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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #41
  • Apr 15, 2015 5:47am Apr 15, 2015 5:47am
Some good news for USDCAD bears

Probabilities are stacked up for a nice drop before next Tuesday.
Personally I will be entering a short from today during the US session.

The aim is a new low below 1.2390.
However, I would advise taking profits before. Why? because the probability of 'just a drop' is much higher then the probability of a new low at the moment.
  • #42
  • Apr 15, 2015 6:38am Apr 15, 2015 6:38am
Quoting FX-Jay
Some good news for USDCAD bears Probabilities are stacked up for a nice drop before next Tuesday. Personally I will be entering a short from today during the US session. The aim is a new low below 1.2390. However, I would advise taking profits before. Why? because the probability of 'just a drop' is much higher then the probability of a new low at the moment.

What's about BOC statement and monetary policy report at 3 P.M. GMT and then 4:15 P.M. GMT BOC conference? It can move market more than 50 pips in seconds as usual, so how are you going to deal with it?
  • #43
  • Apr 15, 2015 6:40am Apr 15, 2015 6:40am
A boc rate hike will help on the "just a drop " . Watch it
trade safe
  • #44
  • Apr 15, 2015 9:01am Apr 15, 2015 9:01am
Quoting FX-Jay
Some good news for USDCAD bears Probabilities are stacked up for a nice drop before next Tuesday. Personally I will be entering a short from today during the US session. The aim is a new low below 1.2390. However, I would advise taking profits before. Why? because the probability of 'just a drop' is much higher then the probability of a new low at the moment.
Amazing analysis!
  • #45
  • Apr 15, 2015 10:02am Apr 15, 2015 10:02am
Quoting FX-Jay
Some good news for USDCAD bears Probabilities are stacked up for a nice drop before next Tuesday. Personally I will be entering a short from today during the US session. The aim is a new low below 1.2390. However, I would advise taking profits before. Why? because the probability of 'just a drop' is much higher then the probability of a new low at the moment.
great call.. unbelievable :-) already hit 2408
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #46
  • Apr 15, 2015 10:09am Apr 15, 2015 10:09am
Quoting FX-Jay
Some good news for USDCAD bears Probabilities are stacked up for a nice drop before next Tuesday. Personally I will be entering a short from today during the US session. The aim is a new low below 1.2390. However, I would advise taking profits before. Why? because the probability of 'just a drop' is much higher then the probability of a new low at the moment.
great call buddy. I also saw the rise in oil prices as a nice indication as well!

I thought i would pay a visit as i saw that we made a correlating suggestion on that pair. Good work, and keep it up. You're killing it as always
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.PNG Size: 36 KB
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #47
  • Apr 15, 2015 3:28pm Apr 15, 2015 3:28pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Some good news for USDCAD bears Probabilities are stacked up for a nice drop before next Tuesday. Personally I will be entering a short from today during the US session. The aim is a new low below 1.2390. However, I would advise taking profits before. Why? because the probability of 'just a drop' is much higher then the probability of a new low at the moment.
That was fast
Glad it gave me an opportunity to short at the US open before this whole drop.
I was hoping to be able to add more shorts, but it dropped way too fast

Now that target is reached, I'm neutral on USDCAD until a new high probability opportunity presents itself
  • #48
  • Apr 15, 2015 3:34pm Apr 15, 2015 3:34pm
Quoting FX-Jay
The high probability trade is AUDUSD short (sorry for the AU bulls out there) 1st short entry: Wednesday, US Opening (15/04) 2nd short entry: Monday, London Opening (20/04) Target: New low below 0.7533 Conditions: Not reaching target before the above specified times (i.e. if target is reached before the above entry times, then the whole setup becomes invalid)
1st short entry was initiated today

Let's see if the entry on Monday will be as good.
Just a reminder, if the target is hit before Monday London open, then there is no point to have a new position on Monday
  • #49
  • Apr 15, 2015 4:45pm Apr 15, 2015 4:45pm
Quoting FX-Jay
You may have realized that using the time factor has a very important role in my analysis I believe that in order to be successful you need to combine both the price & time into your decision. PA by itself isn't enough. I will take the time factor to the extreme & share a high probability trade that is purely based on time rather than price. I haven't seen anyone attempt this before... If you have, please do share the link. The high probability trade is AUDUSD short (sorry for the AU bulls out there) 1st short entry: Wednesday, US Opening (15/04)...
Still time to get into the aud/usd short
  • #50
  • Apr 15, 2015 10:54pm Apr 15, 2015 10:54pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} 1st short entry was initiated today Let's see if the entry on Monday will be as good. Just a reminder, if the target is hit before Monday London open, then there is no point to have a new position on Monday
Hello FX-Jay,

What level have you shorted at? According to my Broker the US opening price was around 0.7605. If that is incorrect could you kindly advise what was the level you entered at?

