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Attachments: When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...
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When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...

  • #81
  • Apr 19, 2015 1:51am Apr 19, 2015 1:51am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} hello duderoo, how is the weather this morning in the southern tip in your part of our Africa ? i will answer u just now after i have addressed LearnAlways's concerns about my interpretation of the GBPCAD so stay tuned.
Glorious day today, but winter is on its way 😃

Currently in a long and a few pips down, thus my question.
  • #82
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:10am Apr 19, 2015 2:10am
Quoting sunshine
anyway, since i prepared the NZDCAD, here are the 4 different tf charts...pls see if my explanation is crystal clear {image}
I mean based on LINE CHART NZDCAD THE MOST CURRENT SLOPE of the LINE chart is MN=DOWN, W1=DOWN, D1=UP, H4=UP.
I understand what u mean by the LINE chart is above the most current swing High but the slope is currently still pointing down, shouldn't we at least wait until the slope of the most current LINE is pointing up to take positions???

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCAD-Monthly to H4 LINE.png Size: 93 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDCAD-Monthly to H4 CANDLESTICK.png Size: 93 KB
I only know I know nothing
  • #83
  • Apr 19, 2015 2:32am Apr 19, 2015 2:32am
Quoting LearnAlways
Hi sunshine, I am very puzzled as to why u said NZDCAD GBPCAD monthly Trend is Up, Weekly Trend is UP? From the LINE chart as what I perceived, NZDCAD GBPCAD, MN is DOWN, W1 is DOWN, D1 is UP, H4 is UP. Pls refer to attached pic. Edit: Sorry I should rename to GBPCAD {image} {image} Best Regards, LearnAlways
ok, i understand what u asking.

your Question:
"From the LINE chart as what I perceived, NZDCAD GBPCAD, MN is DOWN, W1 is DOWN, D1 is UP, H4 is UP."

Answer:

in this case,

  1. for trend to change we need to see price CLOSE below the Last Swing Low {LSL} in the Monthly, so Mthly is still Up simply because we haven't had a price close below the LSL...can u see this ?...pls look at the highlighted horizontal green line.
  2. Weekly is still down as u correctly observed,
  3. Dly is down, Why u may ask ? because price has not closed above the LSH. pls look at the highlighted horizontal bar that the arrows are pointing to. However, bcz the Mthly is still up it is ok for us to buy in the Dly and preferably trade intraday, i would not recommend a hold in Dly simply bcz the Dly didn't close above the LSH. pls make sure u understand this, if it's not clear i will try again.
  4. 4hr closed Up as u pointed out bcz it closed above it's own LSH

​Is my explanations clear or is it still too muddled ?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPCAD trend Clarification.png Size: 32 KB
  • #84
  • Apr 19, 2015 3:21am Apr 19, 2015 3:21am
Quoting LearnAlways
{quote} I mean based on LINE CHART NZDCAD THE MOST CURRENT SLOPE of the LINE chart is MN=DOWN, W1=DOWN, D1=UP, H4=UP. I understand what u mean by the LINE chart is above the most current swing High but the slope is currently still pointing down, shouldn't we at least wait until the slope of the most current LINE is pointing up to take positions??? {image} {image}
ok, i see what u mean, thank you. sorry for my misinterpretation of your question

as i mentioned before, when the Entry Signal arrives in the lower tf, it will be very hard to pull the trigger because the higher tf bars will be telling the opposite...it will show different colour bars as u would like to see, but from experience and as i illustrated to u in the Mthly-Dly short example, it is the best position to enter for the most pips and the least risk. The choice is yours, u can decide to stand aside until such time that u feel comfortable to enter.

i do not take into account the general slope of the most current entry chart...bcz if we wait until the slope is pointing up then a good chunk of intraday pips is already gone. a confirmed buy will be a price close above the Dly LSH which is 73 pips above where price closed on Friday...that is why i suggested intraday trades as prudent.

