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Why 2-8% a Month Should Be Enough For All Traders

  • #21
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:18am Apr 2, 2015 8:18am
You are a man with a plan, that's good. Not looking too much short term, that's good too.
You are good, 2x

Good luck on your journey and I hope you will succeed !

You are welcome!
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #22
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:30am Apr 2, 2015 8:30am
Quoting XXiXX
{quote} you have no idea about my experience and work hours I have given to this market and this is not just opinion which I am giving its proven fact from the day market has started. looks like you are a newbie and want to believe there is a way to trade but you will soon find out.
I'm sorry if I offended you in any way. You are definitely entitled to your opinion and experience. I posted on your thread a couple times with some friendly suggestions just as many have done on my thread here.

I do feel you've gotten very defensive which is not necessary.

I saw what you posted here....

"Also I would like to add that this is just not my opinion but this is my experience and also confirmed by my friend who is not just into trading but he is the one who provides high-end technology to brokers, he runs a company and they provide different plugins to brokers, he clearly told me there is no way for a retailer to survive for a very long time, yeah you can go slow but again at the end of the month you need money to pay bills.

Only people with HUGE capital and unlimited money supply can trade small and still make enough to survive, anything below 200,000 is not considered big enough for this market to survive solely on trading."

Just because your friend said it can't be done doesn't mean it truly can't. If a the so called "retailer" can't make it long term then what are we all doing here? Are you saying we need treat forex like a casino unless we have $200k to invest?
  • #23
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:31am Apr 2, 2015 8:31am
If I may chime in. Many people have spoken about the "black swan" event which of course should be the overall fear of every trader. Yet, simply looking at the probability of it happening to a scalper or a swing trader tilts much more against the swing trader/investor as they are exposed to the market for a great period of time. I have noticed some pessimistic traders here, but that type of mentality is normal when one has failed at something.
Everything in life has a "counter". Especially in forex.
  • #24
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:48am Apr 2, 2015 8:48am
Quoting XXiXX
{quote} you have no idea about my experience and work hours I have given to this market and this is not just opinion which I am giving its proven fact from the day market has started. looks like you are a newbie and want to believe there is a way to trade but you will soon find out.
Well, you can have 10 years of experience and still fail. If there is one thing you should already learnt with your experience by now, it is that working hours and time length of experience don't matter. Your degree doesn't correlate well with your success in trading. Less so is age.

You sound like that senior in high school who wants to claim superiority by being more senior.
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #25
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:49am Apr 2, 2015 8:49am
Quoting XXiXX
{quote} you have no idea about my experience and work hours I have given to this market and this is not just opinion which I am giving its proven fact from the day market has started. looks like you are a newbie and want to believe there is a way to trade but you will soon find out.
You should move on and let Cubbybgood do his thing. It's obvious you lack experience and should not starting arguing to the person who started the thread just because you have not found a way top trade profitably.

Best of luck with your trading.
  • #26
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:49am Apr 2, 2015 8:49am
Cubby,

Why don't you share the overall strategy that the EA use, like when and why it open buys and sells, etc.
It would be interesting to know it, so we can understand more about the way the strategy work and can give some inputs, test it, etc.

Perhaps even suggest improvements!

Otherwise we would be here talking about what is what without knowing what we are talking about.
  • #27
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:50am Apr 2, 2015 8:50am
Quoting PaulJames
If I may chime in. Many people have spoken about the "black swan" event which of course should be the overall fear of every trader. Yet, simply looking at the probability of it happening to a scalper or a swing trader tilts much more against the swing trader/investor as they are exposed to the market for a great period of time. I have noticed some pessimistic traders here, but that type of mentality is normal when one has failed at something.
So it sounds like you're saying scalping is the only way to succeed as a trader?
  • #28
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:58am Apr 2, 2015 8:58am
Quoting PaulJames
If I may chime in. Many people have spoken about the "black swan" event which of course should be the overall fear of every trader. Yet, simply looking at the probability of it happening to a scalper or a swing trader tilts much more against the swing trader/investor as they are exposed to the market for a great period of time. I have noticed some pessimistic traders here, but that type of mentality is normal when one has failed at something.
and amazingly such events happens very often those who are trading from long time knows it.

I am glad you pointed out this. imagine you are exposed to market and stupid NFP comes up down or some banker says some thing unexpected, belive me that can bring disaster to account and the hard work of months and years can vanish in few seconds.

