Elliottwave-Forecast.com - Official Thread w/ Analysis Blogs

FTSE Educational Elliott Wave Video

In this video we take a look at FTSE decline from the recent peak which visually looks to be a 5 wave move. We dissect the price action and show the viewers why we don’t see the decline as a 5 wave move and rather as a triple three (w)-(x)-(y)-(z) structure.

$DJUSRE Dow Jones Real Estate Index Elliott Wave Analysis

Today, we are going to present Elliott Wave Analysis of the Real Estate sector and see how it’s been performing in comparison with rest of the World Indices. We can hardly spot any differences as we think Real Estate sector is following the same cycles as Dow & SPX. There was a Real estate peak in 2007 that we have labelled as (w). It was the time when everyone was very enthusiastic about investing in the real estate market for the fear of getting left out of the move. However, no one paid attention to the fact that market was in a technical area from where a decent pull back could take place. It was the 123.6 – 161.8 ext of ((W))-((X)) starting from red x low (May 2004). Real Estate did turn lower as the Elliott Wave analysis would have suggested, it was a steep decline but once again buyers appeared where they should have appeared. Just around 123.6 ext of red w-x. Index then started a rally creating a Real Estate bottom in 2009 (to be confirmed on a break above 2007 peak).
There would be pull backs but best of reading of the Elliott Wave cycles suggest, there shouldn’t be a significant pull back happening until the real Estate Index has not hit 342.50 – 380.78 inflection area which is 100 – 123.6% extension of ((W))-((X)) up from 2009 low. We think this area would end the cycle from 2009 low or at least from 2011 low resulting in a larger 3 wave pull back in the Index which should find buyers again as the trend remains to the upside which is the trend for the human race as well (growing & getting better). It should be noted this is not an investment advice.



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CADJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – March 31, 2015

Today, we are going to take a look at shorter cycles in CADJPY pair. Pair today hit 100% extension (93.74) down from 3/5/2015 (96.81) peak & bounced. Preferred Elliott wave view suggests decline from here took the form of a double three structure when wave ((w)) ended at 94.51, wave ((x)) ended at 96.03 and wave ((y)) at 93.72 completing a higher degree wave W.

A bounce in wave “X’ is now expected to correct the decline from 96.81 peak before the decline resumes. 50 – 61.8 Fibonacci retracement zone lies between 95.26 – 95.62. We don’t like buying the pair in the proposed bounce. If pivot at 96.81 high gives up during the bounce, that would open another extension higher as a WXY structure from 1/30 low.



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CADJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis April 01, 2015

Today, we are going to revisit CADJPY pair. Yesterday, we saw the pair hitting 100% extension (93.74) down from 3/5/2015 (96.81) peak & bouncing. Preferred Elliott wave view suggests decline from 3/5/2015 peak is likely to become a triple three structure when wave ((w)) ended at 94.51, wave ((x)) ended at 96.01 and dip to 93.72 completed wave ((y)).

2nd wave ((x)) bounce is now in progress. We have already seen 3 swings in this 2nd wave ((x)) but another marginal high to 95.15 95.48 could still be seen before pair resumes the decline for new lows below 93.72. Only if pivot at 96.81 high gives up during the bounce, that would open another extension higher as a WXY structure from 1/30 low. Until then, sellers should stay in control.



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Nikkei NI225 Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis April 06, 2015

Preferred Elliott Wave view suggests rally to 19770 completed wave (W) and wave (X) pull back is also proposed to be over at 18980 with a test of equal legs (100% Fibonacci extension). Move up from here is taking the form of a double three or (w)-(x)-(y) structure when wave (w) ended at 19590, wave (x) ended at 19285 and wave (y) higher is in progress. We have seen a new high above 19590 which reinforces this view. 0.618 0.764 ext of (w)-(x) lies between 19655 19744 and is the typical area for wave w of (y) to finish.

This area is expected to produce a pull back in wave x which could retrace 50 61.8% of the move up from 19285. As the proposed x wave pull back holds above 19285 low, expect the Index to continue higher toward 19888 20032 area. As the pull back is represented with a dashed line accompanied by a green arrow, we dont like selling the Index and expect the Index to find buyers in the dip in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as prices holds above 19285 low and more importantly the pivot at 18980 low remains intact.



