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Let's Trade Options

  • #8,501
  • Apr 30, 2015 9:59pm Apr 30, 2015 9:59pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} let's see, they sold Jun FXE $105/$100 puts when FXE was at $106.81, for $0.97 credit, and today FXE is at $110.3x, and that trade is worth $0.36 (they've netted >60%), so typical tt style, that trade has definitely worked out & I won't be surprised if they squeeze another dime out of it at the most and then bail. Several of their best vids go into trade management, i.e., when is the best time to get out of a winning trade, for instance, and they use some statistics on backtested trades to show that it doesn't pay to wait around to get the...
Thanks for the info on the after hours trade ... . Because I've still got the day job, I'll just have to set up the trade as good for day and then it fills or doesn't ... . Won't have time to tweak a leg by a penny just to get a fill ... .

As far as bailing on winners, it looks like a lot of the traders in the "follow" section bail if they're at least half-way there, which I imagine is a good rule-of-thumb (but for the commissions, ugh ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,502
  • Apr 30, 2015 10:29pm Apr 30, 2015 10:29pm
there's lots of ways to trade options and you can work out a routine to mesh with your work/life. There are lots of pro options traders who are in n out of 100's of trades per day. If I do 15 trades in a week its a very busy week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,503
  • Apr 30, 2015 11:03pm Apr 30, 2015 11:03pm
I want to keep things pretty laid back ... . Avoid stuff that I will have to really stay on top of and look at stuff 25-55 days expiration, which leaves me plenty of time to contemplate and figure out how to deal with problematic trades I put on ... . I think working out how to exit f'd up stuff is probably the most creative part and the most challenging ... .

Unfortunately, that probably means that I won't be doing many earnings plays, which are generally short term ... . Prefer not to be juggling too many balls if I can help it with the time I've got available ... . 100's of trades is absolute madness; there's got to be videos out there as to how frenetic that kind of trading must be ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,504
  • May 1, 2015 12:23am May 1, 2015 12:23am
Quoting ZebraSquirl
Unfortunately, that probably means that I won't be doing many earnings plays, which are generally short term ..... .
actually, there are lots of ER trade strategies you can do that go very quickly, so you can plan them over the days going into the ER and then make the trade on ER day & you'll be done, win or lose, over the next day or so. I'm on the west coast and my "lunch hour" coincides with the last hour of trading in NY, so I often spend that time trading. That and an hour or so in the morning at the NY open is all I really need, anything else is overkill...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,505
  • Edited 10:04am May 1, 2015 8:45am | Edited 10:04am
Quoting The Fool
...I have had trades that appear to have been filled 10 minutes or so after the bell. So....
Index ETF options, like SPY, QQQ, IWM options, VIX options... work for additional 15 minutes after RTH ends.
Other equity options (like AAPL, FB... USO also) are closed the moment RTH ends.

Ok, lets see now what we have... bulls making a trap in premarket? /ES around critical levels... IMO above 2093/94 is bulls territory. Shorted it small @ 2093, fook it.

addon
closed 1/2 @ 2089, the rest is free to sink to oblivion, I don't care... SL @ BE
addon2
stopped for other 1/2.. mofo
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,506
  • May 1, 2015 9:52am May 1, 2015 9:52am
hey thanks SDog, I did not know that about the etf options.

Well, you had to expect a BTFD reaction for the US indices. I also thought WTI might have a hard time busting thru $60, which it nudged up toward overnight. I am m/l just riding down the theta curve on SPY trades now, which is the bulk of my current books...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,507
  • May 1, 2015 10:45am May 1, 2015 10:45am
Quoting The Fool
hey thanks SDog, I did not know that about the etf options. Well, you had to expect a BTFD reaction for the US indices. I also thought WTI might have a hard time busting thru $60, which it nudged up toward overnight. I am m/l just riding down the theta curve on SPY trades now, which is the bulk of my current books...
Yes, I agree... also -> the up move was too far, too quick...

After oil’s high, (sharp) fall may be on cards

For that I agree with some of the people from the article above... too far, too quick. Supply is still massive, Iran card is still on the table.

Yeah, don't you just hate when they pull out these fuckin' boogeyman cards... Greece, Iran, Putin, extraterrestrials...
worse than Mexican TV shows of 199 episodes... this one was absolute hit among rural housewives in my country
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,508
  • May 1, 2015 10:49am May 1, 2015 10:49am
Quoting StrayDog
this one was absolute hit among rural housewives in my country
ay, Dios mioooo!...(don't say 'rural housewives' to me while I'm trying to concentrate on....uh...finance, right...)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,509
  • May 1, 2015 10:56am May 1, 2015 10:56am
SPY not been able to break $210...if I had cojones, I would try a scalp on a weekly call for another test up there. Sadly tho, the market ripped off mis cojones a long time ago....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,510
  • May 1, 2015 11:07am May 1, 2015 11:07am
Quoting The Fool
SPY not been able to break $210..