Lastly, i value the effort u put in to understand my entry strategies, therefore i would advice u to not try and understand my method as well as someone else' simultaneously before u have grasped the heart of my method and its entry strategies. Some of my strategies appear counter intuitive but it is only so until the "light bulb"... the "Ah haa" moment kicks in.
  • #85
  • Apr 19, 2015 4:16am Apr 19, 2015 4:16am
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Glorious day today, but winter is on its way 😃 Currently in a long and a few pips down, thus my question.
good to hear about your sunny day and the part about ...but winter is on its way...reminds of of that popular series...Game of Thrones..

anyway, back to your question...my reading of USDCAD. pls note my reading could be faulty so make your own assessments after u have read what i see on the charts.
i anticipate a price move up as far as the 50% mark of the weekly candle but it is all conjecture bcz i don't really know, that is why i suggest to trade intraday for now and bank frequently each and every day until trend is clear..
Also, the current month of April has not closed yet, there is still 9 trading days left, anything can happen...price can shoot back up to close above the LSL about 260 pips above or it can close the mth where it is now...who knows.

Check it out and let me know what u perceive, thank you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD analysis.png Size: 31 KB
  • #86
  • Edited 4:51am Apr 19, 2015 4:31am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} ok, i see what u mean, thank you. sorry for my misinterpretation of your question as i mentioned before, when the Entry Signal arrives in the lower tf, it will be very hard to pull the trigger because the higher tf bars will be telling the opposite...it will show different colour bars as u would like to see, but from experience and as i illustrated to u in the Mthly-Dly short example, it is the best position to enter for the most pips and the least risk. The choice is yours, u can decide to stand aside until such time that u feel comfortable...
Thanks sunshine for your explanation,

I asked because there are times in the monthly chart where there are no swings only slope line, so how should we trade, meaning the trend is very strong pls see attached pic. And I mean the risk is very high for a monthly chart because the slope might end up to be a straight slope down all the way without resulting in any swing on the line chart. Sorry if I mis-interpreted your methodology.
Edit: And the swings on a daily chart are many so to speak as u can see, I mean its not easy if using your methodology, pls enlighten me, thanks in advance.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1)NZDCAD-Monthly Arrows on MN LINE.png Size: 81 KB

The red arrows are drawn near the lowest point of the UPTREND whereas the blue arrows are drawn at the close of the candlestick which coincide with the LINE chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2)NZDCAD-Monthly Arrows on D1 LINE lowest point.png Size: 74 KB

The red arrows at the lowest point of the uptrend as shown on D1 charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3)NZDCAD-Monthly Arrows on D1 LINE close point.png Size: 74 KB

The blue arrows at the close price of the uptrend as shown on D1 charts
I only know I know nothing
  • #87
  • Apr 19, 2015 5:02am Apr 19, 2015 5:02am
Do I understand good this strategy?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp sell.png Size: 52 KB
  • #88
  • Edited Apr 20, 2015 1:11am Apr 19, 2015 6:50am | Edited Apr 20, 2015 1:11am
Quoting LearnAlways
{quote} Thanks sunshine for your explanation, I asked because there are times in the monthly chart where there are no swings only slope line, so how should we trade, meaning the trend is very strong pls see attached pic. And I mean the risk is very high for a monthly chart because the slope might end up to be a straight slope down all the way without resulting in any swing on the line chart. Sorry if I mis-interpreted your methodology. Edit: And the swings on a daily chart are many so to speak as u can see, I mean its not easy if using your methodology,...
...if the mthly trend is very strong then we are at our happiest because we enter on the Dly, but as u say ...there will be many dly signals...i am saying...if being stopped out numerous times for small losses or at be+some buffer pips than we catch the real runner, than only enter on confirmed DAILY buys for longs, i.e. when price closes above the last dly swing high...buy.

...2ndly if a mthly trend is very strong, it stands to reason so will be the Weekly, so reduce your risk even more and switch to weekly charts as the trend chart, now take confirmed buys only in the 4hr and exit for 3/4 or more of the average daily range over the last 3 mths., or close your trades at the formation of the 1st reversal bar in 4hrs, or bring SL to breakeven plus some buffer pips and let price play out as it like...in this case after a few up days u can look to exit when 4hrs close down below its own last Swing Low. Rinse & repeat.

