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vsa with Malcolm

  • #26,661
  • Apr 27, 2015 11:26am Apr 27, 2015 11:26am
NY Session took up EURUSD and GBPUSD both off Friday volume zones. GBP from the low, EUR from the mid. Both hourly charts gave lovely NS (or test) / hidden test 2 bar reversals (2BR's are one of my favorite entries) off volume support levels. Lower TF's offered entries off the different levels on the way up.

Not always this clean but the zones always light the way for the VSA entries.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,662
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:18pm Apr 27, 2015 12:18pm
Quoting pres78
NY Session took up EURUSD and GBPUSD both off Friday volume zones. GBP from the low, EUR from the mid. Both hourly charts gave lovely NS (or test) / hidden test 2 bar reversals (2BR's are one of my favorite entries) off volume support levels. Lower TF's offered entries off the different levels on the way up. Not always this clean but the zones always light the way for the VSA entries. {image} {image}
I got caught shorting today and your charts got me thinking a little further about my entries. Both of your charts are similar but I'll talk about the EU chart. The 1HR zone you've marked is a down bar. The next bar is up. Question 1 - Are you taking this as strength from this point onwards or purely watching price around these zones?

In an effort to get more accurate entries I've been looking at the zones as follows. 50% - 100% as the "buy area" and 50% - 0% as the "sell area" of the zones. Question 2. Have you looked at zones like this or do you consider a whole zone as buy or sell based on this initial creation of the zone and the bars that followed?

You may have answered such questions before but I can't remember if you have.

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Here's my two entries. The first one was a sell below the 50% of this mornings high volume zone and the 50% of Friday's. This barely missed my target then closed for BE as the next column pushed straight back up and took me out.

Second entry was similar but below the low of this morning's zone and idled along for a while before stopping me out. The reversal column at the low perhaps should've been a sign but I didn't really see a whole load of strength here. Both were with the trend and MA but didn't happen for me.
  • #26,663
  • Apr 27, 2015 12:56pm Apr 27, 2015 12:56pm
Quoting KinsaleForex
{quote} I got caught shorting today and your charts got me thinking a little further about my entries. Both of your charts are similar but I'll talk about the EU chart. The 1HR zone you've marked is a down bar. The next bar is up. Question 1 - Are you taking this as strength from this point onwards or purely watching price around these zones? In an effort to get more accurate entries I've been looking at the zones as follows. 50% - 100% as the "buy area" and 50% - 0% as the "sell area" of the zones. Question 2. Have you looked at zones like this...
Liam,

Firstly no I do not assign buys only to the top half and sellers only to the bottom half. I use PA reading as we are moving down towards and if applicable into the zone. Now could I short between the levels of those zones as the higher TF longs were playing out? Sure drop down to a 1 min or 5 min chart and play the levels. That said my bias starting the day for both zones was longs ultimately because at the time on Friday after printing the lows of both zones were tested and held and the highs gave way. Then today PA confirmed this with that drawn out low volume move back down to support showing lack of sellers participation.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,664
  • Apr 27, 2015 3:54pm Apr 27, 2015 3:54pm
Quoting pres78
{quote} Liam, Firstly no I do not assign buys only to the top half and sellers only to the bottom half. I use PA reading as we are moving down towards and if applicable into the zone. Now could I short between the levels of those zones as the higher TF longs were playing out? Sure drop down to a 1 min or 5 min chart and play the levels. That said my bias starting the day for both zones was longs ultimately because at the time on Friday after printing the lows of both zones were tested and held and the highs gave way. Then today PA confirmed this...
Point of clarification. Does that mean you see your zones as "Entry Signal Zones"? Where you would look to take an unbiased set-up either long or short. Personally, I like to take long trades in areas where the buyers were previously showed conviction, and short trades in areas where the sellers previously showed conviction.

While volume figures differ from broker to broker, I notice that the zone you have marked is not even the highest volume that can be seen. The highest volume on my chart (and yours) is a zone for me. Was it a zone for you? If so, why is it no longer a zone? What makes that a high volume zone and not the other? Basically, what are your rules for zones?

An example rule for me would be the wide spread up bar 3 intervals after the 24th can not be a zone because it shares at least on tick with the already established zone. This prevents zones from overlapping or being inside one another.

Nice trade btw.