From what I see the trade is approximately 150 pips in loss at the moment? That is if the US opening was 0.7 or so

DD
  • #51
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:35am Apr 16, 2015 1:35am
Quoting Dildubai
{quote} Hello FX-Jay, What level have you shorted at? According to my Broker the US opening price was around 0.7605. If that is incorrect could you kindly advise what was the level you entered at? From what I see the trade is approximately 150 pips in loss at the moment? That is if the US opening was 0.7 or so DD
Hey Dildubai,

1st entry on AU was at 0.7624, so yes, that's more than 120 pips drawdown (reached 160 pips DD @ 1 point).
But still nothing to worry about, next entry is going to be Monday
I'll post a separate post as a follow up to the AU trade

The best part, is that while the AU was in negative territory, the EURAUD trade (post #30) went right into its target, covering all the AU DD and made some extra profits on top.
  • #52
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:40am Apr 16, 2015 1:40am
So fx-jay, you don't expect the aud/usd to hit its lows today or tomorrow? Rather, you expect it to go up assuming you're planning on entering at a higher trade on Monday? Just wanna see your thoughts
  • #53
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:48am Apr 16, 2015 1:48am
Quoting FX-Jay
I have an extremely high probability for EURAUD to make a new low below 1.3785 sometime during the coming 3 weeks.
Quoting FX-Jay
Concerning this setup, I would like to mention that during the last 7 years (from Jan 2008) there have been 59 similar setups to the one I currently have on EURAUD All of them were successful and reached target. Past performance doesn't guarantee the future, but it does at least allow you to open a position and be able to sleep comfortably
Done
Smashed right into target, booked a nice 180 pips on this one, and again it didn't take 3 weeks, a couple of days and we were done

EURAUD kept the record clean 60/60
  • #54
  • Apr 16, 2015 1:59am Apr 16, 2015 1:59am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Dildubai, 1st entry on AU was at 0.7624, so yes, that's more than 120 pips drawdown (reached 160 pips DD @ 1 point). But still nothing to worry about, next entry is going to be Monday I'll post a separate post as a follow up to the AU trade The best part, is that while the AU was in negative territory, the EURAUD trade (post #30) went right into its target, covering all the AU DD and made some extra profits on top.
Thank FX-Jay,

Now I understand What you mean.

Appreciate the response

DD
  • #55
  • Apr 17, 2015 6:33am Apr 17, 2015 6:33am
Follow-Up

Quoting FX-Jay
The high probability trade is AUDUSD short ​
Setup is still valid

Quoting FX-Jay
1st short entry: Wednesday, US Opening (15/04)
The entry wasn't good at all. I've went back to see what may have went wrong & I beleive I may have the answer. I'm doing the analysis of similar older setups & if what I have in mind is correct then that's actualy the perfect opportunity to optimize the probabilities further.

That's what I love about trading, there's always something new to learn, and room for continuous development

Quoting FX-Jay
2nd short entry: Monday, London Opening (20/04)
I've added a short here at 1.7820 with a tight SL right at today's 0.7842 high
and will be waiting for the above mentioned date to add some more

Quoting FX-Jay
Target: New low below 0.7533
Still valid on condition that we stay below 0.7940
  • #56
  • Apr 17, 2015 10:39am Apr 17, 2015 10:39am
Hi FX-Jay, according to the position indicator EU is still 'in progress'/black. Went through the posts and you mentioned that timing for EU is similar to GU, which made a new low while EU didn't. So I'd say this setup is no longer in progress or is it?

The AU short looks better now. It can go above 7940 in my book and still be good, but close above would hint of a failure.

And note to self..trust myself and my knowing regardless of who's oppinion I read/listen to.. Lesson learned.

Thanks for bringing up the timing concept.
Markets wispers, just tune in.
  • #57
  • Apr 20, 2015 6:46am Apr 20, 2015 6:46am
Quoting plukin
Hi FX-Jay, according to the position indicator EU is still 'in progress'/black. Went through the posts and you mentioned that timing for EU is similar to GU, which made a new low while EU didn't. So I'd say this setup is no longer in progress or is it? The AU short looks better now. It can go above 7940 in my book and still be good, but close above would hint of a failure. And note to self..trust myself and my knowing regardless of who's oppinion I read/listen to.. Lesson learned. Thanks for bringing up the timing concept.
Hey Plukin,

Concerning the EU, I wasn't sure if I should list it with the other positions or not, since unlike all the others, the EU trade doesn't have an exact timing factor or even an approximate SL, it's just that probabilities are more aligned for a drop rather than a move up.
The GU & EU trades are not directly elated, but since I had a complete setup on GU I was just wondering if it would take the EU with it.
So even though GU reached target, the EU probabilities were in no way affected

You should always trust yourself and only yourself, whatever information is available out there (including this thread) should be only used to counterweight your ideas/opinions about the market. I haven't missed a target yet, but that doesn't mean that I won't in the future. Never follow anyone blindly! Specialy people that have no liability towards you.

Best,
Jay
  • #58
  • Apr 20, 2015 6:58am Apr 20, 2015 6:58am
Quoting FX-Jay
2nd short entry: Monday, London Opening (20/04) Target: New low below 0.7533
Entry couldn't have been any better.
If you're in, congrats you should be around 50 pips in green so far, but I believe that's just the beginning, much more to come
A SL at BE isn't a bad idea now, but the major SL for the setups to be invalidated is 0.7940 (so mine is at 0.7940 for this trade)


Quoting FX-Jay
I've added a short here at 0.7820 with a tight SL right at today's 0.7842 high and will be waiting for the above mentioned date to add some more {quote} Still valid on condition that we stay below 0.7940
This entry looks pretty good too & survived its SL.
For this trade my SL now moved to BE (0.7820)
  • #59
  • Apr 20, 2015 10:25pm Apr 20, 2015 10:25pm
hi Fx Jay

I have also been trying to implement transient zones in my trading and just wanted to know if u use the daily or the 4 hour charts to locate ur trading zones. I know its not easy to find a way to trade but looking at ur live calls I would like to learn this method.


Regards

Dennis
  • #60
  • Apr 24, 2015 1:59am Apr 24, 2015 1:59am
Hi FX Jay

Just wondering what your view is for AU at the moment, are we still expecting it to fall?
Looking at the 4HR i thinking its going to test 7842 and possible go higher.
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