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When will the dollar strengthen?

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  • First Post: Aug 9, 2006 6:07pm Aug 9, 2006 6:07pm
Just wanted to everyone's feedback on when/if they expect the dollar to strengthen. (and specifically why you think it will do so) I have an economics professor who has some ideas on it but I wanted to see y'all's take on it.
Quoting americanteek
Just wanted to everyone's feedback on when/if they expect the dollar to strengthen. (and specifically why you think it will do so) I have an economics professor who has some ideas on it but I wanted to see y'all's take on it.
Better idea.

Post the prof and perhaps we'll tell ya what we think......
The day will come when you lose faith on the Dollar.http://www.talkforex.com/attachments...JZSfAmNoz2.gif
凹凸 only
Quoting Samuri
The day will come when you lose faith on the Dollar.http://www.talkforex.com/attachments...JZSfAmNoz2.gif
Exactly, I totally agree...When everyone loses faith in the USD, it will eventually bottom & start it's rally...


Thanks,

Nader
It is good to some extent the Dollar is weak. This makes Americas products more affordable to the overseas markets. In time they buy our products which money gets moved back and forth. Look at USD/JPY. This an EXAMPLE. In time they buy Harley Davidsons because they can buy 3 for what 2 costed last year (Remember this an Example) they may only buy 2 Harleys with all the goodies. As money moves through the markets, in time it will build USD strength. So many things to observe here. True, America imports many products from overseas, but, many markets are third world economies and their money is weak against the dollar. What will hurt is the Strong Curriencies as it will increase the Trade Deficit. So, watch this Debt! As the Dollar weakens people conserve more on spending and this decreases demand on Foriegn products.Over TIME this builds USD strength. REMEMBER this "Over Time" may take a year. Maybe less, maybe more. I looking at maybe more and watch the Trade Deficit, Oil Prices and even Wars etc. Remember, soon the war in Iraq be over and America will drop a few Billion, well, more like Billions, rebuilding it. This takes TIME. This not very detailed, but, hope you see the scope of things.
I see the dollar starting a strong bullish trend very soon, before months end. I have an Elliott Wave count that makes me believe this.
Quoting americanteek
Just wanted to everyone's feedback on when/if they expect the dollar to strengthen. (and specifically why you think it will do so) I have an economics professor who has some ideas on it but I wanted to see y'all's take on it.
Tomorrow. Because it was down today.

How much strength are you looking for exactly?
Quoting MoneyMa$ter

Post the prof and perhaps we'll tell ya what we think......
Next time I talk with him I will ask him if its ok for me to post his name and his personal thoughts on what will happen. Rather than supporting his theories, I was more interested to see if anyone else had any thoughts on the subject. For example, in the tuesday report the fed stated that the inflationary pressures were likely to moderate over time, yet some inflationary concerns still exist. It notes specifically energy costs and the slowing housing markets. I work in real estate (although not residential, I do commercial appraisals) and the effects of massive development has drastically changed the local economy. Now that things are slowing down and interest rates are still (relatively) high, more foreclosures are likely and many construction companies are receiving far less bids. Houses are selling slower and prices are drastically higher than it they were a year or two ago, even in low income areas. The company that I work for has had to shift mid-level employees from the residential to commercial department because there was not enough work. Although the very specific examples I am using are all local, they are in no way unique to my area. All around the country people are seeing the housing market slow way, way down.

Furthermore, people are getting very used to $3 a gallon for gas. This combined with higher prices for diesel (and therefore anything that rides on a truck, which is everything), heating oil, natural gas, and of course electricity.

Since consumer behavior is so inelastic when it comes to housing and energy expenses, these are major markets for increased prices to drive inflation up.

What will this mean for the US economy? Will inflation curb itself dispite higher energy costs? I am talking about the next few months and what we as traders should all be expecting out of the USD. No crystal balls of course, but some informed opinions might make for an interesting discussion.

Darkstar - I am not talking about just a few hundred pips here, I mean a very large move, something that would take months to happen. Any thoughts on the short term?
Perhaps a little cynical, and don't assume my political affiliation, but I believe it will take the Democrats in the US to take over before strength returns.
Quoting learningtheropes
Perhaps a little cynical, and don't assume my political affiliation, but I believe it will take the Democrats in the US to take over before strength returns.
reason being?
The Democrats had a surplus before the Republicans turn that into a huge deficit.



Quoting americanteek
reason being?
How about the running of the usd bull for the next few weeks? Suppose it all depends on US data now for the fed to hike again though. Dollar index is a bit too hard to gauge but looks like it could go higher before the inevitable drop to zero value (usd = peso) over the next decade.
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Quoting Yardie
The Democrats had a surplus before the Republicans turn that into a huge deficit.
As I disclaimed, don't assume my political ties, but, as one may conspire, maybe the dems are fiscally superior, or, on the other hand, maybe the republicans lay the dirty groundwork and the Dems get to bask in the glory once the table is set and the "people" have coincidentally tired of "red state boys"?????? No matter, the trend is there..........coincidence or not! I know many a right-winger that is even admitting they are becoming less tolerant of our current administratio..do you all see a shift in power???? Correlation to USD?? We will have to see......

Cynicism aside, I would point out, that true strength and weakness seems to take so long to develop that we should focus on the many ways to capitalize in forex regardless. There are strategies, and people that are successful on an hour to hour basis, and even a month to month basis....so let the press and the politicians "wag the dog", and let us "make hay while the sun is shining"....which it can very often in forex!!!! I have the motto to be successful here regardless of the move(s).