Quoting Cubbybgood
{quote}. If a the so called "retailer" can't make it long term then what are we all doing here? Are you saying we need treat forex like a casino unless we have $200k to invest?
This is exactly what I am saying....... you phrased it completely correct.
Never chase the market
  • #29
  • Apr 2, 2015 8:58am Apr 2, 2015 8:58am
Quoting Cubbybgood
{quote} So it sounds like you're saying scalping is the only way to succeed as a trader?
I believe it to be yes. Only reason why, is because scalpers typically trade price action, instead of data. So many people right now on the EUR/USD thread are saying that this move up on EUR/USD is a "pump" before the "dump" tomorrow. A phrases used in stocks. Yet, not all the times you see a move up prior to high impact news does it mean it will reverse once the news is released. Please refer to the last FOMC statement. The one which caused EU to spike 400 pips north. I believe EU spiked 150 pips up prior to the news.
All in all, I am sure swing trading CAN make profit, but swing traders tend to ignore price action (The low of extension vs extension termination) which of course leads to red positions which takes days or months to break even. Cubbybgood what is your take on swing traders vs scalpers?
Everything in life has a "counter". Especially in forex.
  • #30
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:04am Apr 2, 2015 9:04am
Quoting spaceduck
Cubby, Why don't you share the overall strategy that the EA use, like when and why it open buys and sells, etc. It would be interesting to know it, so we can understand more about the way the strategy work and can give some inputs, test it, etc. Perhaps even suggest improvements! Otherwise we would be here talking about what is what without knowing what we are talking about.
Sharing the strategy was not my intention of the thread although it's very tempting. It's difficult to give something away when you've spend years developing it.

The thread was intended for sharing and talking about...
1. How to turn a losing trade into a profitable one.
2. Why 2-8% per month could be smarter then 100%
3. Why backtest data is useful and why it matters.
4. What is realistic trading
5. How much profit is enough each month?

These are just a few things I wanted to have a conversation about during the course of this thread.
  • #31
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:23am Apr 2, 2015 9:23am
Quoting XXiXX
{quote} and amazingly such events happens very often those who are trading from long time knows it. I am glad you pointed out this. imagine you are exposed to market and stupid NFP comes up down or some banker says some thing unexpected, belive me that can bring disaster to account and the hard work of months and years can vanish in few seconds. {quote} This is exactly what I am saying....... you phrased it completely correct.
Honestly your odds at say roulette or probably just as good or better then scalping the market. I was a professional roulette player for 2 years and would make $400-$600 a week. Over those 2 years I got so close to losing my entire bankroll of $5k. A few times I thought i was going to have a heart attack because I was really down to my last spin. I realized that it was only a matter of time before the casino got me so I stopped playing all together. Also, the stress was killing me knowing I was likely going to lose my $5k some time. I stopped before that happened but still... this is how I see scalping. If scalping is used with more then $100 it's difficult to find it worth it as the risk of big losses is to high.

1. Start with $100
2. Grow $100 into $200.
3. Withdraw your original $100
4. Grow $100 again to $200 then $200 into 400 and so on and so forth.

So scalping can work but it's frigin scary with larger accounts unless you've taken out the original deposit and you have no risk. It still completely sucks to lose a $2k account that you grew from $100 though. I saw a person do this. I watch as he crashed an burned. He made over 2000% on his $100 in just 6 weeks just to blow it. It was very sad to see.
  • #32
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:41am Apr 2, 2015 9:41am
Quoting cherader
{quote} Well of course, if you keep listening to the 90% who fails, there is no way you're going to succeed in this business. If you can't do it, don't tell others that they can't.
Well said.
Never Ever Give Up!
  • #33
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:53am Apr 2, 2015 9:53am
Quoting XXiXX
Quoting Cubbybgood
If a the so called "retailer" can't make it long term then what are we all doing here? Are you saying we need treat forex like a casino unless we have $200k to invest? {quote}

This is exactly what I am saying....... you phrased it completely correct.

But but but, there is just this guy here who turned 50K into 2,5 million!!! that proves you are wrong...

http://www.forexfactory.com/welliott#53
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #34
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:03am Apr 2, 2015 10:03am
imagine your total asset... 100.000, with life insurance, etc
imagine a 1000 equity, get 1000 profit
although we get 100% profit, our total asset only get 1% increase

now, if our asset are in usd
and we short usd,
usd move south, about 0.1% ,, we need to get 10% profit to break even
  • #35
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:04am Apr 2, 2015 10:04am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} But but but, there is just this guy here who turned 50K into 2,5 million!!! that proves you are wrong... http://www.forexfactory.com/welliott#53
Never chase the market
  • #36
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:04am Apr 2, 2015 10:04am
Quoting PaulJames
{quote} I believe it to be yes. Only reason why, is because scalpers typically trade price action, instead of data. So many people right now on the EUR/USD thread are saying that this move up on EUR/USD is a "pump" before the "dump" tomorrow. A phrases used in stocks. Yet, not all the times you see a move up prior to high impact news does it mean it will reverse once the news is released. Please refer to the last FOMC statement. The one which caused EU to spike 400 pips north. I believe EU spiked 150 pips up prior to the news. All in all, I am sure...
To each there own. I think scalping is a much harder life because you're in and out of trades quickly. It's so stressful. I did it for a long while and I couldn't pull away from my screen when trades were in. It was not the life I wanted. Swing trading is much easier to me long and short term as it's easier to find tops and bottoms. Like I said before...even trying to profit 1 pip can be difficult because the market can go against us 100-200 pips right from the start before it comes back...that is if it ever does.

