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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #52,261
  • Edited 10:19am Apr 22, 2015 9:58am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting Jacque
hi frens. i have been poking ard gann's work tunnel thru the air and the deeper i go, the darker it become. it made me believe there is a secret that seems so near and reachable - just a little more. it planted into my mind, immeasurable thirst and belief in that golden grail. so much so that i had to refresh what i learnt on thread again to regain my sanity. is especially danger where you could just easily google ttta decoded and getting tons of that dark stuff promoising you instant immeasureable wealth. imo, the only thing that is useful in the...
hi, jacque, hope u are doing well, with regards to tunnel thru the air, there is more to it than meets the eye, and the answer is very easy and u have known it all along, there is no holy grail, what gann was trying to teach, is the something akin to the blitzkrieg, very little people truly understand gann, gann trades both fundamentals and technicals, and he uses technicals to manage the trade, if u cross reference with Jesse Livermore's book, u will see both mention general conditions
ever thought why gann says he uses science, and maths, and the 2 laws, the natural law and the law of vibration? He trades commodities, he studies geography, his dates, they are seasonality dates based on geographical studies, he trades technology stocks, so he studies how technology changes. His maths are his pyramiding strategies, what fti has shown us. As for the 2 laws, it should be apparent. So the holy grail was all along, the fundamentals and technicals, and if u did it with the mo here, its the blitzkrieg
it took me awhile to understood that, but there was no secret, the answer was there all along, fundamentals and technicals, money management, and mindset, that's all there is to it, that was when I understood the third chapter, which is the blitzkrieg
though I am trying to establish my own style of blitzkrieg, i made some minor changes for the blitzkrieg to suit low capitalization accounts and alternative rescue strategies using options together with spot but that will have to wait till I accumulate a proper sum of money to test its efficiency
his foreword abt the 3 purposes, those are where the gem lies, the rest of the book are but examples of instructions to guide the reader, gann writes the story really well, analyzing his character's personality yields the mindset, analyzing his trades shows he talks abt the science which are essentially fundamental analysis and price action and money management of pyramiding, so whatever was in the book was in this thread all long, save for the fundamental portion which u have to discover for urself
  • #52,262
  • Apr 22, 2015 10:16am Apr 22, 2015 10:16am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi, jacque, hope u are doing well, with regards to tunnel thru the air, there is more to it than meets the eye, and the answer is very easy and u have known it all along, there is no holy grail,
Nicely put......

FTI also teaches us more than just the maths.....
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,263
  • Edited 11:12am Apr 22, 2015 10:31am | Edited 11:12am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Nicely put...... FTI also teaches us more than just the maths.....
hi, alexandria, thx, the 3 kingdoms is 1 way to understand the fundamental happening in real time as currencies are being traded around, which can show what state and how the market reacts to the news and numbers itself which really probe the fundamentals of the currencies. But there is more too, if we learn how fundamental traders like George Soros trade and think about and valuate situations, added with the blitzkrieg, and used with options, it becomes a very powerful technique. The stronger technique derived from the other techniques, is when u could account for multiple situations and group those situations together to produce a risk adjusted high reward low risk situation by studying what the situation is comprised of, how to speculate multiple situations simultaneously at once, or even speculate all situations at the same time, actively managing each situation and pressing the attack as the situation slowly unfolds and become more probable while lowering risk. That is my current course of study.
  • #52,264
  • Apr 22, 2015 3:45pm Apr 22, 2015 3:45pm
Quoting alexandria
Thanks to FTI went short, then long and then short all good... yup every one....be flexible and adapt...use the tools we have been given.......starting to sink in a bit more.... rigidity kills..... so does ego. Regards
aayeeee
we don't predict, we only ride
  • #52,265
  • Edited 6:42am Apr 23, 2015 2:29am | Edited 6:42am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi, alexandria, thx, the 3 kingdoms is 1 way to understand the fundamental happening in real time as currencies are being traded around, which can show what state and how the market reacts to the news and numbers itself which really probe the fundamentals of the currencies. But there is more too, if we learn how fundamental traders like George Soros trade and think about and valuate situations, added with the blitzkrieg, and used with options, it becomes a very powerful technique. The stronger technique derived from the other techniques,...
Wow I am not sure where this is going....... need to think about what you are saying. FTI also uses news etc etc ... it is a dangerous world out there unless we have tools to face it and win..... it is terrain we are in that helps guide us to possibilities (this means tech/fundamentals and feel and changing landscape).

