I'd rather be lucky than good - 72.3% returns since start 2014

Hi All

I have been trading for more than 5 years and have finally gotten decent at it in the past 2.5 years. I am posting this journal just to get a sense of how other traders think I am doing and if it generates any interest. Things I hope to discuss about:

 

1. trading methodologies
2. ways to keep proper documentation and track record
3. my performance relative to others with similar account size
4. how to make the jump to trade for a fund or become a proprietary trader

You can ask me anything on my trading and I will be happy to share. I hope to take my trading to the next level hence the 4th point. Will be grateful for any advise.

performance of my trading can be found on my username linked trade report.

HI disarmed,

impressive performance. i would like to ask how you usally trade? and how do you keep your record?

regards,

FG

Sorry for the late reply, I am a manual discretionary trader who trades on my laptop in the evenings or iphone during office hours. So far I only rely on Oanda statements to keep records.

Hi disarmed,

Noob talking here (by experience, not by my age unfortunately ;o), so you might want to take what I say with a big pinch of salt.

There is one thing that eludes me in your approach, from what I see on your Trade explorer.

When do you decide to close ?

What is happening at the moment with your E/S opened trades on your TE is a perfect illustration of what I am trying to say.

By adding on quite a few averaging down trades, you are now at 5:1, which from the way you trade (or at least you seem to trade, because I am no expert) should start to ring a little alarm bell.

Why didn´t you close this serie of trade before by setting a TP that would have hit on the 21st of April for exemple, or the 23rd of April with a very decent % return ?
You could have then restarted a « cycle » or whatever you want to call it, back to your starting more confortable leverage.

I understand if the E/S tanks next week or the week after (NFP coming) then you will have a very nice % return because you are building up the position.
But on another hand, your risk is getting exponential too by averaging down, and if it turns wrong (long term fundamental is down on E/S but sentiment seems to get quite positive at the moment so it « might » happen, just because anything can happen) you might get uncomfortable, wouldn´t you ?

So my question is just : how do you manage your take profit (just manually when you get back from work in the evening?), to understand why you didn´t cover your positions during the day either on the 21st or 23rd of April ?

I hope I do make sense.

I am obviously asking you that, because it is of interest for my own experience too :o)
You are not obliged to answer at all !!!!:o)

Thanks a lot for your time,
Cheers,
J-F

Hi J-F
many qtns, I will try to answer as best as I can.

When do you decide to close ?
I target Eur/Usd trade either near parity 1.005 or below. Depending on how it play out

What is happening at the moment with your E/S opened trades on your TE is a perfect illustration of what I am trying to say. By adding on quite a few averaging down trades, you are now at 5:1, which from the way you trade (or at least you seem to trade, because I am no expert) should start to ring a little alarm bell.
Yes it is in a losing position. I may close half of it if it runs above 1.09. As my trade is not exactly short term nor am I looking for a few pips, I can accept such a position at the moment. My current position size is 180,000 eur/usd. My ideal full position for this trade is 800,000 eur/usd. So I am only about 1/4 of my full position. Also, I am up ~ $9,000 this year, I think this trade is worth taking and having the losing position. For now lol.

Why didnt you close this serie of trade before by setting a TP that would have hit on the 21st of April for exemple, or the 23rd of April with a very decent % return ? You could have then restarted a cycle or whatever you want to call it, back to your starting more confortable leverage.
I did, if you noticed I had a small position which I took profit this month. However, as I have learnt, it is impossible to time the market. It is VERY easy to say on hindsight but no one ever really knows when the retracement or the pullback will occur. My trade is based on the hypothesis that eur/usd will reach parity in the next few months. It is at the moment a longer term trade. However this does not give me the excuse to accumulate a large losing position. Like I mentioned I will close half if the loss gets too big for my own comfort.

But on another hand, your risk is getting exponential too by averaging down, and if it turns wrong (long term fundamental is down on E/S but sentiment seems to get quite positive at the moment so it might happen, just because anything can happen) you might get uncomfortable, wouldnt you ?
Refer to previous answer

how do you manage your take profit (just manually when you get back from work in the evening?), to understand why you didnt cover your positions during the day either on the 21st or 23rd of April ? I hope I do make sense. I am obviously asking you that, because it is of interest for my own experience too
I am able to monitor my positions during work so I can close trades if I see the need to. I didn't cover as mentioned because I am targeting the big moment of parity.

Having said so, I believe I may take a while for eur/usd to continue its journey down. I shall wait and monitor closely for now. It certainly looks ugly with so many small losing positions at the moment.

Hi disarmed,

thanks a lot for all your well explained and precise answers.

I obviously completely misread your intention, trying to read through your Trade Explorer.
Sorry about that.

If you target parity, then obviously I understand why you are still opened as long as your comfort zone can stomach the drawdown.

An ideal final 20:1 position and target reached at parity would definitely be a nice trade, and would give a massive boost to your capital.

It seems that fundamentals are with you, but actual sentiment not really. That being said, it might be exactly the best scenario, with a very brutal change at some point in the next few days, weeks, months...

Fingers crossed!

All the best,
Cheers,
J-F