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The Elliott Wave Triangle Structure

Triangle is an Elliott wave pattern seen during sideways market consolidations, it is composed of 5 corrective sequences. Triangle presents a balance of forces between buyers and sellers, causing a sideways movement that is usually associated with decreasing volume and volatility. This pattern subdivide into 3-3-3-3-3 structures labeled as A, B, C, D, E.

Triangle is continuation pattern which breaks in direction of the preceding move. It could occur in wave 4 in an impulsive structure, wave B in a zig-zag and wave X connector in double and triple threes Elliott wave structures. It could also occur in wave Y of a WXY structure in which case it marks the end of correction.



Note: Triangle must be supported in RSI indicator as well and it never happens in wave 2 of impulsive structure.

Many wavers ignore the importance of decreasing momentum in a triangle formation. We at EWF use RSI to filter out other types of sideways consolidations. We like to see contracting formation in RSI as well when looking at a triangle formation.

The following chart shows how Elliott Wave Triangle looks like in real market.

$GOLD 2.6.2015 update: (X) connector has done as Triangle structure, which is composed of 5 waves A, B, C, D, E. All of them are corrective structures and each one is shorter than previous one. Target area for ending point of triangle is usually 61.8-76.4 Fibonacci retracement of wave C or 61.8-76.4 Fibonacci extension of C related to D.



After wave E retraced toward 61.8-76.4 fib zone, we got sharp decline in direction of previous trend. When the price broke below D low, we got confirmation that Triangle has ended at 1268.62.

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IBEX 35 (IBC-MAC) Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis April 09, 2015

Preferred view suggests wave ((w)) of Z completed at 11618. Pull back in wave ((x)) is favored complete @ 11290. Wave (w) ended at 11771, wave (x) also appears completed an 11616 with a perfect test of equal legs down from (w) high. Ideally price should now hold above this level for continuation higher toward 12055 12235 area to complete a cycle from 3/26 low. If 11616 low breaks, then 11586 11548 would be next area to complete wave (x) from where it should still resume the rally as far as pivot at 11290 (3/26) low remains intact. We dont like selling the Index in any of the proposed pull backs.



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IBEX 35 (IBC-MAC) Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis – April 13, 2015

Preferred Elliott wave view highlighted on April 9, 2015, suggested that wave ((w)) of Z completed at 11618 and wave ((x)) pull back at 11290. Wave (w) ended at 11771, wave (x) was considered completed at 1616 and rally was expected to resume for new highs above 11771. We have already seen a new high above 11771 which means we now have minimum number of swings in place to call the cycle completed from 10858 low. However, Index is still short of 100% ext of ((w)) – ((x)) at 12055 and starting from 11290 low, we can still count only 5 swings up so as far as pull backs hold above 11616 (x) low, expect another push higher toward 12055 – 12235 area to complete the current 1 hour cycle before we get a larger 3 wave pull back. Ideally price should now hold above this level for continuation higher toward 12055 – 12235 area to complete a cycle from 3/26 low. We don’t like selling the Index in any of the proposed pull backs and longs from (x) dip area should already be risk free.



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EURAUD Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis – April 14, 2015

Preferred Elliott wave view suggests EURAUD cycles remain bearish against 6th April high (1.4447). Decline from 1.4447 – 1.3753 was a double three Elliott wave structure i.e. (w)-(x)-(y) when wave (w) completed at 1.4118, wave (x) completed at 1.4221 and wave (y) completed at 1.3753 making a higher degree wave ((w)). Pair is currently in wave ((x)) bounce correcting the decline from 1.4447 peak. Wave ((x)) is also expected to unfold as a (w)-(x)-(y) structure when wave (w) completed at 1.3987, wave (x) completed at 1.3867 and wave (y) higher is now in progress and expected to reach 50 – 61.8 fib Fibonacci retracement zone of wave ((w)) between 1.4100 – 1.4182 before sellers appear and decline resumes. Red arrow indicates trend is down and move up is shown with a dashed line so we are not interested in buy the pair & expect the bounce to find sellers in 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 1.4447 high remains intact. Only a break of pivot at 1.4447 high would open another extension higher.



