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Oil and Natural Gas

  • #1,261
  • Apr 1, 2015 9:28am Apr 1, 2015 9:28am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Obviously you don't. Only Congress can approve or disapprove a treaty. Who the f... cares what any other country does. Germany and France have been known in the past to get around U.N. sanctions. And the reason why Iran wants the U.S. sanctions in particular lifted is because our sanctions are also against ANY company (U.S. based or any where else in the world) dealing with Iran. Big dogs can do that. Either way it won't effect crude up or down except for a few days.
Obama has signed at least 3 executive orders since 2011 regarding sanctions on iran…… congress means dick! US is practically a police state with a dictator…
  • #1,262
  • Apr 1, 2015 9:55am Apr 1, 2015 9:55am
Bomb shell on the storage, if this cracks 54, i think the bears are possibly done!
  • #1,263
  • Apr 1, 2015 10:01am Apr 1, 2015 10:01am
Doubtful since its the largest record inventory ever……
  • #1,264
  • Apr 1, 2015 10:02am Apr 1, 2015 10:02am
Why it is going up? No reason, totally B.S.? Maybe it will go to 46 at the end of the session or where?
  • #1,265
  • Apr 1, 2015 10:11am Apr 1, 2015 10:11am
its up and i expect a new top but nothing huge. Metals are more attracting atm, butt on long term im getting even more optimistic about crude.
  • #1,266
  • Apr 1, 2015 8:36pm Apr 1, 2015 8:36pm
Quoting erdogac
Why it is going up? No reason, totally B.S.? Maybe it will go to 46 at the end of the session or where?
Expectations of inventories have been blasted past estimates and this was the first one in a while that was pretty close, potential indication that enough rigs are down for the price to float higher……But the reality is an all new time record inventory in over 100 years and a fledgling world economy…… sadly a whole lot of company shut down, war, distribution disruption, petrodollar collapse or new innovation is the only thing it appears that will turn this around…… so it seems……
  • #1,267
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:53am Apr 2, 2015 8:53am
It's anyones guess wtf is going on with oil today……
  • #1,268
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:05am Apr 2, 2015 9:05am
A 61.8% ret is all that happened:
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  • #1,269
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:13am Apr 2, 2015 9:13am
Quoting DaTokyoHustl
It's anyones guess wtf is going on with oil today
up up up imo, its normal that we get strong resistance on 50.
  • #1,270
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:22am Apr 2, 2015 9:22am
May finish lower but at the moment the dollar is starting to strengthen intraday.
  • #1,271
  • Apr 4, 2015 12:04pm Apr 4, 2015 12:04pm
Ok folks, i think it's time to put on the scalpers cap on monday, i'm expecting some extreme volatility based friday's shi tty job report and the Iranian nuke deal……

Any insight from anyone?
  • #1,272
  • Apr 4, 2015 12:13pm Apr 4, 2015 12:13pm
I honestly hate scalping, but $3-$4 ranges can be incredibly profitable, tight SL misses sometimes dig the profit margins, thus i hate scalping……

Crack out the bollinger band, nice to have a big bag of tricks……
  • #1,273
  • Apr 4, 2015 12:20pm Apr 4, 2015 12:20pm
Oil is going to 35- 32 dollars a barrell. It might go as high as 54, but will eventually go down to the 30's. Mark my words.
  • #1,274
  • Apr 4, 2015 2:40pm Apr 4, 2015 2:40pm
I think the day can start with a gap up anyway on weak usd. But uk oil is is another story.

The major issue about iranian deal is not oil or the nuclear stuff imo. Europe needs gas and Iran will be an alternative for russian gas, this is a very critical issue for EU. Did short some NG right after jump on very low stock numbers. Think its worth taking a shot but still never know when putin wants fun. Also wonder wth usd/rub looks
like

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  • #1,275
  • Apr 4, 2015 3:25pm Apr 4, 2015 3:25pm
Iran is years away from moving any substantial amount of crude or nat gas - if they comply (and continue to comply) with the agreement.

An agreement that hasn't even been finalized yet.
  • #1,276
  • Apr 4, 2015 6:53pm Apr 4, 2015 6:53pm
Quoting SunTrader
Iran is years away from moving any substantial amount of crude or nat gas - if they comply (and continue to comply) with the agreement. An agreement that hasn't even been finalized yet.
No, but it sure did and will move the price!
  • #1,277
  • Apr 4, 2015 7:32pm Apr 4, 2015 7:32pm
Quoting DaTokyoHustl
{quote} No, but it sure did and will move the price!
Ok as long as you are so sure "I'll bet the ranch".

Will.
  • #1,278
  • Apr 5, 2015 8:05am Apr 5, 2015 8:05am
Quoting SunTrader
Iran is years away from moving any substantial amount of crude or nat gas - if they comply (and continue to comply) with the agreement. An agreement that hasn't even been finalized yet.
Im no expert on pipelines but im pretty sure that they can connect to EU through Turkey without much work. This is not matter of fun for EU, i remember the talks right up to oil and ruble crash, and all this redesign in eastern EU and ME. Either EU accept being dominated by Russia or allow someone else they don't like to make some $.
Greece is also very central here and that rockstar minister knows all about this

Energy is like water for countries. Oil and gas is also cheap like water for now, but when water is not around the damage it makes in $ is much more expensive than the price of water itself.

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  • #1,279
  • Apr 5, 2015 11:26am Apr 5, 2015 11:26am
Quoting alayinizAMK
{quote} Im no expert on pipelines but im pretty sure that they can connect to EU through Turkey without much work...
Transporting it is the easy part. Getting it out of the ground is not.

Here is a bit from a newsletter I get that explains it better than I could:

"A group of exhausted diplomats did the unthinkable. The P5+1 countries and Iran came to a massive and historic framework agreement over Irans nuclear program, paving the way for a final deal to be hashed out before the real deadline in June. Negotiations went past the self-imposed March 31 deadline and despite sinking optimism on April 1, all parties managed to overcome enough of their differences to hammer out the outlines of a deal. Irans ability to build a nuclear weapon will be hampered, and crucially for oil markets, Iran is within reach of receiving relief from western sanctions.

It is unclear how quickly Iran will be able to ratchet up its oil production, however, even if a deal is forged. Reviving some of its battered oil fields will require international investment. To be sure, Iran is an enormous prize for the oil majors, but there will likely be a lag between sanctions relief and actual investment. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has courted foreign oil companies, but even if sanctions are removed, oil companies will think twice before they jump in. Thats because the U.S. insists on a mechanism of having sanctions snap back into place if Iran does not live up to its side of the deal. For oil companies thinking about pouring billions of dollars into a country, the possibility that sanctions will snap back presents enormous risk. After only recently having seen what happens when international sanctions are brought down like a hammer ExxonMobil had to pullout of a major drilling project in Russia last year because of sanctions the industry will take its time. Consequently, despite the historic agreement a very important development indeed the flood of Iranian oil will likely take quite a bit of time before it begins flowing."
  • #1,280
  • Apr 5, 2015 11:32am Apr 5, 2015 11:32am
Quoting SunTrader
I do the reverse. Full in, take off as its goes - whether in my favor or not. And of course full exit if it goes completely against me. So I never add to a loser.
You apparently bet the ranch with every trade anyways……So what say you? Are you bull or bear off the guns this week or still involved in a contract? My last short was @ 51.5 way back… thinking about scalping this week since the news was mixed signals, like last week wouldve been a scalpers wet dream……I may close my lowest contract to go bull off the start line, catch a new high and ride the wave……
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