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  • #181
  • Apr 8, 2015 4:52pm Apr 8, 2015 4:52pm
Quoting Good Lookin
{quote} I see what your saying here. I agree when it comes to the hindsight analysis. Especially when it comes to fibs, oscillators, and moving averages, but don't knock this guy yet. He has been posting some entries before they happen and they have been going to profit.
The thing is that there are tons and tons of entries, but no simple exits. Putting a trailing S/L of f.ex 10 pips on a sell wont give you profits if the Low is less than 10 pips lower than the Open.
And what if the price fluctuates a lot within a day? Putting a trailing S/L minimizes risk, but also profits.
Below is a simple and relevant example.
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The middle horizontal line is the last day's low. According to Yaed's plan, you would want to sell at this point the next day. The trade can give us a potential gain of 40.3 pips, but we would get stopped out and gain only 9 pips. We can't see this in the daily candle, but it is easily visible here, in the 15m.
From yesterday's low, there are 26 pips between where we got stopped out and another 15m-chart-high. The question really is: what is the optimal S/L setting? A high S/L gives us too few wins, and a low S/L gives us too little profit.
Another option would be to manually close the trade, - but what is the exit signal?
'tis a struggle.
less than
  • #182
  • Apr 9, 2015 12:23am Apr 9, 2015 12:23am
Quoting cherader
A demo trader preaching people how to get rich. Show us your live account and its equity curve or it won't happen!
I show you the charts. If thats not enough, nothing is enough. I do technical analysis, not some psychoanalysis thing.
What then if i show you a nice live account with a curve? Will you kiss my feet? What is going to happen that is so exiting? You belive me? I DONT FUCKING CARE, if you belive me or not! Im not here to preach. I have nothing to gain from your opinion.
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  • #183
  • Apr 9, 2015 12:24am Apr 9, 2015 12:24am
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  • #184
  • Apr 9, 2015 12:25am Apr 9, 2015 12:25am
Quoting Good Lookin
{quote} I see what your saying here. I agree when it comes to the hindsight analysis. Especially when it comes to fibs, oscillators, and moving averages, but don't knock this guy yet. He has been posting some entries before they happen and they have been going to profit.
EXACTLY! You get it! Congratulations you are smarter then 80% of the people on this forum! You look at the evidence not the bla bla bla.
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  • #185
  • Edited 3:27am Apr 9, 2015 3:04am | Edited 3:27am
Quoting Saturday
{quote} The thing is that there are tons and tons of entries, but no simple exits. Putting a trailing S/L of f.ex 10 pips on a sell wont give you profits if the Low is less than 10 pips lower than the Open. And what if the price fluctuates a lot within a day? Putting a trailing S/L minimizes risk, but also profits. Below is a simple and relevant example. {image} The middle horizontal line is the last day's low. According to Yaed's plan, you would want to sell at this point the next day. The trade can give us a potential gain of 40.3 pips, but we...
Exit signal is for instance when M5 Pa seems to slow down.
Look, if its almost 100% probability to get a profit, why worry so much with SL? To do something specifically usefull would be to find a place on the E/G chart where selling at the break of last days low and buying at the break of last days high is NOT a profitable deal at some point. Look, if its that safe, you just wait until you see the profit, and if that profit starts to go away, you close it, ok? I mean does it matter of you get -50 on a position when you can with relative safety say it doesnt matter since you WILL get a profit eventually.

So like i was saying, the really usefull thing to do is find a place where it DOESNT work. That kind of information is usefull. Im looking to FALSIFY the assumptiont that its a good idea to do it. Im TRYING to prove myself wrong! It would be nice if it works well as it seems, but i need to be as sure as i can about it. And its the same for you if you are looking to get some money.

Its so strange people assume a fixed SL and a fixed TP. Its how the market moves that is a function of the answer. If first it goes fast, then slow, then fast again and then really slow, the TP maybe should be 15? Depends on the pair, but im looking at E/G. It seems the best for this kind of thing.

100 pip + profit is NOT PROBABLE to happen within 24 hours. If you are aiming for this much, you gotta rely on inside information. You gotta have the fundamentals BEHIND the fundamentals. The REAL fundamentals. At this level of time, there is no math or ANYTHING i know to decide the future. Meaning, from what i know, mathematically NOTHING AT ALL is possible to say with any accuracy. If you are aiming for more then this, then you have connections that MAYBE is going to shoot you if you start blabbing about them.

50 pip profit is POSSIBLE. You gotta stay for some pain if you want this much. Look at H1 price action. If you are selling, and it creates new lows in H1, well its ON and its on until it kind gets sour! Reverse for buy.

I would say 20 pips profit is GOOD. You dont screw around with a 20 pip profit when there is VERY LITTLE chance of loss. Look at M5 PA, If a sell moves breaks new lows on M5, then its ON until it kinda gets sour.

10 pips is pretty small, but if its all you are getting before it screws around with yah too much, then fine, 10 is what you get. Remember, its hard to find the losses, so what does it matter if its 2 pip, 4, 8 or 10? Its what you multiply it with that gets you the end result, yes? So long as you can take the beatdown of the drawdown? See? Whats the loss?

