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  • #201
  • Apr 2, 2015 6:41pm Apr 2, 2015 6:41pm
hey guys.

Just tossing out my screen here to give a general reference on the GA pair.
I am looking to short it if price break below the 1.9550 level.

Let me know what you think.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-02_16-39-06.jpg Size: 186 KB
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #202
  • Apr 2, 2015 7:56pm Apr 2, 2015 7:56pm
^ dont know man. GA looking kinda strong to me.
  • #203
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:22am Apr 3, 2015 6:22am
Quoting FXSayWhat
hey guys. Just tossing out my screen here to give a general reference on the GA pair. I am looking to short it if price break below the 1.9550 level. Let me know what you think. {image}
By looking at PA my view on GA and GN is bearish.
But news is coming soon on Non-farm employment change and RBA interest rates next week.
Those news could be catalyst to further south, but the opposite could happen too.
So...maybe the safest way is to wait until the news release, but it could also mean missed opportunity...
  • #204
  • Apr 3, 2015 10:26am Apr 3, 2015 10:26am
Quoting Idkurv
GA H4 bearish harmonic pattern, rejected at fibo 23.6, will see if GA will fall, or extension further up... GN H4 bullish harmonic pattern, now (1.992sh) already at fibo 38.2. confluence zone is around 2.0100 which is also fibo 50. will see. {quote} Closed Long GN Short GN, TP 1.98 TP2 1.97 Short GA, TP1 1.93 TP2 1.92 Will see.
GN TP1 and TP2 Hit
GA partial closed at 1.94sh, will see.
  • #205
  • Apr 3, 2015 1:07pm Apr 3, 2015 1:07pm
Quoting raiders
^ dont know man. GA looking kinda strong to me.
Overall GA is still quite bullish, but at this point of the time, I think I was looking at a quick correction at a good RR ratio.
On the other hand, I think my short hit its target at 1.9400 this morning after the NFP release.

Quoting Idkurv
{quote} By looking at PA my view on GA and GN is bearish. But news is coming soon on Non-farm employment change and RBA interest rates next week. Those news could be catalyst to further south, but the opposite could happen too. So...maybe the safest way is to wait until the news release, but it could also mean missed opportunity...
Yeah, I was just trying to fish for some pips couple hours before the news kicks in today.
I was just tossing this one out if anyone is interested, too.




I should have some trade highlights posted this weekend including this trade.

Cheers and hope you all have a wonderful weekend.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #206
  • Apr 6, 2015 1:44am Apr 6, 2015 1:44am
Quickly put up a set up for GA as we are stepping into the EUR section.

Waves,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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London is holiday today. So I don't expect heavy stuff comes down today.


PS
Although the PA is getting bearish, i wouldn't be too committed to the short trades as RBA is expected to cut rate this week. That would send GA up north.

Good luck.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #207
  • Apr 6, 2015 1:51am Apr 6, 2015 1:51am
Quoting FXSayWhat
Quickly put up a set up for GA as we are stepping into the EUR section. Waves, {image} London is holiday today. So I don't expect heavy stuff comes down today. PS Although the PA is getting bearish, i wouldn't be too committed to the short trades as RBA is expected to cut rate this week. That would send GA up north. Good luck.
Nice.
I have short position on GA I did short at 1.959.

Waiting RBA announcement tomorrow...if no rate cuts then...you know..
  • #208
  • Edited 5:22pm Apr 6, 2015 4:21pm | Edited 5:22pm
Look out for the AUD retail and rate decision today.
BOJ meeting is today and tomorrow.

I wouldn't expect to much from GA and GJ in the next 48 hours till after news settles.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #209
  • Apr 6, 2015 6:26pm Apr 6, 2015 6:26pm
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Nice. I have short position on GA I did short at 1.959. Waiting RBA announcement tomorrow...if no rate cuts then...you know..
Yeah, everyone media is talking about the rate cut today, but the risk of NOT having on is still on the table.
To those who does not trade, it's just a news. To us, it's profit or lose.

As for me, there is no point to bet some serious bucks before the news kicks in.

The 1.9600 level for GA is mostly like to hold before the retail number comes. A better than expected retail number and no-go on the rate cute would probably tank the GA for a good amount. And that would be the fundamental tipping point to go with this technical analysis (BEAR) from earlier http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8186669#post8186669.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #210
  • Apr 6, 2015 9:14pm Apr 6, 2015 9:14pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
The 1.9600 level for GA is mostly like to hold before the retail number comes. A better than expected retail number and no-go on the rate cute would probably tank the GA for a good amount. And that would be the fundamental tipping point to go with this technical analysis (BEAR) from earlier http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8186669#post8186669.
GA falls below the 1.9600 level after a better than expected retail number (AUD)
If AUD rate cut is a NO-GO today, I would expect GA fall even further technically and fundamentally.