I took my scalps using the min time frame all the way up to the 4 hour and only traded with the trend on all time frames. I was taking only 1 trade a day looking for just 10 pips and I still eventually lost.

Many scalping Technics work. Mine was maybe no the best one out there. I've seen many live successful scalping accounts. Most of them are EA's though as I think it is stressful for the trader.
  • #37
  • Apr 2, 2015 10:12am Apr 2, 2015 10:12am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} But but but, there is just this guy here who turned 50K into 2,5 million!!! that proves you are wrong... http://www.forexfactory.com/welliott#53
Yes, some impressive stuff out there...

It can be done but some good skill and luck a definitely involved.

Take a look at what this person did.

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Cath...ne-hft/1150802

It's like they won the lottery. lol
  • #38
  • Apr 2, 2015 9:11pm Apr 2, 2015 9:11pm
Quoting Cubbybgood
{quote} Yes, some impressive stuff out there... It can be done but some good skill and luck a definitely involved. Take a look at what this person did. http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Cath...ne-hft/1150802 It's like they won the lottery. lol
Hi!

Yes, that person had what some would call a good month! LOL!

In general though, I think your thread title is more realistic if you want to be in this long term, with high capital.
I confess a love of scalping, but I'm under no illusions. I only do it on smaller accounts and I know it is too dangerous to risk on main to get regular income.

Have a look at this guy:
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXVi...account/616112

His results won't make headlines or win a competition. But he manages money, and has consistently delivered, in the ranges that you are talking about.
Overall I think this is the right approach if you intend to live from trading. Of course, you need a certain capital amount.

All too often we see equity curves with excellent performance, followed by a devastating loss. Most likely due to unrealistic expectations and reliance on trading falsehoods.
If you have a spare hour and a bit, I highly recommend this video:
Inserted Video


I don't totally agree with his conclusions, but he highlights some excellent points regarding what is held as fact in Forex.

All the best
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #39
  • Edited 7:32am Apr 3, 2015 7:21am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting trader34
{quote} Hi! Yes, that person had what some would call a good month! LOL! In general though, I think your thread title is more realistic if you want to be in this long term, with high capital. I confess a love of scalping, but I'm under no illusions. I only do it on smaller accounts and I know it is too dangerous to risk on main to get regular income. Have a look at this guy: http://www.myfxbook.com/members/FXVi...account/616112 His results won't make headlines or win a competition. But he manages money, and...

I to agree with a fee points he said but completely disagree on others. I do not think the forex can be predicted because there are to many trading strategies out there be used. Everybody is buying and selling at different times using all sorts of strategies. For example...If a big bank executes a massive buy order on the EU the value of the euro will go up causing the pair as a whole to move upward. Usually this happens on news or 00 levels. This is why we get such large spikes in price because everybody happens to be just buying or just selling at the same time. We get trends because the majority of traders are holding on to ether they're buys or sells. When are is that majority going to let go of there positions? We don't really know but it's likely going to be at a 00 level. It seems with this being said that we can predict the market but in the end we never really know what the majority of traders or banks with the big money are doing.

This is another big reason I created my system/EA. I knew it was impossible to predict what everyone was doing. I needed a system that could be traded profitably in any market. I felt range trading was my best bet. Even though I can't always get the top or bottom of the move my system is forgiving and gives me almost endless chances. A trend can only go on for so long before it reverses. Luckily my EA does a great job at finding near the top and bottom of most trends or ranges which is why it was able to make it through 21 years of back history. Also I've done extensive testing and found that the EURGBP has the best ranges of any pair for this trading methodology.
  • #40
  • Apr 3, 2015 7:30am Apr 3, 2015 7:30am
Although it's not the indicator I use now...I started out using this strategy with a cci 14 with levels -300/300. Each time the market hit the -300/300 level I would enter a position. If I was wrong I would wait for the next -300/300 level hit. If a reverse happened on my 2nd trade and I was looking for 10 total pips my 2 trades would have looked like this. -50 pips + 60 pips = +10 pips if they were closed at the same exact time.

I've moved on from the cci as I've found much better custom indicators that give better entry's.
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