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  • #281
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:19am Apr 16, 2015 10:19am
Quoting HighFivve
Buy above the last high. Sell below the last low.
Thanks Yaed for driving home the REAL PA simplicity.. and the VERY clear charts . Would you say Buying or Selling on the retrace of the break would increase profit and reduce drawdown. ? good pips[/quote]
Sorry, missed that one.
Not sure what you mean, can you refrase the question?
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  • #282
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:20am Apr 16, 2015 10:20am
Quoting Mrdj
Hi, Thanks for good thread. I always was interested in PA. Could u tell me if I good check buys (green) and sells on this EU D1?{image}
Erh, well, why not?
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  • #283
  • Apr 16, 2015 10:21am Apr 16, 2015 10:21am
Quoting jlee425
can you summarize your strategy
Im trying too.
I dont think i can make simple like: When it goes to x, you push the button and wait.
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  • #284
  • Edited 10:41am Apr 16, 2015 10:27am | Edited 10:41am
Retracements anyone?


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If that doesnt get your marbles rolling, how about this one?

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I repeat: There is no FIXED take profits and stoplosses, those calculations can ONLY be computed on what is happening and how what is happening will effect the intepretation of what HAS happend.

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So what if it DOESNT come there? What do i know, i will probably sell.
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  • #285
  • Edited 11:37am Apr 16, 2015 11:00am | Edited 11:37am
Keeping track of ideas, and what i wish i knew 5 years ago
Erh, look, i sort of use maybe a lot of ideas when i trade. I jumble them together and weigh them back and forth and forget some and do misstakes and what ever. I experiment, with real money and my own psychology. I trade my feeling, but not my FEELINGS. There is a big difference. I dont know any so called "system" that is worth a damn. My approach may seem unsystematic, and what do i know, maybe it is. Anyway, my approach is a big total grip on a bunch of ideas that maybe, sort of works. Or not, what do i know? But i keep at it, and my confidence and skill grow IN GENERAL over time. Well anyway. What i would like to tell a newbie right now is just one simple H4 chart and very clear explanations:

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I WISH i read that 5 years ago. I WISH somebody would put it this simple, if anyone did, i would UNDERSTAND IT and have had use of this information. I didnt find anyone who did, THATS WHY IM DOING IT NOW! Because i want to give some people the opurtunity to skip those 84578475 hours of pain and misery that i had to go through to find out this simple thing. This world has enough of pain and misery as it is!

Just to make sure ive done all i POSSIBLY can to make this AS CLEAR AS I POSSIBLY CAN! I am going to give it to yah straight on whats going on now.
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So that means the newest high might WELL be broken, because the last low was only moved down some 3 pip or so from the last low. So the balance of power right now is quite equal. A cautious trader would NOT trade at all right now. I am NOT cautious. So all in all, there is a SLIGHT power balance in favour of shorts, because there was a new low, even though it was very slight. But, that doesnt mean IM CORRECT. ALSO it doesnt mean you wont profit with your shorts if you place some right now, because a new low can be created BELOW current place, and probably will, getting you some profits on open sells. So EVEN IF IM wrong about the power balance tipping slightly to the sellers, selling now can STILL be a bit of a good idea, but maybe not a GREAT idea.

It might shoot up like fucking crazy, 50 pip in 5 minutes. I HIGHLY doubt that, because of experience and pattern recognition and such things. I doubt it enough that even if my demo account was a REAL account, i would not place ANY stoplosses TODAY. I dont ask that you trade like me. I dont ask that you do ANYTHING at all. Im telling you what IM DOING. What you do or dont, thats your business.

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For your information: I adjust my TPs A LOT. Many times a day depending on what ever happens.

Like so for instance, i made the TPs slightly more modest:

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If ALL goes well with these TPs as are, i will bank 30 bucks. Im down -82 bucks as is right now on open positions. That means i need to have about 3 times as big a probability to profit then to loose. Im counting on a probability of around .85 something like that.
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  • #286
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:38am Apr 16, 2015 11:38am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Thanks Yaed for driving home the REAL PA simplicity.. and the VERY clear charts . Would you say Buying or Selling on the retrace of the break would increase profit and reduce drawdown. ? good pips
Sorry, missed that one. Not sure what you mean, can you refrase the question?[/quote]
Yes thankx
when a 1h swing is broken -- enter at the retrace to the break- verses boarding the train on the fly (stops triggered)

good pips
Learn THEN Unlearn
  • #287
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:42am Apr 16, 2015 11:42am
Right now though, i prefer this setup.
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Im not sure exactly why. Probably its got something to do with the ideas of this person:

http://www.forexfactory.com/neio
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  • #288
  • Edited 11:54am Apr 16, 2015 11:43am | Edited 11:54am
Quoting HighFivve
{quote} Sorry, missed that one. Not sure what you mean, can you refrase the question?
Yes thankx when a 1h swing is broken -- enter at the retrace to the break- verses boarding the train on the fly (stops triggered) good pips[/quote]
Im getting there... can you show me in a chart?

