look at trades ... ). I may have to rethink using TOS ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,530
  • May 3, 2015 11:08pm May 3, 2015 11:08pm
Quoting greedtrader
Many thanks for the books I love books so I'll buy them soon to read more about how to trade options like a pro Thanks again ..
Dough.com's quite good ... . Just wished they boiled down their videos or had them available in transcript form ... . I can read a lot faster than I can watch the videos, frankly, and sometimes they take an awfully long time to get to the point and then bumble over it a bit in a disorganized fashion ... . That being said, I guess I should be grateful; this crap just wasn't around twenty years ago ... . Frankly, were I to have this kind of education plus this kind of software, I would have never touched an underlying; just doesn't make sense ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,531
  • May 3, 2015 11:16pm May 3, 2015 11:16pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Dough.com's quite good ... . Just wished they boiled down their videos or had them available in transcript form ... . I can read a lot faster than I can watch the videos, frankly, and sometimes they take an awfully long time to get to the point and then bumble over it a bit in a disorganized fashion ... . That being said, I guess I should be grateful; this crap just wasn't around twenty years ago ... . Frankly, were I to have this kind of education plus this kind of software, I would have never touched an underlying; just doesn't make sense ....
the options trading resources available for free now on the 'net are really unmatched in other asset sectors. You can follow along with pro and semi-pro traders on TT and dough and go over and over all the vids and that in and of itself is as good or better than what a mentor that might charge you $thousands for.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,532
  • May 3, 2015 11:18pm May 3, 2015 11:18pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Ran into a bit of a SNAFU with the TOS platform; apparently I've got a "vintage" Mac, and it won't run on this particular machine without upgrading the processor (which I ain't gonna do; when the hard drive crashed, took me weeks to get the damn thing back from the nerds and actually trading on the iPad blows; fine for monitoring open trades; not so good to actually look at trades ... ). I may have to rethink using TOS ... .
I would say a cheap netbook would be worth the price even if the only reason you got it was to run ToS.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,533
  • May 3, 2015 11:20pm May 3, 2015 11:20pm
Quoting The Fool
gold catching a bid, watching bonds, rumors of inflation, gold could catch a nice move, maybe >$100 in a month, like we saw back in January, I might take a chance on a long call diagonal - or go super bull with verticals perhaps into June...gold, hmmm
a first stab, will be shopping more. Super bull setup is m/l a wash, but has lots of time beyond June to adjust for free if the June short vertical holds up.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-03_gld1.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-05-03_gld2.png Size: 36 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,534
  • May 3, 2015 11:27pm May 3, 2015 11:27pm
Quoting The Fool
gold catching a bid, watching bonds, rumors of inflation, gold could catch a nice move, maybe >$100 in a month, like we saw back in January, I might take a chance on a long call diagonal - or go super bull with verticals perhaps into June...gold, hmmm
I need to figure out the economics of gold; I can understand oil, but gold isn't necessarily a supply and demand thing ... . It's more like a risk on/risk off sort of thing in my mind, although some have questioned the inverse relationship between inflation and gold or whether it hedges jack diddly ... . http://www.forbes.com/sites/danielfi...e-a-centurion/

Then again, you get stuff like this, which says there's a direct relationship between interest rates and gold. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-i...220536875.html (rate hike negative for gold prices and gold stocks).

I'll figure it out eventually ... . Thinking about the SPDR option route, though ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,535
  • May 3, 2015 11:33pm May 3, 2015 11:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I would say a cheap netbook would be worth the price even if the only reason you got it was to run ToS.
Ohh, my wife would love that ... . She claims I "hog" the Mac for forex and TastyTrade videos ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,536
  • May 3, 2015 11:44pm May 3, 2015 11:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} a first stab, will be shopping more. Super bull setup is m/l a wash, but has lots of time beyond June to adjust for free if the June short vertical holds up. {image} {image}
Chart looks good for the short vert level to hold up (with a bit of wiggle, I would say).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,537
  • May 3, 2015 11:49pm May 3, 2015 11:49pm
GLD is awfully f'in gappy though ... . Fingers crossed on your getting a fill ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,538
  • May 4, 2015 12:25am May 4, 2015 12:25am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Ohh, my wife would love that ... . She claims I "hog" the Mac for forex and TastyTrade videos ... .
http://www.amazon.com/Chromebook-13-...13+inch+laptop

lots to choose from in cheap but adequate laptops and tablets these days. Most of the time I trade from a 15" HP Envy laptop....one screen, all I need...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,539
  • May 4, 2015 12:38am May 4, 2015 12:38am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://www.amazon.com/Chromebook-13-...13+inch+laptop lots to choose from in cheap but adequate laptops and tablets these days. Most of the time I trade from a 15" HP Envy laptop....one screen, all I need...
It's almost ridiculous what you can get for less than $500 these days ... . I think that Chromebook is about half as much as I paid for the high end iPod when it first came out several years ago ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,540
  • May 4, 2015 12:41am May 4, 2015 12:41am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-m...003557563.html

...soooo, China factory output slumps, Chinese stocks bounce on the expectation that this will mean the PBOC will unleash fresh stimulus measures. Bad news is good news, check.

In the new week, if the NFP number beats expectations, US stocks will slump because that will mean the Fed will be looking at raising the ffr sooner - good news is bad news, check.

Welcome to the bizarro world of macroeconomics in the new century...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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