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Let's Trade Options

  • #7,981
  • Apr 2, 2015 7:26am Apr 2, 2015 7:26am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} ok, USO has dipped below $17.50 - get the $17 calls for $0.04?...long way down there, not sure I trust USO to move....
Yeah, USO is cheap, it really requires quite a move to get something, like it moved last Friday.

We got better chance with > $100 "products"... like QQQ, SPY, IWM... or individual stocks... well, just blah, blah... I will look for something later, not pushing it now, since I am at work and tired as hell...


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Fck it, for 1,000 posts here, gonna have another coffee, hombre...
Listening to Cypress Hill to wake up...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,982
  • Apr 2, 2015 7:35am Apr 2, 2015 7:35am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yeah, USO is cheap, it really requires quite a move to get something, like it moved last Friday. We got better chance with > $100 "products"... like QQQ, SPY, IWM... or individual stocks... well, just blah, blah... I will look for something later, not pushing it now, since I am at work and tired as hell... ---------------------------------------------------------------- Add-on PAGE 400 AND {image} Fck it, for 1,000 posts here, gonna have another coffee, hombre... Listening to Cypress Hill to wake up...
yeah, nothing real cheap jumping out at me either, hey congrats on 1,000 posts, maybe eventually we get some other traders to chime in here.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,983
  • Apr 2, 2015 7:49am Apr 2, 2015 7:49am
took a shot on USO $17 puts for $0.04, m/l a gamble on a breakthrough out of the Iran talks before the end of the session
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,984
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:34am Apr 2, 2015 8:34am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} yeah, nothing real cheap jumping out at me either, hey congrats on 1,000 posts, maybe eventually we get some other traders to chime in here.....
Nah... you are such a badass ---> nobody has the guts to post here, except few of us (but we are badasses also )

Yeah...
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Seriously people... be free to post...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,985
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:40am Apr 2, 2015 8:40am
Quoting The Fool
took a shot on USO $17 puts for $0.04, m/l a gamble on a breakthrough out of the Iran talks before the end of the session
/CL at $48.90 now... You need a good push down, since USO $17 = /CL $48... a one and a half buck drop should do you very well.

I am just thinking.... wouldn't be surprised to see a push up on indices in final hour, just to lift market before holiday... you know, easier when liquidity is lower, like now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,986
  • Edited 10:23am Apr 2, 2015 10:02am | Edited 10:23am
Quoting The Fool
took a shot on USO $17 puts for $0.04, m/l a gamble on a breakthrough out of the Iran talks before the end of the session
I was looking at the USO $0.40 drop in the latter half of last Friday, thinking maybe we would get something like that today. It is sliding, slowly, but I need to break $17 to make anything on those puts....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,987
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:06am Apr 2, 2015 10:06am
Quoting The Fool
No time to trade today. No trades = no money lost. WA lotto today is $6.5 million......
I didn't win the lotto, but I got 4/6 for $30, so I made $5, not a total failure....yeah, put that on my stone. Glad to get March behind me - a losing month, lots of little cuts bled me...trying to get set up for that decisive directional move (that never happens) and also trying to sell more premium, if I can find it...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,988
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:07am Apr 2, 2015 10:07am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} wasn't filling, trying symmetrical Sep $190/$185/$180 puts for $0.16, best liquidity on those strikes I spec....
$0.01-0.02 off on this, it'll be there later....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,989
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:12am Apr 2, 2015 10:12am
Quoting The Fool
...trying to get set up for that decisive directional move (that never happens) and also trying to sell more premium, if I can find it...
Yeah, just boring PA ---> no move to be directional, slim premiums to sell...
Just love these days, when indices are flat, or slightly negative and VIX is down...
Yup.

Caught some movements yesterday on DAX... didn't pull the trigger today.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,990
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:22am Apr 2, 2015 10:22am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I was looking at he USO $0.40 drop in the latter half of last Friday, thinking maybe we would get something like that today. It is sliding, slowly, but I need to break $17 to make anything on those puts....
I have a $0.12 GTC set on this & it is half way there, USO @ $17.22 now, c'mon now, TF needs new shoes. I might bump $0.12 up a little
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,991
  • Apr 2, 2015 11:06am Apr 2, 2015 11:06am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have a $0.12 GTC set on this & it is half way there, USO @ $17.22 now, c'mon now, TF needs new shoes. I might bump $0.12 up a little
Yihaaaa... what a bumpy ride... Iran this, Iran that, blah, blah all over.... Ups, I meant tweet this, tweet that...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,992
  • Apr 2, 2015 11:29am Apr 2, 2015 11:29am
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Yihaaaa... what a bumpy ride... Iran this, Iran that, blah, blah all over.... Ups, I meant tweet this, tweet that...
yah maybe I missed the boat, shoulda took $0.07 when I saw it - small trade, tho, I need around that just to b/e past the comms.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,993
  • Apr 2, 2015 12:15pm Apr 2, 2015 12:15pm
well, so much for short oil. I gotta go up a creek, have a Happy Easter, all.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,994
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:23pm Apr 2, 2015 9:23pm
maybe a weak NFP is fiber's northbound ticket to $1.11? If we can see something like that by this time next week, my FXE $109 call calendar could score a perfect finish.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,995
  • Edited 10:58pm Apr 2, 2015 9:31pm | Edited 10:58pm
weak US econ data keeps the Fed boogey man at bay with his big bad 25 bp ffr hike and, so long as it's not too bad, will help the em's, EWZ $34 call calendar has 2 weeks to go, is near the sweet spot now....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,996
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:53pm Apr 2, 2015 9:53pm
long dated bfly is a great lazy man's trade....sell in May, go away?....huge profit potential at the sweet strikes at expiry,...but....what I like is the huge safe range at intermediate expiries - the Sept dbl bfly below is in profit between SPY $206 and $153 at the July expiry....a >500 pt range on the SnP...and your risk is just the initial debit.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,997
  • Apr 3, 2015 3:38am Apr 3, 2015 3:38am
Quoting The Fool
maybe a weak NFP is fiber's northbound ticket to $1.11?
Sure, NFP to follow ADP and undershoot, say 225k...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,998
  • Apr 3, 2015 3:45am Apr 3, 2015 3:45am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Sure, NFP to follow ADP and undershoot, say 225k...
not only that we are still in the last FOMC CANDLE RANGE FROM TOP TO BOTTOM, almost over 2 weeks, a lower print could see an attack on the cash USD to 96.64 breaking the 50 day in the process next week
  • #7,999
  • Apr 3, 2015 3:53am Apr 3, 2015 3:53am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} not only that we are still in the last FOMC CANDLE RANGE FROM TOP TO BOTTOM, almost over 2 weeks, a lower print could see an attack on the cash USD to 96.64 breaking the 50 day in the process next week
correction 94.70, yesterdays price action on USD indicates a short term decline in the $ to test that level going into next week
  • #8,000
  • Apr 3, 2015 4:04am Apr 3, 2015 4:04am
a USD takedown opens the door to April US stock index gains, perhaps finally a decisive breakout above SnP 2,100 up to 2,150 or more....and takes a weight off commodities, especially oil, which shrugged off bearish news re: an Iranian deal in the pipeline in favor of news of slowing production in the US and Canada. Even Gold would catch a bounce....

re: oil, I expect moderate seasonal gains, still looking for wti $60-$65 this Summer
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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