By the way i prefer Luigi. Marios anatomy is controary to hus jumping skill. Luigis anatomy is way more adjusted to such tasks.
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  • #289
  • Apr 16, 2015 11:51am Apr 16, 2015 11:51am
A note about news
I dont care for fundamentals at all. To me the numbers ARE the fundamentals. Most of the time i dont even bother looking at what news comes when. To me its all a part of the charts anyway.
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  • #290
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:31am Apr 17, 2015 2:31am
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  • #291
  • Apr 17, 2015 6:28am Apr 17, 2015 6:28am
Anyway, this is the most important chart right now i think. Its the most basic and therefore the most important.

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It doesnt cover ALL the highs and lows of that chart, but it explains the logic of which direction to choose.
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  • #292
  • Apr 17, 2015 7:10am Apr 17, 2015 7:10am
Shitty breakout
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Like this one that i finally got tired of.

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The next one i was wise enough to close out as it didnt work out. Also it was twice the leverage.

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See, if i didnt close that one out it would be pretty deep in the shitter right now:

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But i can pat myself on the back with some of these:

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  • #293
  • Apr 17, 2015 7:29am Apr 17, 2015 7:29am
M1
Oh by the way, i havent said anything as to why i stare at M1. Well its the same logic of high and lows here:

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  • #294
  • Apr 17, 2015 7:30am Apr 17, 2015 7:30am
Quoting HighFivve
{quote} Sorry, missed that one. Not sure what you mean, can you refrase the question?
Yes thankx when a 1h swing is broken -- enter at the retrace to the break- verses boarding the train on the fly (stops triggered) good pips[/quote]

  • #295
  • Apr 17, 2015 7:35am Apr 17, 2015 7:35am
Quoting yaed
Shitty breakout {image} Like this one that i finally got tired of. {image}
Yes yead, this can absolutely cause issues!

You're too far out on a 1H to tell if you're trading spot.
If you don't have futures orderflow data to work with, drill down on a 1 min chart. What you're looking for is a buyer to break the seller 'visually' and that will mean your short for a further break down is done/over.
So you may see intent to cap trade under the break to squeeze longs out above the break, but the seller cannot hold and buyers blow them out(back inside).
If it spends almost zero time under the break and swiftly 'sucks' back inside, then you exit shorts and work longs off the back of failed shorts under the break as they get squeezed.
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If you have access to orderflow for the futures market you'll need the 6E and 6B DOMs.
If you see the 6E rip through offers and go bid but the 6B goes unresponsive in terms of buy side orderflow then exit the EURGBP short.

Breaks pay the best because on a true break, there is simultaneous initiation and liquidation. This creates a skew in the orderflow.
Regards
  • #296
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:13am Apr 17, 2015 8:13am
Quoting skfx
{quote} Yes yead, this can absolutely cause issues! You're too far out on a 1H to tell if you're trading spot. If you don't have futures orderflow data to work with, drill down on a 1 min chart. What you're looking for is a buyer to break the seller 'visually' and that will mean your short for a further break down is done/over. So you may see intent to cap trade under the break to squeeze longs out above the break, but the seller cannot hold and buyers blow them out(back inside). If it spends almost zero time under the break and swiftly 'sucks'...
Well, i answer a chart with another chart. Or actually its part of the same chart, but anyway...

Its about the mechanics of the market, and it would be very interesting to pick you brain about this.
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  • #297
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:19am Apr 17, 2015 8:19am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well, i answer a chart with another chart. Or actually its part of the same chart, but anyway... Its about the mechanics of the market, and it would be very interesting to pick you brain about this. {image}
And i guess thats why there wont ever be a simple EA that can sell on the break of the low of the day before and buy on the break of the high of the day before.
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  • #298
  • Edited 9:01am Apr 17, 2015 8:38am | Edited 9:01am
Quoting yaed
{quote} Well, i answer a chart with another chart. Or actually its part of the same chart, but anyway... Its about the mechanics of the market, and it would be very interesting to pick you brain about this. {image}
Sell side has failed only when the seller gets broken and the buyer takes over.
Isn't that logical yaed?
Regards
  • #299
  • Apr 17, 2015 8:40am Apr 17, 2015 8:40am
Quoting yaed
{quote} And i guess thats why there wont ever be a simple EA that can sell on the break of the low of the day before and buy on the break of the high of the day before.
Yes, exactly!
Regards
  • #300
  • Apr 17, 2015 2:29pm Apr 17, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting skfx
{quote} Sell side has failed only when the seller gets broken and the buyer takes over. Isn't that logical yaed? Regards
It is. Only issue is to decide when that has happend. Its NOT impossible though. Both you and i are of that opinion. You have been thinking so for 7 years, i have for 6 years. You know first time i ever traded i made i 10% in two days, almost no drawdown. The problem though that didnt happen then was, what would i have done if my trades didnt work out? Thats the question i have been answering for 6 years. One year later i blew 75% of my account before i realised i was totally fucked.

Sorry i let you down about the list of actors. Thats just the way i am. I do the numbers, thats it. Its not going to change until it does or does not. To me its logical.

Ive seen your charts for 5 years when i close my eyes. I can still see them clear as day. I do the numbers, thats it. Thanks. Not some bullshit "thanks". Noone commits bullshit to memory for 5 years.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=193795

Those charts. Happy trading. I know for a fact you dont need it, but it cant hurt.
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