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Let's Trade Options

  • #7,941
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:40am Mar 31, 2015 5:40am
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} well they took it higher by over 250 points with it possibly coming back down by just as much today and if it does then I'm looking for a 1000 point drop over the coming weeks once we pass 17600 on the DOW
good to be a scalper with all these big candles, just need to be on the right side - flip a coin?

SPY quarterlies close today, then just 2 more days to trade this week, exchanges closed for Good Friday...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,942
  • Mar 31, 2015 9:01am Mar 31, 2015 9:01am
Something very strange is happening currently with UVXY... seems like trading is halted for the second time, some weird spikes on it...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,943
  • Mar 31, 2015 9:38am Mar 31, 2015 9:38am
I saw on dough that one guy did a short strangle on AAPL, he said it was a pre-earnings play, but he chose Apr 24 strikes... and AAPL is announced for Apr 22.

But I like the idea, so maybe this is a better play, with Apr strikes on one standard deviation:


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AAPL-SS.PNG Size: 509 KB
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,944
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:00am Mar 31, 2015 10:00am
Quoting StrayDog
Two analysts, Slim from tastytrade and one guy I know both predict a 14-17% or more correction starting from second half of April... .... blah, blah....
Yet on many places one can read that April is seasonally the best month, like for Dow... best month in last 50 yrs... Cashin says: Easter's upward bias

Earnings season going to kick in very soon, expectation are low, like "it is going to be a poor season", blah, blah...

Really, listening to talking heads produce nothing, better to use time on watching cartoons... or porn.

It seems to me that market is tired, and yet there are always the BTFD crowd sooner than I expect. (Bias is a bitch, I know)
At the end, it all comes to cheap money and no yield to find elsewhere.

Well at least DAX is moving around...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,945
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:37am Mar 31, 2015 10:37am
Looking at /CL options... I checked permission to trade futures options, to see premium there...

So, I am looking at puts and calls $8 OTM.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CL_options.PNG Size: 12 KB


So, basically equidistant puts are 2x the calls, understandable...

Multiplier is 1,000 just like for the futures, meaning that May 40 put with 45 DTE is $250... (0.25)
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,946
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:13am Mar 31, 2015 11:13am
Quoting The Fool
/ZB sliding in Asian Monday, TLT will be gapped down a buck @ NY open, I am looking for a hefty slide for the week, at least $4, so will look at weekly bear put verticals and selling call verticals to fund
nope.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,947
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:31am Mar 31, 2015 11:31am
had a Mar5/Apr1 SPY $208/$209 short call vertical, entered for $0.24 credit, got out at $0.05 debit, glad to be out for some profit - I don't trust SPY not to jet up >$208 b4 the close. SPY 5m candles trying to decide up or down at $207.50

The Mar5 $208 calls are $0.06....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,948
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:34am Mar 31, 2015 11:34am
Quoting StrayDog
I saw on dough that one guy did a short strangle on AAPL, he said it was a pre-earnings play, but he chose Apr 24 strikes... and AAPL is announced for Apr 22. But I like the idea, so maybe this is a better play, with Apr strikes on one standard deviation:
So, he's looking for relative consolidation and to harvest a IV ramp-up.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,949
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:57am Mar 31, 2015 11:57am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} So, he's looking for relative consolidation and to harvest a IV ramp-up.
He is looking for time decay because of relative high IVR now... I was thinking to sell one strangle prior to earnings, collect credit with time decay, and then sell another one for the ER's itself. Anyways, I tried to fill the above Apr 118/132 short strangle for $1.01 CR and failed... didn't pay attention to it, I could fill it for $1.00...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,950
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:58am Mar 31, 2015 11:58am
Quoting The Fool
had a Mar5/Apr1 SPY $208/$209 short call vertical, entered for $0.24 credit, got out at $0.05 debit, glad to be out for some profit ....
Good one... not so easy to capitalize on directional trades these days...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,951
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:08pm Mar 31, 2015 12:08pm
Quoting The Fool
The Mar5 $208 calls are $0.06....
I bought some for $0.02! I tole you I'm loco, ese!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,952
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:11pm Mar 31, 2015 12:11pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I bought some for $0.02! I tole you I'm loco, ese!
lol, right b4 it broke down $0.30+
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,953
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:25pm Mar 31, 2015 12:25pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I bought some for $0.02! I tole you I'm loco, ese!
Inserted Video


Hombre , estás loco, mi amigo...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,954
  • Mar 31, 2015 12:35pm Mar 31, 2015 12:35pm
If I just set aside $50 a week to play the lotto, I will prolly come out ahead in the long run...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,955
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:00pm Mar 31, 2015 1:00pm
Quoting StrayDog
Anyways, I tried to fill the above Apr 118/132 short strangle for $1.01 CR and failed... didn't pay attention to it, I could fill it for $1.00...
Lowered the strikes for one buck... entered AAPL Apr 117/131 short strangle for $1.04 credit.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,956
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:59pm Mar 31, 2015 1:59pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} Good one... not so easy to capitalize on directional trades these days...
no lie, I should have been selling otm SPY puts and calls for the last few months while it has been bouncing around $200-$210. Instead all of my cheap long calendars set up to catch breakouts are dying on the vine. Of course, the day I give up on those, the breakout will occur....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,957
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:18pm Mar 31, 2015 5:18pm
Quoting StrayDog
Looking at /CL options... I checked permission to trade futures options, to see premium there... So, I am looking at puts and calls $8 OTM. {image} So, basically equidistant puts are 2x the calls, understandable... Multiplier is 1,000 just like for the futures, meaning that May 40 put with 45 DTE is $250... (0.25)
crude futures trade anywhere near 47.10 then i'm selling at that level for a test down to 42,57 area with stop los at 48.20
  • #7,958
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:20pm Mar 31, 2015 5:20pm
waiting for china data for initial action then crude inventory NY time later
  • #7,959
  • Mar 31, 2015 5:39pm Mar 31, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} crude futures trade anywhere near 47.10 then i'm selling at that level for a test down to 42,57 area with stop los at 48.20
crude futures low is 47.16, will wait for china manufacturing data if bad will short crude on a little pullback
  • #7,960
  • Mar 31, 2015 9:20pm Mar 31, 2015 9:20pm
looking at stacks of losing trades in all accounts, spread thin and not able to spend much time planning trades, have thought about closing down for some months, go back to the drawing board or forget about it altogether. Not enough reward for all the time spent, and Life is short, getting shorter every day. But.......that might be a mistake: might be some easy good trades right around the corner.

Like a super bear on SPY: sell a Apr $211/$212 call vertical for $0.20 to fund May bear put spread, like May $197/$196, or similar
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-31_spy1.png Size: 63 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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