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AUDUSD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – April 16, 2015

Our preferred Elliott wave suggest AUDUSD downtrend is mature in the higher time frames but mid-term cycles still remain bearish against 3/24 (0.7937) high. Decline from 0.7937 – 0.7529 took the form of triple three structure and completed wave “W”. Wave “X” bounce is in progress and has already reached 1.236 ext of ((w))-((x)) at 0.7805. Another high toward 0.7828 – 0.7852 could still be seen to complete wave “X” before decline resumes. Ideally price should hold below 0.7886 but only a break of pivot at 0.7937 (3/24) high would negate this view and open another extension higher. We don’t like buying the pair and favour the short side as far 0.7886 and more importantly pivot at 0.7937 high remains intact.



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Video: Zig-Zag Elliott Wave Structure

In this educational video, we will talk about the Elliottwave zigzag structure. Zigzag is a corrective 3 wave move labelled as an ABC. Zigzag is a 5-3-5 Elliott wave structure but zigzag can also be the internal structure of a double three WXY or an internal structure of a triple three WXYZ. What are some of the characteristics of zigzag and the relationship between the swing? Watch the video to find out:



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SPX 500 Elliott Wave Analysis April 20, 2015

SPX500 dropped sharply on Friday in 5 waves. A 5 wave move doesnt always mean that trend has reversed as a 5 wave move could be part of an Elliott Wave FLAT correction as well which we think was the case here as our bullish pivot at 3/26 (2044.92) low never gave up. As this weekend updated charts shows, we were expecting the rally to resume to new highs as per the primary view.



As the updated chart below shows, we have seen a good reaction higher from the lows supporting the view that dip on Friday completed an Elliott wave FLAT correction. Preferred view now calls for a pull back in wave b to hold above 2072 low & continuation higher. We dont like selling the Index in proposed wave b pull back and as far as 2072 low remains in place, we would expect more upside toward 2121 -2138 area to complete wave W before another 3 wave pull back in wave X is seen.
Until 4/15 (2112) high doesnt break, another leg lower cant be completely ruled out but the best part is traders who bought the dip on Friday (after 5 waves down from 2112) high should now be in a risk free position. If it makes another low below 2072, then it would be a simple a-b-c down from 2112 high and should still turn higher as far as pivot at 2044.92 low remained intact in our system. Only a break of this pivot would open another extension lower.



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SPX 500 Elliott Wave Analysis – April 21, 2015

Preferred Elliott wave view suggests a cycle from (x) low has ended and a pull back in wave “b” is in progress. 2091 – 2086 is the ideal area to complete this pull back and then we expect the rally to resume. Green arrow indicates the trend is up and also the line going toward “b” low is a dashed line suggesting it’s a counter-trend move. So we like staying long from (x) dip area with risk free positions and expect wave “b” dip to find buyers in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 2072 low remains intact. Only a break of pivot at 2072 low would open another extension lower.



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GOLD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – April 22, 2015

Gold is proposed to be doing a ((w))-((x))-((y)) Elliott wave structure 1224 (4/6) high. Wave ((w)) ended at 1183.60, wave ((x)) completed at 1209.09 and wave ((y)) lower is proposed to be in progress. We need to see a break below 1183.60 (4/14) low to add more conviction to this view as that would make it 5 swings down from 1224 high and open an extension lower.

1184 – 1178 seems to be the ideal area to complete 5th swing i.e. wave (w) of ((y)) before we get a bounce in wave (x) and lower again toward 1168 – 1159 area to complete 7 swing Elliott wave cycle lower from 4/6 (1224) peak. If wave (w) ends at 1184, then 1197 – 1200 would be 50 – 61.8 fib area for completion of wave (x). We don’t like buying the metal in proposed (x) wave bounce. Worth mentioning that failure to break below 1183.60 may lead to further consolidation in the form of a triangle or even a double correction in wave ((x)).



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Video: Expanded / Irregular Flat

In this video, we will look at the Flat Elliottwave structure, and we will focus at one type of Flat called the Irregular / Expanded Flat. Flat is a corrective 3 wave structure labelled as ABC. Internally it is a 3-3-5 structure. Wave A is subdivided into 3 waves, wave B is subdivided into 3 waves, and wave C is subdivided into 5 waves. There are three different types of Flat: Regular, Irregular / Expanded, and Running Flat. What are the differences among them? And how do we spot such structure? Watch the video to learn:



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NZDUSD Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – April 28, 2015

Preferred Elliott Wave view suggests NZD/USD is doing a 7 swing (WXY) structure up from 4.1.2015 low. 3 waves up to 0.7740 completed wave “W” followed by a 3 wave pull back to 0.7534 which we think complete a FLAT in wave X. Afterwards, the pair continued the rally higher and completed wave ((w)) at 0.7740.