RoK is just an element..... maybe it is not much.... maybe it is a lot......nothing is set......let the story unfold..... do the best.

I will think some more about what you are saying..... and I am going to read TTTA again... only read it once....and I took from it same as you.

Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,266
  • Apr 23, 2015 2:30am Apr 23, 2015 2:30am
Quoting cakrajaya
{quote} aayeeee

Thank you for your support..... slowly slowly I am improving..... long journey


Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,267
  • Apr 23, 2015 8:49am Apr 23, 2015 8:49am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi, jacque, hope u are doing well, with regards to tunnel thru the air, there is more to it than meets the eye, and the answer is very easy and u have known it all along, there is no holy grail, what gann was trying to teach, is the something akin to the blitzkrieg, very little people truly understand gann, gann trades both fundamentals and technicals, and he uses technicals to manage the trade, if u cross reference with Jesse Livermore's book, u will see both mention general conditions ever thought why gann says he uses science, and maths,...

hi cookie, yes i am nice seeing you and your conclusion on ttta. pages 195++ was the clearest to me in terms of his trading technique. the rest of the books were fuzzy stuff. i never saw the diamonds or whatever secret that was hidden in "plane sight" as fti put it or whatever that were in the planes mentioned in the later part of the book. instead i only saw whatever that was in plain sight i.e. pages195++ and this was the easiest. when you search high and low only to have it right in front of you all this time.

and about the diamonds, i worked it out and posted it previously. i think is simple, is just about spiralling in and out. look at the trees and you will see the same thing.

would like to just highlight that blitzkreig is something that fti's further developed from his colleage for effective use as a super big and well capitalized player. so it doesnt seems to be the case that it is in ttta or is a technqiue that is suitable to us retail.
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,268
  • Apr 23, 2015 10:01am Apr 23, 2015 10:01am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Wow I am not sure where this is going....... need to think about what you are saying. FTI also uses news etc etc ... it is a dangerous world out there unless we have tools to face it and win..... it is terrain we are in that helps guide us to possibilities (this means tech/fundamentals and feel and changing landscape). RoK is just an element..... maybe it is not much.... maybe it is a lot......nothing is set......let the story unfold..... do the best. I will think some more about what you are saying..... and I am going to read TTTA again......
hi alexandria,

i am not advocating trading the news, more of i am saying having no exposure to the news, but simply watch how the market reacts to the news, like say the news has a bullish number out, yet the market goes only 10pips or so up, or bullish numbers come out and the markets go down instead, essentially feel the markets as the news itself comes out. well think about it, with respect to the dance, if the market comes out with bullish news, but the price action only goes up 10pips and then moves back down into the trading range, what does that tell us? perhaps the market is still fundamentally weak, its these out of ordinary situations which tell us much much more about the markets. so in a sense, the news are helping us probe the market's for its true technical/fundamental strength or weakness to tell us if the market is bullish or bearish or rangy.
after all, if the markets are bullish, when the news comes out, price action should shoot up alot and support well above the break of the trading range right? if its not, perhaps it tells us more that there is more than meets the eye? and perhaps there is something else fundamentally at work?

so news trading is not fundamental trading, fundamental trading is much different from news trading, though it has an element to see what news comes out and how the markets react to these news which show us how the fundamental traders are understanding and reacting to the news which tells us the sentiment of the markets.
  • #52,269
  • Apr 23, 2015 10:28am Apr 23, 2015 10:28am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} hi cookie, yes i am nice seeing you and your conclusion on ttta. pages 195++ was the clearest to me in terms of his trading technique. the rest of the books were fuzzy stuff. i never saw the diamonds or whatever secret that was hidden in "plane sight" as fti put it or whatever that were in the planes mentioned in the later part of the book. instead i only saw whatever that was in plain sight i.e. pages195++ and this was the easiest. when you search high and low only to have it right in front of you all this time. and about the diamonds,...
hi jacque,

well "plane sight" i would guess is "plane"? what i got from it was that, fundamentals, primarily because, during the timeline of ttta, it was a warring period, and gann wanted to build the planes which would then help the US win wars, and that itself meant technological advances, primarily notice that back then, the backdrop of their economy was this, rail road was the backbone of their transport system, it literally runs their economy. if technology advanced, and planes were built, what would happen to rail roads? the demand for it would drop right? and plane technology would be the new sector in town and most investors will see that rail would be declining because of general conditions favouring plane technology, and because of that, investors would take money from their rail investments perhaps some of it and put it into plane stocks. and hence, the fundamentals would be that the rise of the plane technology would cause the wane of the rail technology and its services. hence, we could see the drop in rail and rise plane stock prices. its really just economics or fundamental analysis. though perhaps a reason for people not picking it out was because they can't imagine what it was like to live in the timeline when gann wrote ttta, i sort of imagine myself living in that age, and figured it was the waning of the rail technology and the rise of the plane technology which was what gann was alluding to.

