Almost cable went target it moved so quick
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DislikedHere's something to start with I'm seeing lots of people expecting new lows for EURUUSD. Personally, I don't have any setups for that pair, but I'm slightly more on the bullish camp. Why am I more bullish than bearish, and what are my targets? 1- USDCHF High Probability setup The inverse correlation between USDCHF & EURUSD is no secret. Eventhough I don't have a high probability setup for EU, I do have one for USDCHF. According to my calculations there's a >95% probability that USDCHF will make a new low below 0.9490 before any new high In other...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hello FX-Jay I just came across with your thread.... My respect to your analysis on UCH ..... Could you please share your thoughts on this one once more? After testing 97.7 zone I'was expecting retest 94.6 zone again... but now it seems it doesn't wanna come down..... I'd appreciate If you share your insides on UCH's next move... Thanks TBIgnored
Disliked{quote} After reaching the 94.9 target there was no new high probability signal for me to follow so I'm completely on the sideline when it comes to UCH However given the fact that I see coming weakness on EURUSD and strength on USDJPY, then if I had to chose between a buy or a sell on UCH I would rather go for a buy in the short/medium term. Depending on currency correlation isn't always the best thing to do, but it would at least help you confirm or reject the setup you have in mind Hope the above helpsIgnored
DislikedHere's one high probability trade + the best way to trade it: USDJPY will almost certainly reach the 120.73 high. I wouldn't recommend buying at these prices since we are only 25 pips away from the target. An additional 50 pip retrace would be perfect, but unfortunately not guaranteed. The most optimal entry 'time wise' would be on Monday just in case the target wasn't hit by then. Once the target is reached we move to the next oneIgnored
Disliked{quote} We got a nice retrace + Monday came & the target haven't been reached yet. So as mentioned before, today should be a very good day for entry. In my opinion the closure of the opening gap was the best place to get in, if you weren't still awake during that time (like me) then current levels aren't that bad for an entry, and will give us a nice 40 pips. Personally I'm in from 120.19 , added @120.31 , and I'm looking forward to add some more if price dips some more. Based on my calculation I can give this trade a probability >95%Ignored
Dislikedas you probably have noticed, the EURUSD already decided in what direction to move. Personally I believe that this is not all, probabilities favor a new low below 1.0462. The period between Monday & Wednesday was very important & there was 1 price to look at: 1.1050 If EU was able to exceed that level by Wednesday, the probability for a new low would have been either delayed or cancelled all together. However, the fact that it didn't reach that level greatly shifted the probabilities towards having a new low.Ignored
DislikedYou may have realized that using the time factor has a very important role in my analysis I believe that in order to be successful you need to combine both the price & time into your decision. PA by itself isn't enough. I will take the time factor to the extreme & share a high probability trade that is purely based on time rather than price. I haven't seen anyone attempt this before... If you have, please do share the link. The high probability trade is AUDUSD short (sorry for the AU bulls out there) 1st short entry: Wednesday, US Opening (15/04)...Ignored
DislikedI have an extremely high probability for EURAUD to make a new low below 1.3785 sometime during the coming 3 weeks.Ignored
Disliked{quote} It's true that time is important in analysis and of course timing during all sessions (like London open, London lunch time etc.), but I haven't heard that sb. makes decisions only based on timeI agree with your opinion that AUDUSD is going to make new low in next days, but could you tell me how are going to place stop loss? Above last peak on specific timeframe? Best regards!
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DislikedYou may have realized that using the time factor has a very important role in my analysis I believe that in order to be successful you need to combine both the price & time into your decision. PA by itself isn't enough. I will take the time factor to the extreme & share a high probability trade that is purely based on time rather than price. I haven't seen anyone attempt this before... If you have, please do share the link. The high probability trade is AUDUSD short (sorry for the AU bulls out there) 1st short entry: Wednesday, US Opening (15/04)...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Concerning this setup, I would like to mention that during the last 7 years (from Jan 2008) there have been 59 similar setups to the one I currently have on EURAUD All of them were successful and reached target. Past performance doesn't guarantee the future, but it does at least allow you to open a position and be able to sleep comfortablyIgnored
Disliked{quote} hi Fx-Jay, you have brought up a very important point about time factor - knowing what times big players in the market take their positions/hedge their exposure etc gives a bigger edge than just price action. In fact some strategies (like london oopen breakout) do take time factor into account. like you, i would even say knowing time effect is more important than the price itself. there are some reliable patterns in how big money trades and knowing and aligning with that is very beneficial.Ignored
DislikedHi Jay, Could you please little write about timing tools you see value on trading? As i understand for timing tools your stop is time, not price.... Actually it is some frightening.I spent lots of time studying on timing tools. From fixed cycles to astrological aspects, astronomical cycles to Delta Phenomenon etc. They have common problems. Sometimes a turn in a cycle cause only flat correction in price or very often inversions cause big losses. What I see fixed cycles are only good in the long term and only help to have a...
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Disliked{quote} Hey Jay, without giving too much away, is that 59 out of 59 success rate for EUR.AUD based on TZs at all? And if so, daily or H4? 59 is a small sample size, but even so... 100% is hugely impressive!Ignored