More Advanced ideas

Following Price...


One of my mentors who knows who he is always said "you have to follow price". I'm in agreement that one must follow price for success.

Guys: i do not think that advanced = simple. I believe the most advanced Is always simple again.

i in no way advocate any particular commercial version of anything...but by way of illustration this commerical system is closest to the basic idea of how i'm following price... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=536397 I've no affiliation to it. But the ideas are sound and similar to my way of following price.

advanced but very very simple

WHEN WE FOLLOW PRICE TRADES COME TO US EASILY AND WE SIMPLY EXECUTE THEM AND TAKE OUR PROFITS. ABSOLUTELY THE WAY IT IS DONE. humbly thankful to all!

Hey There Khalli. Welcome. Thank you for properly introducing yourself. My real name is Chris. I admire your work also. skype me at dagoods 1 if and when you are ready to do the development of the code. You must agree that I'm the owner of all the code, and if i choose to open source it right here, or only give it to the participants, or whatever is most correct as this unfolds, so be it. The purpose must be to help all and at the very least the exe must be shared openly and mql at least shared privately among us like minded traders who are in this together.

Thanks for your consideration

Thank you for sharing your idea , every thing you are mentioned is O.k . and very interesting. sorry for my bad English.

this thread reminds Miner Method to me
high probability trading: multitime frame+fibo+waves

Hi, Brother Dagood....
Not same with this....?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=428204

Welcome tablet8
Welcome dingdong99.

thanks for testing it out.

All Please give some time to post some charts.

@tablet8 i do not follow Miner. I had to google it to even know what it was. If you have something great please post some charts to share.
@dingdong99 I'm seeing there are significant differences brother.

Guys:

http://biblehub.com/ecclesiastes/1-9.htm

Feel free to post some charts with your ideas and questions. I'm happy to discover with ya'll.

15 min pebble wave

becomes

one hour rock

now we look at the 4 hour next........ see what i'm attempting to find?

if the 4 hour gives us a fakeout breakout...would that be interesting to us? if we see the same pattern again...would that be interesting?

Post 19 plus this post give examples of part of what we're looking at in this thread....

updated post 1.... to include reference to post 19 and post 28. folks e1 can now join in to put charts...all who anyone can participate to benefit

Timing isn't everything, it's the only thing....

http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/keywords/timing.html

a Video explanation

one of my youtube channels is here: check it out all kinds of stuff you may enjoy https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmZ...DehBweDzPKBhag

video shows some concept>>>>

The above video is exceptionally good. Of particular note:

Fractal indicator candlestick pattern is NOT a fractal pattern.
"What is a fractal pattern? a fractal pattern is a pattern that copies itself from one timeframe to another."
"Two financial instruments that are positively correlated...a pattern has been formed..." etc.

yep watching that video again....

I'm an intraday trader. I lose about 2 out of every 3 trades, but profit factor ~1.6. My results for the last 10 trading days were: +1.6%, +1.5%, +3.2%, -0.65%, -1%, -1%, +5.2%, 0%, -0.9%. On average I lose about 3 trades everyday, the risk % ranges from 0.33% to 1% (I scale in, never averaging down, always use a SL, and I aggressively protect my trades initially, but then give the trade more space later on once it has proven to start running.)

imo there are only 4 ideas one needs for intraday trading.

1. Trend trading is profitable ever since markets exist. I don't know why, no one knows why, probably human nature and what George Soros call Reflexivity.

2. Past volatility predicts future volatility well. This is statistically proven. Volatility is well modelled by a fractionally integrated process (Andersen et. al., 2001) so there's significant persistence. just look at the daily ranges, it's about the same each day, and look at 15 min chart ATR, choose a setting like 200 period, it persists more or less.

3. Trends are like waves, they ebb and flow. Some call this the fractal nature of markets... Counter-trend on lower TFs = good opp to get in. Rmb everyone is looking at the same price chart. When you are scared to death, so is everyone else. Once the last price-chasing loser decides to sell, the downtrend on the 1 min chart is over. (Hint: Tick Volume matters to some extent if you're using a ECN broker.)

4. The best times to trade are London open and NY open. Why? High volatility = good if you know what you are doing. There's strong tendency for a big move to start and follow through.

Bonus(5): Unexpected news outcomes can create some of the best runaway trains.

None of them are complex. As humans we like to complicate things, unnecessarily.