ah but if u read the the description of the blitzkrieg fti wrote, it factor's in the fundamental aspects incorporated with the dance, in order to perform market making. so perhaps the main difference is the mo and rescue which is not in the ttta. well if u ask me, what does a big and well capitalized player has? i would say holding power. one way to overcome this is after all, to use options right? suppose u believe the market will rise because the eur is recovering, u want to long the eurusd, a good way is to buy puts or establish long straddles and bid the way down right? and when the markets swing in ur favour temporarily, you conduct the blitzkrieg and turn on the attack instead hit the markets hard right? and when on the higher timeframes the market begin to consolidate and accumulate, you would slowly make markets and conduct small attacks till the higher timeframes begin to mark up and attack into the markets while taking profits on ur puts. what this afford us is really holding power by having covered positions. in very noisy and 2 directional markets, essentially the assassin formation which kills both bulls and bears, having a long straddle and adopting a market making approach while having a fundamental view that nothing is going on therefore the assassin formation, helps u hold and when something fundamental kicks in unexpectedly u are protected. however, the premium paid for this strategy is the cost of the long straddle or puts, so it really depends on how well u dance the markets, but i would say, the blitzkrieg would definitely be achievable even for retail traders, except that it needs modifications.

i have a skew for it, which is 1 1 2 = 4 for the initial scout size fading the hourly swings, that is if the market swing hrly is up, i wait for it to hit a stop hunt area, and start selling into it, 1 1 2, with a long straddle of 4x, and when the market swings back down, i attack with 4 8 16 if it was trending quite strongly or i use a more conservative one which is 4 6 8. but if after i am done with my scout of 4x units, i find that i am against a trend too strong, i can spread into a butterfly or box to make my losses much smaller and very very easy to recover.
  • #52,270
  • Edited 9:48am Apr 25, 2015 7:09am | Edited 9:48am
mary had a little land.
and its flees bit my nose.....lalalalala toink toink toink

rock on baby ...... grovyyyyy spidergirl thin..kermerjik....roll over stevie....rock and roll.....yeeeeha.

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geranimo, yeeeeeeeeha, way out , super way out.
what you smoking gal, may i have some prist?
oooooi stevie, stevie , wakey wake and have some.

regards
  • #52,271
  • Apr 25, 2015 10:15am Apr 25, 2015 10:15am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi jacque, well "plane sight" i would guess is "plane"? what i got from it was that, fundamentals, primarily because, during the timeline of ttta, it was a warring period, and gann wanted to build the planes which would then help the US win wars, and that itself meant technological advances, primarily notice that back then, the backdrop of their economy was this, rail road was the backbone of their transport system, it literally runs their economy. if technology advanced, and planes were built, what would happen to rail roads? the demand...
i not have deep understanding of options strategies yet... and so i hope you find the deep end and all is good

god bless us tunnel thru the air

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rip ww2
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,272
  • Apr 26, 2015 11:28am Apr 26, 2015 11:28am
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} hi alexandria, i am not advocating trading the news, more of i am saying having no exposure to the news, but simply watch how the market reacts to the news, like say the news has a bullish number out, yet the market goes only 10pips or so up, or bullish numbers come out and the markets go down instead, essentially feel the markets as the news itself comes out. well think about it, with respect to the dance, if the market comes out with bullish news, but the price action only goes up 10pips and then moves back down into the trading range,...
Thanks.... but I understood it as you describe and not as trade the news. I understood news issues as FTI explains in this thread.


Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #52,273
  • Apr 27, 2015 3:11am Apr 27, 2015 3:11am
hihi frens, anyone trading today?
THE ALL is MIND; The Universe is Mental
  • #52,274
  • Apr 27, 2015 10:06am Apr 27, 2015 10:06am
Quoting Jacque
hihi frens, anyone trading today?
Hi Jacque

not trading myself ATM, took a few weeks off, i will back trading again next week.

hope you are doing well my friend .