8 pip is small.

5 is weirdly small. Small amounts of data suggest the TP would have to be this small.

And then subtract the spread of course.
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  • #186
  • Apr 9, 2015 3:21am Apr 9, 2015 3:21am
Quoting Good Lookin
{quote} Even if Yaed runs his account into the ground that doesn't mean breakout trading doesn't work. I remember seeing 2 threads specifically where the person(s) involved successfully demo'd trades many real time trades and made money consistently, they eventually went to skype and continued on from there. Also i've read in plenty of literature and seen from a couple of different studies that breakouts tend to be one of the more successful strats. Furthermore, when you consider the possibility of stop cascades and price gaps, then you have a little...
Well way i see it proof is in the charts. I just apply various forms of ideas on it and see what happens. Ive been trough all that i could find of other peoples stuff. Not usefull.

You see my point. Even if i showed accounts with 100.000.000 $, the proof will STILL be in the charts or not be in the charts.
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  • #187
  • Apr 9, 2015 3:33am Apr 9, 2015 3:33am
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  • #188
  • Apr 9, 2015 3:36am Apr 9, 2015 3:36am
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  • #189
  • Apr 9, 2015 8:13am Apr 9, 2015 8:13am
Quoting Saturday
{quote} The thing is that there are tons and tons of entries, but no simple exits. Putting a trailing S/L of f.ex 10 pips on a sell wont give you profits if the Low is less than 10 pips lower than the Open. And what if the price fluctuates a lot within a day? Putting a trailing S/L minimizes risk, but also profits. Below is a simple and relevant example. {image} The middle horizontal line is the last day's low. According to Yaed's plan, you would want to sell at this point the next day. The trade can give us a potential gain of 40.3 pips, but we...
Yaed spoke on this already but i wanna add and reinforce a thing or two.

I understand the example of stop placement is just an example so with that i wanna say small 10 pip stops in the spot fx market is a recipe for disaster if you're not trading 5 min and 1 minute charts. Price variation from broker to broker will can be around 10 pips. Then when you consider how highly correlated each pair is, it makes it even harder to have a small stop. News on the Yen will move the Pound 10 pips. That's something to be aware of. Saudi Air Strikes? Did you see oil go? Every pair reacted. That's one of the reasons people say Forex is the hardest market to trade. News from anywhere at any time can have an effect on everything.

To add to Yaed's comment on stop setting. Instead of setting a 10 pip stop, set a larger stop. For example; normally use a 10 pip stop and risk 10 bucks? Set a 100 pip stop and risk 10 bucks. Let your profit targets remain the same. If its 50 pips profit then its 50 pips profit. If your targeting the next low or high then so be it. You can also just not set a stop at all and trade small enough that you don't sweat a -200 pip move. Now, while you do this you don't just let positions hit your stop or go deep negative. You exit when you feel that it doesn't make sense to be in the trade anymore. Be aware that this idea of what makes sense gets developed from chart time, stat studies, news studies. Generally whatever factors you find works for you. But you have to put in a lot of time. Neurologically, its just the way we're built.

Somewhere to start taking off positions is an opposing entry, maybe before nfp, maybe you feel that "U.S. jobless claims data point to strengthening labor market" and its time to exit your position. Let it be. It's never as easy as just do this and that and you win, but over time, you'll be able to see clearly possible entries without a second thought and then you can spend more mental energy developing an opinion about possible exits.
  • #190
  • Apr 9, 2015 1:07pm Apr 9, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting Mariodrugs
{quote} Can you explain me why buy above 0.73496 line and sell below 0.72829 line ?? Is it support and ressistances ?
Its very simple: Buy when it breaks the high of the day before, sell when it breaks the low of the day before.
Its very, very simple. If still you dont get it, i dont really know what to do. I given, i dunno 15 charts showing EXACTLY that.
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  • #191
  • Apr 9, 2015 1:16pm Apr 9, 2015 1:16pm
OK i will do it one more time.
This is all the info you need, if thats what you feel like:

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I dont know how i can say this any more clearly: The lowest price of the day before is the current days place to sell. The highest price of the day before is the current days place to buy.

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Thats E/G H1. I looked at other pairs, but its the best with E/G. So far that i know.
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  • #192
  • Apr 10, 2015 2:40am Apr 10, 2015 2:40am
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Two orders.
Those TPs are prone to change, i just put them there in case there would be a big spike downwards.
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  • #193
  • Apr 10, 2015 2:51am Apr 10, 2015 2:51am
Money as a function of an equation

We all want the money right? Yeah we do. Otherwise why bother, right? So how much is enough? This data suggest couple of twenty grand is enough. In oh i dunnno 50 iterations at average 10 pip = 500, if you risk say 100 in SL on each, and if like data suggest, IT NEVER HAPPEND. Then you have youre 500 pip and multiply that by say 1.5 lots is pretty ok for that account, that risk = 7.500 of base currency. That is enough to live on. If you dont withdraw you got 27.500 of base currency after those 50 bank days.
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  • #194
  • Apr 10, 2015 2:55am Apr 10, 2015 2:55am
Well there you go, all done.
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  • #195
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:00am Apr 10, 2015 3:00am
Simple thing really.
Took what, 15 minutes today? And its the best trading strategy in the world that i know of. An EA could be made to do it of course. Probably there are plenty that do that already, hedgefunds and such.