If you can't handle a high loss ratio, then intraday trading is going to be tough. trying to grab 10 pips with a 90 pip SL is suicide.

One last thing... Trade based on FACTS, not superstition. How sure are you that the S/R you identify actually has an edge? Is it because you feel so or have you actually look at the statistics? How do you know when it has stopped working? For this reason, I never rely on such 'edges' that are unproven. When in doubt, choose something randomly, don't try to be smart. If you choose randomly, at least you wouldn't be wrong, you would just get average results. In statistics this is called relying on the null hypothesis. Then collect data and try to see if your theory/method is statsitically significant.

When in doubt, go back to the data. The data never lies. People lie. Your mind lies.

***

I'm a bridge player. Trading is a lot like Bridge. Some plays work only 50% of the time, but you got to take them everytime without flinching. You do your best with the cards you are dealt; you can make all the right decisions but still lose points. You can do the right thing and lose, do the wrong thing and win. You can win the battle but lose the war. To win in the long run, you must take the percentage action. You have to play based on facts, and not superstitions. You have to plan ahead and execute every step perfectly. You have to incorporate new information as they come in. You have to move on after a bad hand and not get too excited over a good score. You have to focus on the hand in front of you and not your scores.

Most importantly, in Bridge, the 'pass' bid is underrated and underused. People overbid, bid too much all the time. Learn to pass. Learn to pass on the bad opportunities.

***

BTW. There's a concept called anti-fragility (see Nassim Nicholas Taleb) and I think systems that have high win-ratio are especially fragile. They tend to either break one of the fundamental laws of trading (i.e. not using a stop-loss) or are overly curve-fitted and bound to lose effectiveness eventually. Tbh I'm scared by any system that has win ratio > 65%.

The more you can rely on universal principles the more likely your system will not fail over the long-term. I'm confident my methods will still work 10 years from now as long as markets continue to 1) move and have trends, 2) exhibit persistent volatility and daily ranges, 3) be volatile around london open and ny open. The simplest things work as long as you accept the fact that losses are inevitable and deal with it. It's so simple but it took me > 10,000 hours (like the TS) to really understand and learn it.

That's a nugget.

Take heed.

A very insightful post in a very good thread, IMHO. Thanks to those who have shared their knowledge here.

My edge involves 1 and 2. This is all I use.

1) Countertrend, candlestick and bollinger bands
2) If price is not moving in the expected direction it is going to go the other way more vigorously. (although disarmingly simple you will know how effective it is once you know how to use it)

Two extras that I have learnt by losing tons of money:

3) Look at patterns for 10000 hours. Develop a feel for the market. Bruce Lee once said : "I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times". Pick one pair and sleep with it. You will find she has a rhythm and time and way of doing her moves. Remember, the number of markets you trade does not increase your probability of making money. That is because, sure you will have more opportunities, but you will also find yourself confronting more traps, more bad opportunities, more news releases and unforeseen events. On the other hand if you practice your skill on one instrument, you reduce externalities while improving your chances of understanding the 'internalities'.
And finally,
4) Trading is more like surfing and less like rocket science. In the end all you need to make money is to be able to tell whether any pair is going up or down in the next few minutes. That's it. Keep things simple. Forget indicators; they are just there to confuse you.

Thats all you need to make money.

Welcome David. Thank you for the kind words. I'm really honored to hear that from you. Truly. Sounds like you've seen the light already good on ya brother!

Where are the advanced ideas?

Jesus and bible quotes?

ummm...no

@ shellsnail Welcome. i can't over-think it. Thanks for sharing your wisdom here.

yeah...I love you too.
What about your post is good?

Here are the true facts: What i've already shown so far is conceptual in nature and quite frankly has never been shown on forex factory as far as i can tell. If it has please point me to it. All would consider that good work, except apparently you. You obviously haven't taken the time to understand. How many threads have shown demonstrations in real time as i have done? I demonstrated in real time with my charts and shown the real way the concepts play in real life markets. The problem is not the material. The problem is you. The fact that you alone find no advanced ideas in this thread speaks for itself. This is a discussion thread. Seriously man, why can't you just move on if you have nothing good to add? why must you try to put others down to put yourself up? I think the truth is obvious to all readers and those who've taken the time to have an understanding.

http://biblehub.com/john/10-32.htm


You are banned. Very sad. I wish you well anyway. Good luck.

Welcome. Very nice First post. Thanks. I'm a believer that we can all team up and do better together.