Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

Hi Mr. Alfonso and mates

i havea long set up in a fresh demmand zone

Weekly and daily are in a up trend.

Sorry but we're not doing any kind of intraday or scalping in this forum my friend, just H4, D1 and above timeframes.
Cheers,
Alfonso

EUR/USD aggressive descending TL after 3 consecutive 3 CPs of supply have been solidly broken creating a brand new D1 DZ as per the rules.

Price is now at a tested D1 SZ, 1 DZ CP has been taken out (similar on other US cross pairs and US Index). Descending WK TL is holding and WK SZ is a bit higher.

Bigger picture bias is shorts.

Hello Alfonso ,

Is these demand levels is valid on 4 hr chart all of them is fresh and original , daily have broken and align with weekly ,weekly is up

Thanks in advance

If you were subscribed to previous webinars, you should have received it Maybe email reached your spam folder for some reason, add @set-and-forget.com as a safe address or that could happen in the future. I've recorded it, will be posting it in a while so you can watch it, sorry you couldn't make it live

Cheers,
Alfonso

On today's webinar we went again through the basics of supply and demand's core rules from the 1st post and www.set-and-forget.com supply and demand trading community. The Realignment/Sequence rules are at the core of the rules set.

Thanks a lot to Jan (JJ) to volunteer and ask questions and volunteering to talk live instead of just asking questions in the chat box. You did a great job my friend!

We analyzed a bunch of few instruments in a lot of detail:

1. DOLLAR INDEX, strong bullish trend, MN SZ in control, too high in the curve, counter-trend shorts can happen, in fact already happening
2. USD/HUF, strong bullish trend but compression to the left and weak WK DZ, some counter-trends can happen, moreover if tested WK DZ is taken out
3. EUR/NZD, bigger picture downtrend, MN, WK and D1 are down.
4. USD/CAD. Bullish trend but D1 compression to the left and MN SZ in control, bullish over-extension similar to US Index which could allow some counter-trend shorts to happen
5. USD/CHF. Short bias, price hit strong supply supply where a few weeks ago the Swiss National Bank decided to change CHF interest rates and caused the bankrupt of many traders, and some brokers included

Things we always need to have in mind and take into account, we covered this in today's webinar

1. Defining the trend is crucial, it will determine which is your bias. We have to pay very close attention to it
2. We only use trendlines and rectangles to assess trend and draw supply and demand imbalances, no need of any fancy indicators
3. How to mechanically define a trend using supply and demand imbalances
4. A bigger timeframe normally wins over a smaller timeframe. A low odds Monthly demand zone makes lower timeframes than the Monthly low odds as well
5. A level of demand is valid IF A) it removes an opposing zone and/or B) it breaks a trendline in the timeframe you are looking at C) It has no opposing area to take out and 3:1 or more profit margin
6. How the curve is defined. Continuation patterns are not used to measure the curve if against the trend
7. Flip zones and bigger timeframe trendline confluences, don't go against them
8. Using 3 months supply and demand imbalances help to make a decision on Monthly imbalances

Have a great day! All the best!
Alfonso

not a problem. actually i was curious. for the time being i'll go through this thread and when i get better understand of things i'll try to post to get ur opinions. m going through more of ur videos over n over again to clearly learn before i shoot more questions....and thank you for this great contribution of ur knowledge..

Update on Dollar Index after yesterday's webinar.

Looks like the US Index does not want to continue dropping in the short term, spiked up and retracing to continue the previous trend, uptrend.
This is causing the US cross pairs to do a similar thing, allowing the majors to drop even more, and providing opportunities to short on pairs like EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, etc

Cheers,
Alfonso

Triggered short on Weekly supply imbalance on EUR/GBP. On my Daily account I drew both levels on top of levels, but on my Weekly account I just went for the closest valid level, the WK TL is not yet broken so the entry is valid. Aggressive TL because we have 3 CPs

Short bias, longs not allowed at all, so looking for the best opportunities to short on D1 and H4 is the best way to go.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

GBP/NZD has a Monthly uptrend. Weekly lost alignment and we temporarily had a Weekly downtrend.

A new Weekly demand zone was created after the Weekly descending trendline was solidly broken, new demand imbalance created as per the rules when trendline breaks.
Since the Monthly timeframe is up, the brand new Weekly demand zone is a set and forget long.

Long bias since Monthly and Weekly demand zones are in control

supply euro MN

Potential Monthly supply IF it consolidates away for 1 candle. The top yellow one is valid supply as welll because it removed MN DZ lower


Bias is shorts on the EURO, longs out of the equiation
Cheers

red circle - is this CP?

Yes, some of the candlesticks within the red circle belong to a Continuation Pattern, a weekly supply zone nested within a monthly supply imbalance.

Cheers,
Alfonso

Ok, thank you.

So this must be also CP on daily?

Yes a CP of supply on the daily for the eurusd chart. Invalid CP of supply because the descending TL had been broken after drawing it aggressively because there were 3 consecutove CPs, as the rules dictate.

Cheers,
Alfonso

AUD/NZD fell short of hitting D1 SZ for a short after printing all time lows again, it seems like dropping from the D1 TL reaction. WK potential CP supply has been formed. More shorts could happen if it breaks lower below all time lows.

Bias is clearly shorts, all bigger timeframes down and breaking lower below all time lows. If shorts fail, who cares? I mean, it's what we must do, taking shorts, if it fails to work, next one!

Cheers,
Alfonso

Alfonso, Is it possible for you to analyse USD/CAD again? Last time, after you have done this video on March 26, USD/CAD took the opposite direction and took out Supply Zone (on Daily chart) by itself. So, I believe the entire view has been changed.

Hi Alfonso,

I just watched you last webinar and have a question about the Weekly USDCAD.

Why is the zone between 1 & 2 not a valid one? I cannot seem to find any arguments against it being valid.

Thanks,
Boris
https://charts.mql5.com/7/446/usdcad...karoll-jsc.png

Boris, zones 1 and 2 removed opposing supply zones to the left, as per the rules

See the screenshot below so you can see what I mean, you have to look left and see what each demand zone has attached. A demand zone is valid if it takes out opposing supply zone or it breaks a trendline.

Hope it makes sense
Cheers,
Alfonso