Its so simple i couldnt make a seminar about. Its not subjective. Its not hard. There is no learning what so ever attached to it. No interpretation. No thinking. Its really boring and really, really simple: Sell at the break of yesterdays low, buy and the break of yesterdays high.

I havent seen anyone explain it that simple. I do know two other people in this world who knows about this. Both on this forum. Neither have the balls to give it clean and simple like im doing here. If the banks or what ever wants me to shut up, they had better gimme a call and make an offer. Otherwise i will be on about this all the time, to HWOEVER wants to know how to make money in trading. This is what i believe, and this is what the data suggest.
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  • #196
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:03am Apr 10, 2015 3:03am
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  • #197
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:10am Apr 10, 2015 3:10am
Quoting yaed
Simple thing really. Took what, 15 minutes today? And its the best trading strategy in the world that i know of. An EA could be made to do it of course. Probably there are plenty that do that already, hedgefunds and such. Its so simple i couldnt make a seminar about. Its not subjective. Its not hard. There is no learning what so ever attached to it. No interpretation. No thinking. Its really boring and really, really simple: Sell at the break of yesterdays low, buy and the break of yesterdays high. I havent seen anyone explain it that simple. I...
Are you looking for EA to do this good job what you show us?
  • #198
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:14am Apr 10, 2015 3:14am
Quoting deepak194
{quote} this one is a good idea. not sure if this works in lower time frame. 15min-1hr, have you tested on those time frames ?
Im afraid i dont understand the question. If you do buy at the break of yesterdays high, and do sell at the break of yesterdays low, it doesnt matter if you are looking at a chart or not, or which ever chart you are looking at. What matters is you do it at those levels.
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  • #199
  • Edited 3:35am Apr 10, 2015 3:15am | Edited 3:35am
Quoting Mrdj
{quote} Are you looking for EA to do this good job what you show us?
Its boring, but i think it works
Looking for? Im saying pretty much anyone can make it in oh i dunno a few afternoons and then never worry about money ever again. If it works like the data suggest.

Anyway, why would i want to do it myself? Its really boring just staring at the screen for hours and hours. I do technical analysis, and i have been doing for many years. This is my result of 5 years, this thing you can read about here. The best i could do so far. If i think of anything better, i will tell you. But i wouldnt consider it "a job" to sit and click once the price passes either of two lines. A really simple program can do it just as well.

Dont get me wrong, maybe i WILL do it myself even though its really boring. But if i DO, it wont be for long. Like i have been saying for many years, im not a good trader, im a technical analyst. Thats what im good at. I take the charts and i analyze. Try to find entries, exists and so on that is systematic or at least semi systematic. I get turned on by the prospect of freedom through trading. Freedom from idiot bosses talking bullshit in my ear.

The intellect of a fly or frog is far more complex then what you need to trade this way. It doesnt need a trader, it needs a brain damaged house fly to operate. But the brain power that it took to actually arrive here, well thats another story. Like i said, i know only two other people who knows this. And a realised it when i realised this. They have left hints, but they dont say it like i do. And they where talking about the wrong pair also. Well doesnt matter. Also it doesnt matter to me what you think. What matters to me is that i have been working a long time and im sharing my results in the spirit of freedom, honesty, comradery and truth. Personal opinions does NOT have any substance or measure of meaning in this. The sharing comes as it is anyway.

There is FAR to little freedom, comradery, honesty and truth in this world. Im just trying to put some more of those things out there. Probably i wont get shit back, probably i will just get scorn and idiots blathering. But at least i have done my bit to make this a more beautiful world. Beautiful because from what i know im spreading knowledge that some super rich have, and im giving it away to anyone who wants to have a look at it.

I will remember these days as i lie in my bed about to leave (die) my bio suit (physical body) this time. I will remember i told the world how to make money out of money. Im not so sure what happend afterwards, because it havent happend yet. But i will remember this. Many years from now. Most of you will remember it vaguely as a strategy you never actually applied to a chart, if at all you will remember it. Maybe some of you made hundreds of millions of what ever base currency you prefer. Maybe not. But all those things are important only in another way. I will die knowing i did my will in this, i played my part as i chose to play it.
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  • #200
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:38am Apr 10, 2015 3:38am
Quoting Unabletrader
Hi. The real problem is you pretend to be a trader (someone who basically buys and sells) but in the same time you have no idea about what's your equilibrium price on your time frame. So as far I'm concerned, price isn't enough to make money.
Well considering youre profile name, im not going to take that very harsh. Also, if you did want to say something technical, you should probably use a chart or several.
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