BTW- I have a 24 hour 0:00-0:00 CST strategy that is working like clock work ( ) as we speak, so I'm posting to kill time, going to close 1 of 3 lots long on EUR now at 10 pips Long..let you know how the other 2 fair later!
Quoting Yardie
The Democrats had a surplus before the Republicans turn that into a huge deficit.
This shouldn't become a silly political discussion on which ideology produces better economies. So lets not even go there - instead, lets talk about actual reasons why the economy would be behave that way.

Instead of making an argument like, democrats support xxxxxx and that helps the economy, you go straight for the bumper-sticker logic that the US BUDGET (which, believe it or not, is different than the ECONOMY and the strength of USD) was bringing in more than it was spending for a few years, but its not now, so that means that we need to elect another democrat to office. Right.

Logically you are using correlation as evidence of causation (or if you want to get all fancy its post hoc ergo propter hoc). Its like saying, "when I drive to work, the sun is in the east, but when I drive home, its in the west - so the sun's position relative to the earth depends on where I am going."

You assume that
1. ANY democrat that would be elected would have the exact same fiscal policies as previous democrats,
2. Parties actually control the economy,
3. Because two things happened at the same time before, it will happen again.
4. Circumstances outside the control of politicians don't effect the dollar.

How about some reasons
Quoting pippy le pur
How about the running of the usd bull for the next few weeks? Suppose it all depends on US data now for the fed to hike again though. Dollar index is a bit too hard to gauge but looks like it could go higher before the inevitable drop to zero value (usd = peso) over the next decade.
Interesting point, the insane moves of the peso have always fascinated me, as I travel to mexico often
Quoting americanteek
This shouldn't become a silly political discussion on which ideology produces better economies. So lets not even go there - instead, lets talk about actual reasons why the economy would be behave that way.

Instead of making an argument like, democrats support xxxxxx and that helps the economy, you go straight for the bumper-sticker logic that the US BUDGET (which, believe it or not, is different than the ECONOMY and the strength of USD) was bringing in more than it was spending for a few years, but its not now, so that means that we need to elect another democrat to office. Right.

Logically you are using correlation as evidence of causation (or if you want to get all fancy its post hoc ergo propter hoc). Its like saying, "when I drive to work, the sun is in the east, but when I drive home, its in the west - so the sun's position relative to the earth depends on where I am going."

You assume that
1. ANY democrat that would be elected would have the exact same fiscal policies as previous democrats,
2. Parties actually control the economy,
3. Because two things happened at the same time before, it will happen again.
4. Circumstances outside the control of politicians don't effect the dollar.

How about some reasons
Did I say I'm a Democrat???
I don't profess to predict or judge any of the above.......remember the term cynicism in my last post??? I have no political agenda......simply stated, if a monumental shift like budget deficit (or creation of the internet) can be clearly seen changing for better or worse.....it will somehow equate to the american public at large as one political party knowing their stuff or the other making FUBAR of it. Did I want to create a poltical debate? No.....(hence my numerous disclaimers) My point is that true strength or weakness in a currency is not an overnite event and is a long process and credit is taken (or criticism directed) by those in control.......however, I (maybe just I) feel that politics and media can easily skew sentiment away from its true trend during the interim.......look at how the interpretation of Fed Speak makes people, media, analysts, politicians, etc go "ga-ga". I'm all about taking advantage of these idiosyncrasies, when they present themselves. No harm meant, or intent to be "silly"......actually just feeding off Darkstar's comment, although my consensus was continued weakness until at least the London open...

I will respectfully back-off and not post unless I have high confidence my comments are purely economy based in this thread.

Best wishes in your research.....really.
BTW- my other 2 long EUR lots......(1st of 3 made 1st 10 pip target), now 2nd hit +20 pip target, then the 3rd immediately busted thru for it's +30 gaol......60 pips, in the black Jack.......now it seems there is retracement for some dollar strength, but I'm out all together

Only posted this here b/c I mentioned the trade in an earlier post.....if this strategy is consistent, maybe I will create a different thread.

I'm going to bed, catch ya manana.
and think it will take 2 months to recover his health (Dollar).
Attached Image
Since I am not American -- I really do not care much about whether the Republican or the Democrat is in power. What I am getting at is that people often site the deficit (trade and budget) as the potential killer of the American economy and to an extension the USD. They also cite the huge and rising debt (which is related to the aforementioned deficit). This is why Warren Buffet and others are very bearish on the USD long term.



Quoting americanteek
This shouldn't become a silly political discussion on which ideology produces better economies. So lets not even go there - instead, lets talk about actual reasons why the economy would be behave that way.

Instead of making an argument like, democrats support xxxxxx and that helps the economy, you go straight for the bumper-sticker logic that the US BUDGET (which, believe it or not, is different than the ECONOMY and the strength of USD) was bringing in more than it was spending for a few years, but its not now, so that means that we need to elect another democrat to office. Right.

Logically you are using correlation as evidence of causation (or if you want to get all fancy its post hoc ergo propter hoc). Its like saying, "when I drive to work, the sun is in the east, but when I drive home, its in the west - so the sun's position relative to the earth depends on where I am going."

You assume that
1. ANY democrat that would be elected would have the exact same fiscal policies as previous democrats,
2. Parties actually control the economy,
3. Because two things happened at the same time before, it will happen again.
4. Circumstances outside the control of politicians don't effect the dollar.

How about some reasons
Don't forget, Warren Buffet was bearish last year also, and he lost millions....Gos to show u cannot predict the market...................................



Quoting Yardie
Since I am not American -- I really do not care much about whether the Republican or the Democrat is in power. What I am getting at is that people often site the deficit (trade and budget) as the potential killer of the American economy and to an extension the USD. They also cite the huge and rising debt (which is related to the aforementioned deficit). This is why Warren Buffet and others are very bearish on the USD long term.
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