We are now expecting a pull back in wave ((x)) to correct the cycle from red X low (0.7534) in 3, 7 or 11 swings followed by another push higher toward 0.7860 – 0.7937 area before decline resumes. 50 – 61.8 fib area of wave ((w)) as of now lies between 0.7638 – 0.7613. Pivot at 0.7534 low should remain intact during proposed ((x)) wave pull back for us to see 1 more push higher as shown on the chart. Once we have seen the next leg higher toward 0.7860 – 0.7937, we expect to see sellers in that area for 3 waves lower at minimum.



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EURGBP Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – April 29, 2015

Preferred Elliott Wave view suggests $EUR/GBP is in wave (X) correction up from wave (W) low at 4.22.2015. Wave (X) correction takes the form of a FLAT (ABC) structure. Wave “A” ended in 3 waves at 0.7212, followed by 3 waves correction in wave “B” towards 0.713. Wave “C” of (X) rally from 0.713 unfolds in 5 swings with wave ((i)) at 0.717, wave ((ii)) at 0.7136, wave ((iii)) at 0.7225, and wave ((iv)) at 0.719. Pair is currently expected to complete wave ((v)) towards 0.7245 – 0.7282 area. The last swing higher in wave ((v)) would complete wave (X) FLAT and divergence should be intact in the next push higher.

As the trend is lower (as indicated by the red arrow), we don’t like buying the pair into the proposed wave ((v)) rally. We expect to see sellers from 0.7245 – 0.7282 area for 3 waves lower at minimum per Elliott wave hedging concept.



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NIKKEI Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 04, 2015

Short term Elliott Wave view suggests pullback to 19348 completed wave ((X)). From this level, rally in wave (a) is taking the form of a 5 waves diagonal when wave i ended at 19570, wave ii ended at 19405, wave iii ended at 19775, wave iv ended at 19620, and wave v of (a) is in progress towards 19851 – 19906 equal legs area.
After wave (a) is complete, index is expected to pullback in wave (b) and can test 50 – 61.8 fib retracement of wave (a) before the rally resumes. If wave (a) ends at 19851 equal leg, then wave (b) pullback can test 19541 – 19600 (50 – 61.8 fib retracement). We don’t like selling in the proposed wave (b) pullback and expect wave (b) dip to find buyers as far as pivot at the 19348 low remains intact.



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NIKKEI Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – May 07, 2015

Preferred Elliott Wave view suggests wave ((X)) pullback took the form of a double three (W)-(X)-(Y) structure. Wave (W) ended at 19665. Wave (X) took the form of a FLAT (3-3-5 structure) and completed at 19820. In our last Chart of the Day update, we said wave Y of ((X)) can still make one more low and test 18805 – 19045 before buyers appear and 3 waves reaction higher takes place per Elliott Wave hedging idea. Current update propose wave (Y) of ((X)) has completed at 19055, and the Index has bounced as anticipated. Index is expected to bounce at least 3 waves higher with an ideal target of 19675 – 19821 (50 – 61.8 back from wave ((Y)) high). Readers who took a long position should have a risk free trade already.



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4 types of Emotions every trader needs to overcome

The psychology behind trading is the force that makes the moves in the market. Besides a good Elliott Wave analysis and proper money management, trading psychology is crucial for being successful in this business.

There are four psychological kinds of emotions that drive most individual decision making in any market in the world: Greed, Fear, Hope and Regret.



1. Greed could be defined as a trader’s desire to trade in order to provide an unrealistic profit. Greedy traders focus only on how much money they could have made. This emotion frequently leads to ignoring proper money management and often prevents a trader from taking profits on a winning trade.

2. Fear is a survival response and probably the most powerful of all human emotions. When afraid, a trader will sell a position regardless of the price. Fear usually leads to panic, which again causes poor decision making.

3. Hope is what keeps a trader in a losing trade after it has hit the invalidation level. It may be the most dangerous of all human emotions when it comes to trading.

4. Regret is defined as a feeling of sadness or disappointment over something that has happened, especially when it involves a loss or a missed opportunity.

These 4 emotions affect trading very negatively and every trader should find the way to get rid of them, or at least to control them.

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