As always, I look forward to your reply.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,665
  • Edited 7:48pm Apr 27, 2015 5:31pm | Edited 7:48pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Point of clarification. Does that mean you see your zones as "Entry Signal Zones"? Where you would look to take an unbiased set-up either long or short. Personally, I like to take long trades in areas where the buyers were previously showed conviction, and short trades in areas where the sellers previously showed conviction. While volume figures differ from broker to broker, I notice that the zone you have marked is not even the highest volume that can be seen. The highest volume on my chart (and yours) is a zone for me. Was it a zone for...
HG,

No I do not see the zones as entry signals. I see them as the highest probability locations for low risk, high reward entry points. That said and as mentioned in my reply to Liam I do develop a zone bias meaning that I have expectations for what type of set up I think will most likely occur from that zone. This is based on several factors one of which is simple PA reading after the zone forms which is based on my tens of thousands of hours worth of screen time (both forward right edge trading as well as historical chart reviews). I have other zones on my chart which are higher volume but were hidden for this post to show the simplicity of even just following the most current volume. Take the highest volume 1 hr bar from say a Thursday throw on a fib and there's a darn good chance it will play some sort of role on Friday. That's not a 100% set in stone rule as there are none of those in trading but for me just a well tested theory I developed through my studies.

I have shown time and time again how volume prints at volume (as traders who understand order flow and S&D would expect) and we see zones that share levels with each other. In fact I have shown both here and over at the other VSA forum started by Steve Gill how this sharing of levels actually adds power to a level. In fact a wide range up-bar for example could on the power of news blow right up through what we expected to be a sellers zone (the reason I don't set pending based on bias) and will itself be on UHV making a new zone. You would be amazed however at how many times this happens and almost to the pip the 50% or low of the new up-bar is bang on the high of or mid of that old sellers zone (again I have shown many examples of this).

Our zones are a bit different in the making as your are based around WRB analysis where mine are simply based on volume. There is no opening or closing of zones for me they are relevant until they are replaced by something more relevant. I can trade big picture zones or zoom in to scalp some pips when I have the time.

It would take me far more than a post and a few charts to share all of how I identify, manage and trade these zones but I hope that what I have shared here over the years has helped a few people see the simpleness of just following the volume rather than picking random entry points. Focusing on the high volume zones gives us a great starting point each and everyday. It gives us the where.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #26,666
  • Apr 27, 2015 5:32pm Apr 27, 2015 5:32pm
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"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,667
  • Apr 27, 2015 8:06pm Apr 27, 2015 8:06pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Point of clarification. Does that mean you see your zones as "Entry Signal Zones"? Where you would look to take an unbiased set-up either long or short. Personally, I like to take long trades in areas where the buyers were previously showed conviction, and short trades in areas where the sellers previously showed conviction. While volume figures differ from broker to broker, I notice that the zone you have marked is not even the highest volume that can be seen. The highest volume on my chart (and yours) is a zone for me. Was it a zone for...
Your charts are so beautiful.....In all seriousness. There is always some very good discussion here!!!
  • #26,668
  • Apr 28, 2015 1:54am Apr 28, 2015 1:54am
Hello

Can someone tell me if this is correct ?
from left to right:

No Demand
Effort to rise
Hidden potential selling
Up thrust

Background = weak

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Where I sold:

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Many thanks
  • #26,669
  • Apr 28, 2015 2:41am Apr 28, 2015 2:41am
Open of Bar highlighted with red arrow on last chart was my entry.
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #26,670
  • Apr 28, 2015 4:23am Apr 28, 2015 4:23am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} Yes, I was going to point this out. But let's pretend it was a No Demand. The most often used method to enter would be to place a limit order just below the low of the No Demand. This where some get confused. Technically, the No Demand needs to be confirmed by the next inteval closing lower. However, you are placing your order prior to confirmation.

Is this also true of tests? needs to be confirmed 1st (next bar closing higher as next bar up is not enough I think).

I also feel a no-supply is a far more reliable entry than a test.

see the aftermath of that test (purple) the next bar was up but didn't close above it & price went down.

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the post is on page no. 1128 of this thread.
The loss was not bad luck. It was bad Analysis - D.Einhorn
  • #26,671
  • Apr 28, 2015 5:40am Apr 28, 2015 5:40am
EU long after reversal bar.
Edit: closed completed.
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #26,672
  • Apr 28, 2015 6:02am Apr 28, 2015 6:02am
On GU was on sidelines.
Purple Line is High of March 18.
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Think Twice Low Volume is Key to Success
  • #26,673
  • Apr 28, 2015 8:13am Apr 28, 2015 8:13am
Quoting wwisc1
Hi one and all I love this thread, I am seeking some help. I had a terrific week trading. I made a lot of pips but very little money. The reason was the pip value of my losers were more then the pip value of my winners. I use 3 percent for every trade. Does anyone know if there is a calculator that can make all my trades the same amount per pip? Maybe it could tie all trade value to 3 percent of EUR-USD. {image}
I posted this last week - does anyone know of a pip value calculator

thanks
  • #26,674
  • Apr 28, 2015 9:21am Apr 28, 2015 9:21am
nice

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  • #26,675
  • Apr 28, 2015 11:07am Apr 28, 2015 11:07am
Quoting Mingary
Hello Can someone tell me if this is correct ? from left to right: No Demand Effort to rise Hidden potential selling Up thrust Background = weak.....
This is a pretty tough one. If I can read the second chart correctly, it looks like you took a short that worked out. Nice job. If it did not work, that's trading. And while we can NEVER eliminate losses, we can try to mitigate them. Both in terms of amount and frequency.