...lastly, i found that being up overall on one's trading account makes taking and holding trades that much easier.
edit in black
  • #89
  • Apr 19, 2015 6:54am Apr 19, 2015 6:54am
Quoting Mariodrugs
Do I understand good this strategy? {image}
hi Mario and thank you for your question

Yes, your understanding is correct.
i do make use of Sell Stop & Buy Stop orders when i can't be present at the bar close and i anticipate price to return to trend.
  • #90
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:20am Apr 19, 2015 7:20am
Quoting Mariodrugs
Do I understand good this strategy? {image}
Can u see the power of this strategy ??? Weekly for Trend...enter on the 4hrs. i marked on the chart 2 areas where the 4hrs confirmed a sell...please pull up your own charts and check for yourselves. numerous profitable short entries and exit signals abound...stay true and success awaits.
even short entries on the 1st of the double top will yield gains.

i have marked the entry on the Weekly chart as well with the white dotted lines to visually illustrate where exactly on the weekly red bar this signals was given.

i used the Weekly+4hr charts of the EURGBP that u first posted to illustrate. the power of this concept.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP w+4hrs.png Size: 25 KB
  • #91
  • Apr 19, 2015 7:49am Apr 19, 2015 7:49am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} Can u see the power of this strategy ??? Weekly for Trend...enter on the 4hrs. i marked on the chart 2 areas where the 4hrs confirmed a sell...please pull up your own charts and check for yourselves. numerous profitable short entries and exit signals abound...stay true and success awaits. even short entries on the 1st of the double top will yield gains. i have marked the entry on the Weekly chart as well with the white dotted lines to visually illustrate where exactly on the weekly red bar this signals was given. i used the Weekly+4hr charts...
So why did you sell there? YOu saw double top?
I do not see there breakout..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Why sell.png Size: 34 KB
  • #92
  • Apr 19, 2015 8:06am Apr 19, 2015 8:06am
Dear sunshine! i am a newbie in forex trading and i have learned from forex trading till now that you should have a good balance in your account and you should go for long term trades with small lots, it is much safer than short trades...so i am trying to understand your method..so please keep it up.
Asifiqbal from Pakistan
  • #93
  • Apr 20, 2015 1:06am Apr 20, 2015 1:06am
Below is the NZDCAD 4hr charts highligting some doji's/red wide ranging bars at the top of price trend in 4hrs.

reason for this post ?

 

  1. i'm calling attention to their location,
  2. and the fact that they can be described as "indecision" bars,
  3. and the fact that they are red which together with the above would suggest a price reversal down, so should the opposite happen and price close up then according to my interpretation of price, i would buy...as it is currently i have a buy in based off some lower tf signals. but if it doesn't work work out then i'm prepared to close this trade for a loss.
  4. to grasped fully what is happening here, please read the preceding posts of yesterday where i have analysed 3 different fx pairs.
  5. if u don't want the risk of loosing trades then don't get out of bed.

​

Attached Image
  • #94
  • Apr 20, 2015 1:09am Apr 20, 2015 1:09am
Quoting asifiqbal
Dear sunshine! i am a newbie in forex trading and i have learned from forex trading till now that you should have a good balance in your account and you should go for long term trades with small lots, it is much safer than short trades...so i am trying to understand your method..so please keep it up.
welcome asif {my friend's son has the same beautiful name}, and u are right on the mark, together with that i would stress that once one's account has a lovely buffer in profit, it truly takes the heat off u.
  • #95
  • Apr 20, 2015 1:25am Apr 20, 2015 1:25am
Quoting LearnAlways
{quote} Thanks sunshine for your explanation, I asked because there are times in the monthly chart where there are no swings only slope line, so how should we trade, meaning the trend is very strong pls see attached pic. And I mean the risk is very high for a monthly chart because the slope might end up to be a straight slope down all the way without resulting in any swing on the line chart. Sorry if I mis-interpreted your methodology. Edit: And the swings on a daily chart are many so to speak as u can see, I mean its not easy if using your methodology,...
hi LearnAlways,

i can see where your confusion probably comes from

 

  1. when u draw your Swing High CLOSE lines in an uptrend, then only only draw it up to the point where the rising price line cuts the horizontal SH line,
  2. similarly for Swing Low horizontal lines, please draw the horizontal line up the declining price line coming from above.
  3. DO NOT LET any horizontal Swing Low line EXTEND OUT beyond the price intersect.
  4. now look at your previous posted charts and try and see this...now look at my horizontal lines ...can u see the difference ???

