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Let's Trade Options

  • #8,461
  • Apr 29, 2015 3:02pm Apr 29, 2015 3:02pm
we need some more ER fails....the bears smell blood!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,462
  • Apr 29, 2015 3:20pm Apr 29, 2015 3:20pm
SDog we got to USO $20 a little early, sitting right on the sweetspot, will have to watch it as we head into May expiry. I have May USO call calendars at $20, $21 and $23.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,463
  • Apr 29, 2015 3:39pm Apr 29, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting The Fool
UST's did not budge, see TLT, /ZB et al.....the markets are only taking so much punch as long as that ffr hike possibility is on the horizon sometime this year. We may not have inflation, but we have credit inflation (rates are inching up) ... tomorrow the ECI will be watched closely to see if we have wage inflation, too.....
financials were up, check BAC, JPM, etc - sniffing out that rate hike juice - if we start printing some good US econ data in May - Q2, US equities are gonna slide, we might get a May bounce into new high territory, but that could be the last gasp for the bulls...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,464
  • Apr 29, 2015 3:53pm Apr 29, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting The Fool
we need some more ER fails....the bears smell blood!
YELP whacked, BIDU missed....omg China...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,465
  • Apr 29, 2015 4:14pm Apr 29, 2015 4:14pm
" ... the minimization of failure ..." it has to end...

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/fed-s...203500800.html
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,466
  • Apr 29, 2015 5:00pm Apr 29, 2015 5:00pm
Patti is nice. Big day for ER's Thurs, lots of oil co's, FSLR on my radar...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102633173?__s...&doc=102633173
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,467
  • Apr 29, 2015 9:41pm Apr 29, 2015 9:41pm
does natgas have a snowball's chance in Hell of rallying? Ever?
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,468
  • Edited 10:38pm Apr 29, 2015 10:10pm | Edited 10:38pm
Quoting The Fool
FSLR on my radar
FSLR IVR is pretty flat

...might be hard to b/e if do both these weekly verticals - could put in a sell/close order for about $0.05 +/- on both and hope it gets filled on the loser, and the winner roars into full profit...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,469
  • Apr 30, 2015 1:30am Apr 30, 2015 1:30am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} FSLR IVR is pretty flat
well, very low expectations are at least easier to beat...

http://news.investors.com/042915-750...lled&ven=yahoo
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,470
  • Apr 30, 2015 6:14am Apr 30, 2015 6:14am
Hey Fool. Quick question. I've been watching TasteTrade on youtube and listening to some options podcasts. There seems to be a small inherent premium when selling options, at least in the US stock market. Is this option premium present with forex options as well? Have you found any research in this regard?
  • #8,471
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:36am Apr 30, 2015 7:36am
Quoting fxsafe6
Hey Fool. Quick question. I've been watching TasteTrade on youtube and listening to some options podcasts. There seems to be a small inherent premium when selling options, at least in the US stock market. Is this option premium present with forex options as well? Have you found any research in this regard?
not sure exactly what you are asking, but options "premium" is the value of an option related to its implied volatility. All options, including fx options, are valued based on their implied volatility - but, of course, their IV varies based on their historical volatility. Now, I'm not an expert in trading fx options - I limit my fx options trades to options on the euro etf FXE. There may be differences in the way fx futures options are priced. Hope that helps...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,472
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:53am Apr 30, 2015 7:53am
Quoting The Fool
we need some more ER fails....the bears smell blood!
XOM, COP up on ER's. XOM earnings down 46% in q1, beats estimates....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,473
  • Apr 30, 2015 7:59am Apr 30, 2015 7:59am
US unemployment claims at lowest level since y2k, ECI inches up, the Fed can not ignore, omg they're behind the curve! Look out! A ffr hike is coming! Sometime in our lifetime! Godzilla!!!!

UST futures continue their slide....bring out the hawks...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,474
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:30am Apr 30, 2015 8:30am
I didn't like that green spinner from yesterday and I want to see some solid red candles for SPY to close out the week. Boogie chillun!
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,475
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:47am Apr 30, 2015 8:47am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} not sure exactly what you are asking, but options "premium" is the value of an option related to its implied volatility. All options, including fx options, are valued based on their implied volatility - but, of course, their IV varies based on their historical volatility. Now, I'm not an expert in trading fx options - I limit my fx options trades to options on the euro etf FXE. There may be differences in the way fx futures options are priced. Hope that helps...
One of the basic strategies that most advocate is selling options to capitalize on high historical IV. Their research, presented in one of the videos, showed that market participants systematically overprice options, in simple terms, realized IV turns out to be lower then implied IV.

What broker would you suggest for trading options? I want to start demoing this strategy.
  • #8,476
  • Apr 30, 2015 8:52am Apr 30, 2015 8:52am
Quoting fxsafe6
I want to start demoing this strategy.
If you're resident outside the USA then the only US broker I know of that is open to you is Interactive Brokers. Good luck. Feel free to post up your trades, demo or otherwise and we will comment on them & learn from each other.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,477
  • Edited 9:19am Apr 30, 2015 9:04am | Edited 9:19am
sold a SPY May4 $213/$215 calls vert for $0.48

also May4 $213/$214.5 for $0.40....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,478
  • Apr 30, 2015 9:40am Apr 30, 2015 9:40am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} If you're resident outside the USA then the only US broker I know of that is open to you is Interactive Brokers. Good luck. Feel free to post up your trades, demo or otherwise and we will comment on them & learn from each other.
Thanks! Will do.
  • #8,479
  • Apr 30, 2015 10:33am Apr 30, 2015 10:33am
Quoting The Fool
I didn't like that green spinner from yesterday and I want to see some solid red candles for SPY to close out the week. Boogie chillun! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_iSFwPXjkU
Hey TF! Good stuff.

About PA... annoying as hell --> as usual.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,480
  • Apr 30, 2015 11:41am Apr 30, 2015 11:41am
Quoting StrayDog
PA... annoying as hell --> as usual.
I can't complain when I'm seeing red. What are you into these days, bud? Any more ER plays tempting ya?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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