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  • #8,001
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:11am Apr 3, 2015 4:11am
Quoting The Fool
a USD takedown opens the door to April US stock index gains, perhaps finally a decisive breakout above SnP 2,100 up to 2,150 or more....and takes a weight off commodities, especially oil, which shrugged off bearish news re: an Iranian deal in the pipeline in favor of news of slowing production in the US and Canada. Even Gold would catch a bounce.... re: oil, I expect moderate seasonal gains, still looking for wti $60-$65 this Summer
we have to get past 17868 on the DOW and 2078 on SnP before I feel comfortable with moving higher and Russells already ahead
  • #8,002
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:20am Apr 3, 2015 4:20am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} we have to get past 17868 on the DOW and 2078 on SnP before I feel comfortable with moving higher and Russells already ahead
on top the VIX closed negative again yesterday looking at the chart, not making any moves until data comes out the will have to trade the futures market unless I get
  • #8,003
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:20am Apr 3, 2015 5:20am
DOW futures pre sell mode
  • #8,004
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:37am Apr 3, 2015 5:37am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} correction 94.70, yesterdays price action on USD indicates a short term decline in the $ to test that level going into next week
will look the the Dollar to test that FOMC low set 2 weeks ago next week
  • #8,005
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:47am Apr 3, 2015 5:47am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} we have to get past 17868 on the DOW and 2078 on SnP before I feel comfortable with moving higher and Russells already ahead
this ain't gonna happen, when the cash market re=opens next week closes below 17600 I'll be anticipating close to a 1000 point drop over the coming weeks as an earlier post
  • #8,006
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:48am Apr 3, 2015 5:48am
Quoting Cecil Gee
will look the the Dollar to test that FOMC low set 2 weeks ago next week
weaker USD will help most of my book, look for fiber to run towards $1.12 in the next week or 2; crude should bounce, UST's too, US indices, we'll see...yet another roll back on the Fed's ffr hike date, could be bullish for stocks after the dust settles.

Good Luck, Cecil.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,007
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:49am Apr 3, 2015 5:49am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well they took it higher by over 250 points with it possibly coming back down by just as much today and if it does then I'm looking for a 1000 point drop over the coming weeks once we pass 17600 on the DOW
post was from March 31
  • #8,008
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:51am Apr 3, 2015 5:51am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} weaker USD will help most of my book, look for fiber to run towards $1.12 in the next week or 2; crude should bounce, UST's too, US indices, we'll see...yet another roll back on the Fed's ffr hike date, could be bullish for stocks after the dust settles. Good Luck, Cecil.
I saw that crude close yesterday and it did look short term bullish but that market was closed today so did not comment on it earlier
  • #8,009
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:51am Apr 3, 2015 5:51am
Quoting Cecil Gee
I'll be anticipating close to a 1000 point drop over the coming weeks as an earlier post
well, that'd be sweet - I am getting in low risk SPY put calendars and flies to catch that, I'm just not sure it'll happen in April
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,010
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:53am Apr 3, 2015 5:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} weaker USD will help most of my book, look for fiber to run towards $1.12 in the next week or 2; crude should bounce, UST's too, US indices, we'll see...yet another roll back on the Fed's ffr hike date, could be bullish for stocks after the dust settles. Good Luck, Cecil.
think we will see some down pressure for a while but will be bullish by 3rd quarter results
  • #8,011
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:55am Apr 3, 2015 5:55am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} well, that'd be sweet - I am getting in low risk SPY put calendars and flies to catch that, I'm just not sure it'll happen in April
keep an eye on that dollar index to hit 94.70 area then see if we bounce, this should take a week or two
  • #8,012
  • Apr 3, 2015 5:58am Apr 3, 2015 5:58am
/ZB up well, TLT will gap up $1.50 Monday, may see $134+ next week. I have a $140 Apr/Apr4 calendar that needs the help. The Fed will take whatever they can get to push that ffr hike out ... without that fear then we need to see a crummy earnings season open the trap door for US stocks...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,013
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:03am Apr 3, 2015 6:03am
Quoting The Fool
/ZB up well, TLT will gap up $1.50 Monday, may see $134+ next week. I have a $140 Apr/Apr4 calendar that needs the help. The Fed will take whatever they can get to push that ffr hike out ... without that fear then we need to see a crummy earnings season open the trap door for US stocks...
I'm not planning to trade Monday as usually if there is a major gap it could be it may want to fill in at least 50% so better prices will be achieved if we hang on
  • #8,014
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:05am Apr 3, 2015 6:05am
Quoting Cecil Gee
DOW futures pre sell mode
check out that red candle on the Futures
  • #8,015
  • Apr 3, 2015 6:15am Apr 3, 2015 6:15am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} check out that red candle on the Futures
yeah, maybe we can get UST's and US stocks moving in different directions. TLT might gap up $2+ Monday. Maybe we can get some vol back in the markets, hope so.