Dot 1: This is a narrow range UP interval on increasing volume. It is a squat. A squat is not technically a VSA term. I do not know if there is a true VSA term for that interval. Nevertheless, it is a clear sign of weakness in VSA. The question is, "why is the range decreasing as the volume increases"? The range is being compressed by the fact that every buy order is being immediately matched with sale order from the Smart Money. The concept is laid out in Master The Markets. The page escapes me at the moment.

Dot 2: For some, the volume might be a little low to call this an effort to rise. For me , that is exactly what this is. Even though the next candle closes down, this is a healthy UP candle. Whilst markets do not like wide spread UP bars on high or ultra high volume, wide spread up bars on increasing volume that is not excessive are essential to UP trends. Note that this interval comes after an interval that is closing DOWN on volume less than the previous two. A No Supply. This is further evidence of the strength of this bar.

The fact that the bar after this closes down, however, does hint that there must have been some selling as well.

Dot 3: This is Supply Coming In.

Dot 4: Up Thrust.

This is how I see it, and not the only way it can be seen. I hope that others will chime in so we can all benefit from a multiple perspectives.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,676
  • Apr 28, 2015 11:07am Apr 28, 2015 11:07am
Anyone know where I can get a demo account for Forex Futures on MT4?
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
  • #26,677
  • Apr 28, 2015 11:32am Apr 28, 2015 11:32am
Quoting Vcv13
{quote} Is this also true of tests? needs to be confirmed 1st (next bar closing higher as next bar up is not enough I think)....
Ultimately, everything in VSA needs to be confirmed.

It gets a bit tricky when you speak about entries. Technically, VSA would have us entering longs on UP bars and shorts on DOWN bars. Think about that for a second. An ideal No Demand would be a narrow range UP bar with volume less than the previous two intervals. And of course, there would be weakness in the background. For this No Demand to confirm, we would have to wait for the next interval. But if we wait for the next interval and it does confirm, then we would be entering after a DOWN bar. Yet, we have already established that VSA wants us to enter shorts on/after UP bars. Thus what needs to be done is to place a limit order a tick or two below the low of the No Demand interval. The next interval may bring you into a short trade if it trades lower than the low of the No Demand. But you would most likely be brought into the market before the bar closes. Thus you would be in before you know if this interval confirms the No Demand by closing lower.

Everything is reversed for an ideal test.

Lately Gavin has been stressing the idea of confirmation. He may now be entering trades later than before, but I am not sure. If he is waiting for confirmation before entering, he is now entering shorts after DOWN bars and longs after UP bars. This would make the fact that he calls himself a contrarian even more ironic. He's an admitted trend trader and by definition there's nothing contrarian about that. But I digress.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,678
  • Apr 28, 2015 11:39am Apr 28, 2015 11:39am
Quoting ZeeDeveel
Anyone know where I can get a demo account for Forex Futures on MT4?
If you want to trade currency futures, there are so many better options than MT4.

Check out Infinity. You can get Sierra Chart for $20.00 a month. Free if you make like 10 round turns a month. AMP Futures offers more than 60 platforms.
But if you want MT4, try MB Trading.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #26,679
  • Apr 28, 2015 11:52am Apr 28, 2015 11:52am
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} I hope that others will chime in so we can all benefit from a multiple perspectives.
I am sure Gavin would ask: Why would you sell in uptrend?
Anyways, it worked as it was retracement.
  • #26,680
  • Apr 28, 2015 1:07pm Apr 28, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting HiddenGap
{quote} If you want to trade currency futures, there are so many better options than MT4. Check out Infinity. You can get Sierra Chart for $20.00 a month. Free if you make like 10 round turns a month. AMP Futures offers more than 60 platforms. But if you want MT4, try MB Trading.
Cheers HG, not interested in trading futures just yet, just want to compare volumes with spot FX and see if I can incorporate that into my trading. I will check out MB!
"Never Take a Trade You Don't Understand!" - Pres78
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