Yeah... no bullshit PA allowed above that

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: frka.png Size: 204 KB


common lets go down... /ES must break down 2088 first... tough level so far
notice the possible bear dvg...
and reason for SnP going UP on Friday after big down day yesterday is what exactly? Idk, seems like sellers are taking control here
or I am just delusional, like always? bwaahahahahahaha... I think I am the only mofo in the whole 25 floor building that works on May 1st
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,511
  • May 1, 2015 12:03pm May 1, 2015 12:03pm
UST's under heavy pressure, still...every day I whack myself in the head with a big skillet for missing that TLT short.

"Credit anticipates, equity confirms" is the old saying. Credit (the bond market) is anticipating the Fed's (finally, at last, omg) ffr hike....what will equities have to do to confirm that fear?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,512
  • May 1, 2015 1:03pm May 1, 2015 1:03pm
Quoting StrayDog
... or I am just delusional, like always? ...
yep... another break out from the range, another victory for the bulls...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,513
  • May 1, 2015 1:31pm May 1, 2015 1:31pm
still a sideways market til somebody makes a run for it. Sideways works for me....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,514
  • May 1, 2015 1:42pm May 1, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting The Fool
still a sideways market til somebody makes a run for it. Sideways works for me....
DOW has to pass 18031 for a continued bull run in may otherwise I'll be looking to short come Monday, on AAPL looking for 113 area before next earnings report
  • #8,515
  • May 1, 2015 3:39pm May 1, 2015 3:39pm
weekly chart on FACEBOOK looks like it wants some serious bear action over the coming months
  • #8,516
  • May 1, 2015 5:32pm May 1, 2015 5:32pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yes, I agree... also -> the up move was too far, too quick... After oils high, (sharp) fall may be on cards For that I agree with some of the people from the article above... too far, too quick. Supply is still massive, Iran card is still on the table. Yeah, don't you just hate when they pull out these fuckin' boogeyman cards... Greece, Iran, Putin, extraterrestrials... worse than Mexican TV shows of 199 episodes... this one was absolute...
That's why I was thinking OIL Jun 15 Short Call 13/14 Vertical (or something similar; got a paper trade for a June 15 Short Call at 13 for .25 (underwater, so far ... )) or a similar set-up in USO ... . I don't like the POP %ages for just long puts, but it might be worth a small wager doing things that way with the goal being to bail from the position on a favorable dip; who the hell knows how big any dip might be. Looking at the CL chart, though, bitch appears to have broken through that mid to late December consolidation area (a hair short of 60), albeit on fairly subdued volume; 55 now lookin' like support ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,517
  • May 1, 2015 5:54pm May 1, 2015 5:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} actually, there are lots of ER trade strategies you can do that go very quickly, so you can plan them over the days going into the ER and then make the trade on ER day & you'll be done, win or lose, over the next day or so. I'm on the west coast and my "lunch hour" coincides with the last hour of trading in NY, so I often spend that time trading. That and an hour or so in the morning at the NY open is all I really need, anything else is overkill...
Excellent point (and lucky dog for being in a good time zone). I'm in Iowa (CST), which is not ideal for either the open or the close, but I can see setting up earnings plays several days ahead of time ... . Dough's Robyn (who appears to beating the pants off "Tom's Team") seems to get in and out of her earnings plays in fairly short order: couple days before, day of, or a couple of days after ... (bitch does a shitload of ER strangles).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #8,518
  • May 1, 2015 8:03pm May 1, 2015 8:03pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/prosha...200500989.html

well, you knew this was coming - UVXY gets a 5:1 reverse split, effective 5/20....good
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,519
  • May 1, 2015 9:03pm May 1, 2015 9:03pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} DOW has to pass 18031 for a continued bull run in may otherwise I'll be looking to short come Monday, on AAPL looking for 113 area before next earnings report
gossip is China will have more QE in the pipe, maybe out Sunday night. Idk, maybe aliens will show up and declare more QE, kinda running out of CB printing ink...of course next week we have NFP, watch out for a big beat - a hefty number will revive the Fed fear noise....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,520
  • May 1, 2015 9:08pm May 1, 2015 9:08pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
(and lucky dog for being in a good time zone).
west coast time zone sucks, I can't get to bed before 1am usually then get up at 5:30 to catch the NY open? That shit gets old. I have been looking around at other locations to spend my golden years in, if I get any. Somewhere with a good time zone relative to NY is a consideration....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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