  • #96
  • Apr 20, 2015 1:34am Apr 20, 2015 1:34am
Quoting FunkThatPunk
I am following with interest! I like the thread and also your analysis and you are on the right approach! Will be following to see how you get on! Good luck!
Hello FunkThatPunk,

welcome and thank you and please accept my apologies for not responding sooner, i only saw your post now.
or it might be that it was your first post which was delayed due to ForexFactory's built-in safety features.
be that as it may, u most welcome here and likewise with your contributions.
  • #97
  • Apr 20, 2015 7:07am Apr 20, 2015 7:07am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} hi LearnAlways, i can see where your confusion probably comes from when u draw your Swing High CLOSE lines in an uptrend, then only only draw it up to the point where the rising price line cuts the horizontal SH line, similarly for Swing Low horizontal lines, please draw the horizontal line up the declining price line coming from above. DO NOT LET any horizontal Swing Low line EXTEND OUT beyond the price intersect. now look at your previous posted charts and try and see this...now look at my horizontal lines ...can u see the difference...
Hi sunshine,

Do u mind showing me plainly what is the difference between how u draw and how I draw a horizontal line. I can't fathom what's wrong with it and based on your writings, sorry I'm not a smart ass. haha. Wish I was though.

Best Regards,
LearnAlways
I only know I know nothing
  • #98
  • Edited 2:34pm Apr 20, 2015 1:18pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting Mariodrugs
{quote} So why did you sell there? YOu saw double top? I do not see there breakout.. {image}
Hi Mario,

i trust u read this thread from the beginning, yes ? because if u did than u will see the Sell Signal, anyway i give u the benefit of the doubt and assume that u did.

ok here is the answer to your question;

  1. at the time that the 4hr tf gave the sell signal there was no double top,
  2. u only see the 2top after the fact, after price has formed it.
  3. on the Weekly chart at the time there would have been no red down bar, only 3 Up bars
  4. and the last weekly bar would give a very bullish look and perception, can u see them ?
  5. Now ? would u have shorted ?
  6. that is the power of this strategy, but it is very hard to pull the trigger if u don't believe.
  7. my strategy says plainly....higher tf, weekly in this case, establish trend...lower tf will generate the entry signals, 4hrs in this case. Enter on 4hr with a 50 pip Sl or a SL above the Signal bar
  8. When u want to trade the Weekly tf...then forget about the Monthly and Dly at this stage completely as u will get confused.
  9. Monthly and daily
  10. Weekly and 4hrs, that's all...don't mix them up.

​

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP 2top illustrated.png Size: 35 KB
  • #99
  • Apr 20, 2015 1:41pm Apr 20, 2015 1:41pm
Quoting LearnAlways
{quote} Hi sunshine, Do u mind showing me plainly what is the difference between how u draw and how I draw a horizontal line. I can't fathom what's wrong with it and based on your writings, sorry I'm not a smart ass. haha. Wish I was though. Best Regards, LearnAlways

Nothing wrong with your understanding, only u extend your lines too much to the right and i'm just concerned that it may confuse u unwittingly.

  1. only one rising or declining price line should intersect with the horizontal depending on whether we looking at LSH's or LSL's respectively.
  2. after price has closed above the LSH then we do not draw horizontal lines anymore unless price in that same tf closes below a LSL...which will now mean, no more buys or the trend has reversed, depending if it is a long Term tf or an entry tf.


look at your post #82 of 19 April at the Weekly line chart....2 lines intersect your yellow line.
...that weekly line should not be there because in an uptrend we are concerned only with the LSL...and the line that u drew is neither a Swing Low nor a Swing High that has been broken.
...in fact on your weekly chart as displayed should be no horizontal lines. can u see it ? if not clear ...i will try again.

  • #100
  • Apr 21, 2015 6:35am Apr 21, 2015 6:35am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} Nothing wrong with your understanding, only u extend your lines too much to the right and i'm just concerned that it may confuse u unwittingly. only one rising or declining price line should intersect with the horizontal depending on whether we looking at LSH's or LSL's respectively. after price has closed above the LSH then we do not draw horizontal lines anymore unless price in that same tf closes below a LSL...which will now mean, no more buys or the trend has reversed, depending if it is a long Term tf or an entry tf. look at your post...
Thanks sunshine for having the patience, do u mind showing on LINE chart, the difference between how u draw and how I draw if u don't mind?
I think I need to re-read your thread again, because my understanding is u are looking at the most current price behavior hence I mistook the SLOPE of the LINE as the most important part in your methodology, because its the most current price, seems like I'm terribly wrong.
I only know I know nothing
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