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #52,275
  • Apr 27, 2015 1:09pm Apr 27, 2015 1:09pm
Sometimes technical analysis works sometimes it does not, the smart money is often used it as a trap for the crowd.

You have all the time to connect additional extra sources to analyze your technical analysis. Naked technical analysis does not turn to trade profitably, you never know whether the figure will work or it was just a trap for the crowd.

Ps: Be smart and watch the market.
  • #52,276
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:12am Apr 28, 2015 7:12am
Quoting Jacque
{quote} i not have deep understanding of options strategies yet... and so i hope you find the deep end and all is good god bless us tunnel thru the air https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAP9AF6DCu4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aYHgCPmGnAg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFhY6IaUJ40 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwkyPvlWPM0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bw3tYiAFVfg rip ww2
Hi, well alls been great.

in reminiscence of the stock operator of jesse livermore, the last chapters talked about making markets into a bull trend, which jesse livermore asked for calls, in order to make markets to the short side, and kept fading rallies and covering on reactions, that was how i arrived at the conclusion that maybe options can be used in conjunction with the blitzkrieg for retail traders, except the of the holding period needs to be considered if carrying out this strategy, say if the market's atr for a month is maybe 1000 pips, while buying 1x puts and 1 x call is 240pips, it maybe a good trade, so more details need to be adjusted i guess, still working on it though, so far i see the hourly is fractal enough for nice opportunities this way, and with this rate, it could be re-used and possibly parlayed
  • #52,277
  • Apr 28, 2015 7:13am Apr 28, 2015 7:13am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Thanks.... but I understood it as you describe and not as trade the news. I understood news issues as FTI explains in this thread. Regards
well, its just for the record, so, great, so that im not accidentally giving the impression that i advocate trading the news.
  • #52,278
  • Edited 2:01pm Apr 28, 2015 1:31pm | Edited 2:01pm
humbling day,

lost 8% of the book. All foreign cap is gone. Reason couldn't flip. even after 7 years something i just cant do.

V
  • #52,279
  • Edited 4:36am Apr 29, 2015 3:45am | Edited 4:36am
Quoting indianguyinny24
humbling day, lost 8% of the book. All foreign cap is gone. Reason couldn't flip. even after 7 years something i just cant do. V
Nevermind, vickytor
it happens to the best of us. sometimes we careless sometimes we carry too much balls in our throats and mke bubu.
let water flow under the bridge. Watch the testerones . Have you exercised frequently?
Important thing is to survive inspike of. So the mindset must revert find peace.
When wrong man uses the right tools, the tools works in wrong way.
So need mediatate find the right man again from inside. reboot.

I think maybe you fell in love got married.like me. Is not clever always to fall. I fell, now moneys still in jail.

Anyway i found great resources that may be able help.
Mine of diamonds.
Although dad was great way resource the training.
Now have scholars who can help. No need be lead by the blind or the departed anymore.
Is just door. Lets see where the rabbit hole leads.

http://www.chinaknowledge.de/Literat...nzibingfa.html

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anyway we need better treasury managers, these days too many book peeps running the show.
No action , all talk.


regards
  • #52,280
  • Apr 29, 2015 4:22am Apr 29, 2015 4:22am
Quoting indianguyinny24
humbling day, lost 8% of the book. All foreign cap is gone. Reason couldn't flip. even after 7 years something i just cant do. V
Hi sometimes we all need a hug......I do not know if this helps or not and hope I am correct here.... maybe you need to encourage a different mindset... do not worry about flip or not flip...think rescues with trend impulse ... use HTF (m15/h1 as required) to check trend/impulse... think only about rescues

....... if we are with impulse then we are happy with rescues at better price (eg with abc PB then get in at C/D) (if impulse is very deep we can close last attack ) and when impulse resumes send in bigger nos later at better price

......if we find we are against impulse/trend think of it as rescue back with trend (not flip do not worry about flip as it is a flipping nuisance in your head).... so wait til bleeding stops and rescue with stronger nos as we go back with impulse

I think of rescue as always with trend...... although I have rescued in a PB in an obvious place with reaction against trend but it is scary and messes my head.

Maybe some others can tell me if my thinking is correct.


Regards
check out the terrain - follow never lead
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