Have a good weekend, ya'll....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-04-03_zb.png Size: 60 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,016
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:12am Apr 3, 2015 7:12am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah, maybe we can get UST's and US stocks moving in different directions. TLT might gap up $2+ Monday. Maybe we can get some vol back in the markets, hope so. Have a good weekend, ya'll.... {image}
I hope so, also... Catching up on tastytrade videos. This one is one month old, a good one.
Historical versus Implied Volatilities
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,017
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:31am Apr 3, 2015 7:31am
I did some intensive thinking about my own trading... I would try to stick to my new trading plan. Many times I had a credit spread winner in my hands, but I was greedy and didn't take 50% or something like that, and at the end it was a b/e trade or worse. I closed some naked positions for a lost, just because I was afraid - ALL of them was winners later. I would make money on indices scalping and then spend them on some stupid gamma scalps with wrong strikes or something. Money is lost much much easier than made.

Trading plan

I must start selling something on beginning of each month, to fill account with some high(er) probability trades... In that way I would have stuff with 45 DTE, mostly credit spreads, maybe some Iron Condors and short strangles, or individual naked options. CLOSING of such trades must be aggressive, like tastytrade crew does - 50% and they are off. Like AAPL, where short strangle lost 30% of the value in 2 days. Two days - close the mofo. To be in that circle of continuing selling, which then I would combine with occasional directional plays (debit spreads, calendars, diagonals... gamma scalps once a week, IF I am sure). Most of the action should be on SPY and a few of selected stocks that I follow. Lots of free margin is completely unused.

Other than that, I will also do ER's trades, just be much more careful - stay away from expensive wild stocks like NFLX (reverse Iron Condor on that f...)... I am fine with just 10-15 names per cycle. That would be short strangles and some directional plays as well.

Very important part recently in my trading is scalping with CFDs, but I will most probably skip stocks CFDs scalping, because they work only in RTH, and you really MUST now each individual stock in details (sentiment of the crowd, differences between the sectors, valuations, and much more). So, focus is on DAX, SPX and NDX CFDs... Skip Oil also, when I get the f... out of my USO positions, probably just occasional USO CFDs scalping... when a new trend develops, well, here I am.

So,
1) more selling premium, more trades like that opposite to directional plays (that will change WHEN we get a direction, I am tired of guessing the mofo)
2) scalping indices often (every day)
3) be careful on ER's trades, focus on stocks that I already have winners

Yours truly,
StrayDog
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,018
  • Apr 3, 2015 9:22am Apr 3, 2015 9:22am
Quoting StrayDog
I.... I must start selling something on beginning of each month, to fill account with some high(er) probability trades... In that way I would have stuff with 45 DTE...
.... And close them until next month, since there is no point holding it until expiration.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 45DTE-91percent-in-first-27DTE.png Size: 72 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #8,019
  • Apr 3, 2015 10:31am Apr 3, 2015 10:31am
Quoting StrayDog
CLOSING of such trades must be aggressive, like tastytrade crew does - 50% and they are off.
sounds like a plan, SDog. It's always good to step back and look at what you are doing, see how you can improve. I am sure TT traders learned to manage out at 50% (m/l) through experiences just like you have had.

The problems I have had recently have been mostly a result of making directional trades in a non-directional market. These have all been defined-risk trades put on for low debit. So losses have been relatively small, but they have been many lately & they add up. So, in hindsight, some of them look like over-trading. Some were too low-probability. There have been some good trades, too, so although I was down for March, it wasn't that much of a bleed.

More later....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #8,020
  • Apr 4, 2015 10:57am Apr 4, 2015 10:57am
Good article by Chris Ciovacco: How Far Could Stocks Fall Monday?

"It is always possible that bad news gets interpreted as good news if the Fed decides to throw the market a bone or two. To complicate matters for investors and traders, New York Fed President William Dudley is the first Fed speaker of the week when he discusses the economy in Newark Monday morning."

"How will we know when we have reached the "bad news is bad news" point of no return? Answer: When market-friendly comments from the Fed fail to stem market declines. "
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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