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  • #8,381
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:24am Apr 24, 2015 10:24am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} could be a late show, once first 30 min candle high or low is taken out
on the dow
  • #8,382
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:37am Apr 24, 2015 10:37am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} yes looking to do a call scalp on DIA or SPY, waiting for price to break the first 30 minute high. May take a while but will make the closest strike cheap as so little time left, if it does nothing then just sit tight
almost ready to take 181 call in the DIA for 7c or under, DIA 180.46 now

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
-NYSEArca
180.46 https://s.yimg.com/lq/i/us/fi/03rd/up_g.gif 0.09(0.05%) 11:36AM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price

IN
  • #8,383
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:40am Apr 24, 2015 10:40am
Seems like UP, for now... watching SPX, Nas100 and DAX... all going higher now... still just choppiness, IF this is a real breakout, then I will look for long DAX opps in the first place, since it did have a 5% or so correction...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,384
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:43am Apr 24, 2015 10:43am
Quoting StrayDog
Seems like UP, for now... watching SPX, Nas100 and DAX... all going higher now... still just choppiness, IF this is a real breakout, then I will look for long DAX opps in the first place, since it did have a 5% or so correction...
don't go in heavy this the last Friday of April
  • #8,385
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:07am Apr 24, 2015 11:07am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} don't go in heavy this the last Friday of April
Yeah, I have a strict money management for scalping... I will probably just watch all this, and if it holds, turn to BTFD on DAX (from Monday) on the first place.
These Greek soap opera affect it the most, and yes -> there was a bunch of bad European PPI's but still, the mofo is uber strong. Just look what it did YTD.
And it droped like 700+ points, so... This time in day it already lost momentum, since their market is closed and it just follows SnP...

All this US markets PA doesn't look very convincing for now, especially the low volume on SnP... Talking generally, since the last push UP on DAX was also on low volume, so this quick drop was no surprise.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,386
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:19am Apr 24, 2015 11:19am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah, I have a strict money management for scalping... I will probably just watch all this, and if it holds, turn to BTFD on DAX (from Monday) on the first place. These Greek soap opera affect it the most, and yes -> there was a bunch of bad European PPI's but still, the mofo is uber strong. Just look what it did YTD. And it droped like 700+ points, so... This time in day it already lost momentum, since their market is closed and it just follows SnP... All this US markets PA doesn't look very convincing for now, especially the low volume...
If DOW can take out 18091 then we may see some momentum
  • #8,387
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:22am Apr 24, 2015 11:22am
if you want to make money all you have to do is take the other side of every trade I do
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,388
  • Apr 24, 2015 11:51am Apr 24, 2015 11:51am
Quoting The Fool
if you want to make money all you have to do is take the other side of every trade I do
So you are a contrarian indicator of some sort?
Win some lose some... What about my SPY 208.50/208 put spreads I entered on Monday? Expiring worthless today. Small entry, but it adds up over time when you are wrong. I have just a few positions... what about your Oil bullish positions, I bet they are doing just fine. We share only that USO May/May4 20 call calendar... but you have a variety of other bullish trades.

What to do, oh what to do with our SPY May bear call spreads... Will leave them for now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,389
  • Apr 24, 2015 12:03pm Apr 24, 2015 12:03pm
Sure, I have some trades on that are looking good. I just have not been able to make a winning scalp trade of any kind. Which is why I am only making those now with just a few contracts at a time. When you make too many losing trades, it has a corrosive effect on your self confidence. For me personally, I lose interest in trading when I am consistently losing. Which just feeds the negative loop - if you lose interest & are not paying attention, you are likely to lose even more.

So, I should just give up on scalping and concentrate on doing longer term trades that I tend to do better on. Re: SPY $212 short call spread, I am in big loss there but committed at least to hang in til next week. I have played SPY up against this level multiple times now....we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,390
  • Apr 24, 2015 12:16pm Apr 24, 2015 12:16pm
Quoting The Fool
... Which just feeds the negative loop - if you lose interest & are not paying attention, you are likely to lose even more. ...
Yes, well said. If persistent enough, one finally finds the trades that he is most comfortably to do... bread & butter trades.
You trade this longer than me, but we both still experimenting with various stuff, building experience with equity options... I am just scratching the surface of the futures options world. So many things to be learned, lot of it one must learn from own experience...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jedi.jpg Size: 67 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,391
  • Apr 24, 2015 12:36pm Apr 24, 2015 12:36pm
taking a short on the GDP/USD from here 1.5171 with s/l at 1.5185, on for I'm hoping about 30 pips
  • #8,392
  • Apr 24, 2015 12:44pm Apr 24, 2015 12:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
taking a short on the GDP/USD from here 1.5171 with s/l at 1.5185, on for I'm hoping about 30 pips
closed it early, lost 7 pips
  • #8,393
  • Apr 24, 2015 2:10pm Apr 24, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} filled at $0.09. maybe a chance for some Friday profit-taking and a dip below $211...?
re: SPY vert puts, not a bad idea, but the entry was at $211.97, not at $211.5x, where I got in. I shoulda known better anyway than to spit into the heavy wind blowing behind the Naz, and that was apparent, so - an impatient trade. With just a little luck going down to the close I might get out for small loss....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,394
  • Apr 24, 2015 2:29pm Apr 24, 2015 2:29pm
UVXY sub $10
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,395
  • Apr 24, 2015 2:41pm Apr 24, 2015 2:41pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} almost ready to take 181 call in the DIA for 7c or under, DIA 180.46 now SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) -NYSEArca 180.46 {image} 0.09(0.05%) 11:36AM GMT+01:00 - Nasdaq Real Time Price IN
will end up a loser the above trade
  • #8,396
  • Apr 24, 2015 2:54pm Apr 24, 2015 2:54pm
Market keeps going up on a weak volume. Just 850k on /ES.

There is a growing disconnect in the stock market right now

Check the chart in the text.

Money is pulled out, and this is still going up... question is: is it sustainable?
I don't think so. In order to confirm breakout, you just gotta have heavy volume.
It doesn't have to be a recipe for correction, though, there is another scenario --> just sideways for months to come.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,397
  • Apr 24, 2015 9:41pm Apr 24, 2015 9:41pm
Quoting The Fool
UVXY sub $10
US index rallies this week look like breakout action, not sure what, if anything will stand in the way. I have to expect a rev-split for UVXY, any day now. It's too cheap for put trades now...if they would go 1:4 we could shoot at the puts from ~$40.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,398
  • Apr 24, 2015 9:58pm Apr 24, 2015 9:58pm
not sure if they would split SVXY at the same time - SVXY the short VIX sister, less liquid now but still tradeable, I guess...those big red candles are $20 weekly drops. The cheap vertical shown below is the kind of thing you find when the options are illiquid...usually impossible to fill, but ya never know...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-24_svxy.png Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-24_svxy2.png Size: 57 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-24_svxy3.png Size: 58 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,399
  • Apr 24, 2015 10:36pm Apr 24, 2015 10:36pm
Quoting The Fool
I have to expect a rev-split for UVXY, any day now......
previous UVXY rev-splits:

- 9/7/12 1:10 when the price got to @$4
- 6/10/13 1:10 when the price got to @$7
- 1/24/14 1:4 when the price got to @$15
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,400
  • Apr 26, 2015 12:42am Apr 26, 2015 12:42am
Quoting StrayDog
So you are a contrarian indicator of some sort? Win some lose some...
That's it: I should just do the opposite of what I have been doing. I should stop trying to get into low probability, low r:r trades for cheap, and instead, look to maximize my number of winning trades, even if it means I am settling for lower returns.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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