On the second thoughts, where is the long cover orders before the tonight rate kicks in? I haven't seen one yet.
Would the retail number also trigger the long cover orders below the 1.9600 level? Maybe.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #211
  • Apr 6, 2015 9:47pm Apr 6, 2015 9:47pm
Quoting newleaf1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF8GhC-T_Mo {image}
Hi Newleaf,

Please follow the posting rule no.6.

Appreciated.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #212
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:44pm Apr 6, 2015 11:44pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Yeah, everyone media is talking about the rate cut today, but the risk of NOT having on is still on the table. To those who does not trade, it's just a news. To us, it's profit or lose. As for me, there is no point to bet some serious bucks before the news kicks in. The 1.9600 level for GA is mostly like to hold before the retail number comes. A better than expected retail number and no-go on the rate cute would probably tank the GA for a good amount. And that would be the fundamental tipping point to go with this technical analysis (BEAR)...
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} GA falls below the 1.9600 level after a better than expected retail number (AUD) If AUD rate cut is a NO-GO today, I would expect GA fall even further technically and fundamentally. On the second thoughts, where is the long cover orders before the tonight rate kicks in? I haven't seen one yet. Would the retail number also trigger the long cover orders below the 1.9600 level? Maybe.
So what do we get for a better retail number and a no-go on the rate cut?
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We get the point C.

Original Wave Pattern analysis
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8186669#post8186669


Quoting FXSayWhat
As for me, there is no point to bet some serious bucks before the news kicks in.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-06_19-25-12.jpg Size: 374 KB

And profit, of course.

Hope you all took this trade.

Cheers.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #213
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:45pm Apr 6, 2015 11:45pm
RBA rate unchanged at 2.25%, which makes me glad that I don't trade on analyst forecasts, as tempting as that may be.

Me personally: I will probably wait until the end of tomorrow's New York session/the beginning of tomorrow's Asian before seeing whether the movement here in GBP/AUD develops into something more profound or is just a reactive flash in the pan to the rate decision.

Kiwi reaction is understandably somewhat more muted ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #214
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:52pm Apr 6, 2015 11:52pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} {quote} So what do we get for a better retail number and a no-go on the rate cut? {image} We get the point C. Original Wave Pattern analysis http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=8186669#post8186669 {quote} {image} And profit, of course. Hope you all took this trade. Cheers.
Great analysis/call, by the way ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #215
  • Apr 6, 2015 11:53pm Apr 6, 2015 11:53pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
RBA rate unchanged at 2.25%, which makes me glad that I don't trade on analyst forecasts, as tempting as that may be. Me personally: I will probably wait until the end of tomorrow's New York session/the beginning of tomorrow's Asian before seeing whether the movement here in GBP/AUD develops into something more profound or is just a reactive flash in the pan to the rate decision.
I completely agree with you and too waiting for the next pull back before I dive in again.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #216
  • Apr 7, 2015 12:15am Apr 7, 2015 12:15am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I completely agree with you and too waiting for the next pull back before I dive in again.
Will be watching that level marked by the "C" on your chart (looks to be 1.9350-ish) to examine price's reaction to that level ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #217
  • Apr 7, 2015 12:24am Apr 7, 2015 12:24am
It is possible that there is a breakout play here (in GBP/AUD), which would involve a break below 1.9300:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Potential TP's: 1.9250, 1.9125, and 1.885.

Edit: It looks like 1.9298 is the post-NFP data low, the breaking of which could trigger some stops (pure speculation on my part).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #218
  • Apr 7, 2015 2:53am Apr 7, 2015 2:53am
I am expecting GA keeps going down, and AU keeps going up during European and US market.
(Of course retracement during the session)
  • #219
  • Apr 7, 2015 4:26am Apr 7, 2015 4:26am
Quoting Idkurv
{quote} Nice. I have short position on GA I did short at 1.959. Waiting RBA announcement tomorrow...if no rate cuts then...you know..
Closed at 1.94
Yes it is now 1.936sh..
Will see, perhaps seek to reload short..if ever bounce..
  • #220
  • Edited 4:49am Apr 7, 2015 4:33am | Edited 4:49am
Keep it in mind that GBP rate decision is coming up in 48 hours.
GBP rate hike rumor is still on although it is expected there will be no changes in this meeting...

But there will be volatility, monastery volatility by the time news hits the wires.

As GA is at its 38.2% on 1.9350, there is no show-hand how would the price action would react to this level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The fact I am having right now is,

  1. The last recent visit on the 1.9350 gave a 300 pips rebound.
  2. Resistant is at 1.9650. Support is at 1.9350.
  3. GA bull trend on daily chart is still intact.
  4. AUD surprise today, but rate cut options is still on the table.
  5. China has showed no sign of improvement. That's always a red flag to AUD.

  6. GBP Rate hike rumor keeps GBP hawkish.
  7. GBP service number relased today is better than expected.

It's everybody's game although it seemed to me (the PA on 1.9350 level) the GA bull has NOT completely lost control yet.

If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
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