CAD reaction to GDP data | Forex Factory

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CAD reaction to GDP data

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 31, 2015 7:45am Mar 31, 2015 7:45am
With the risk of sounding stupid, I must ask you guys to clarify one thing for me, please. I'm afraid that after a few years of ff.com I still don't understand the news. So, to keep this short:
We just had CAD news - the GDP news. It writes there that "Actual > Forecast = Good for currency". The actual is smaller, having a negative value, so I guess it's bad for the CAD. So far so good.
Now, looking at the UsdCad chart, I am assuming that after the news the price will go up. CAD is bad, so Usd will higher on that chart. Instead, it goes down. A lot.
Now this doesn't really affect me 'cause I stay away during news times, but I'd like know whether I understood correctly or not. In this case (UsdCad) if the Cad is doing bad, should the price move higher?
Or maybe I'm thinking the other way around lol
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #2
  • Mar 31, 2015 8:25am Mar 31, 2015 8:25am
I feel the same way . Not sure why it is reacting the way it is . There are different sectors that contribute to GDP. Maybe there was improvement in certain sectors , while other sectors were attributed to the global economic conditions.

I am pissed though because my entry order got filled by 0.1 pips , then price tanked 50 pips and did not give me a chance to exit .
  • #3
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:08am Mar 31, 2015 10:08am
So, theoretically, it would make more sense to go up, right?
I'm just trying to understand if there was a disturbance in the force or maybe I'm (still) an idiot lol
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #4
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:12am Mar 31, 2015 10:12am
i think there was a mistake in the forecast on forexfactory. on reuters forecast was -0,2, therefore -0,1 was a good news
  • #5
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:21am Mar 31, 2015 10:21am
Quoting Dzej
i think there was a mistake in the forecast on forexfactory. on reuters forecast was -0,2, therefore -0,1 was a good news
I see. That could explain it.
Can you please share the link to reuters forex news site? I can't find it.
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #6
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:43am Mar 31, 2015 10:43am
you can't find because there isn't one. i have access to a proffesional data news feed which isn't free. if you search macro calendar on google you'll find other sites like forexfactory and on every other site there was -0,2% forecast. i trade the news so i always check the forecast on more than 1 source.
  • #7
  • Mar 31, 2015 10:46am Mar 31, 2015 10:46am
-7.8 to 6.1 -3 1.8

In my opinion... Last monday, Cad's rmpi m/m med news from -7.8 to positive 6.1 and low impact news of ippi m/m from -3 to positive 1.8 did not materialize, also cad by technically overviewed was on strong uptrend last week friday but what had happened == it just neautralized and did not gone upward. So it was on pending and materilized only today together with the 2 low positive news and -0.1 negative impact w/c gdp sometimes doesnt affect the moves of the market.
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  • #8
  • Mar 31, 2015 11:35am Mar 31, 2015 11:35am
Well..

Keep in mind that it's a last day of the month. So probably some dude with thick glasses decided to close his long position at a time when some folks were buying. Obviously his orders were bigger so you got squeezed out

Good timing on his part I would say
  • #9
  • Mar 31, 2015 1:32pm Mar 31, 2015 1:32pm
Quoting wattaman
With the risk of sounding stupid, I must ask you guys to clarify one thing for me, please. I'm afraid that after a few years of ff.com I still don't understand the news. So, to keep this short: We just had CAD news - the GDP news. It writes there that "Actual > Forecast = Good for currency". The actual is smaller, having a negative value, so I guess it's bad for the CAD. So far so good. Now, looking at the UsdCad chart, I am assuming that after the news the price will go up. CAD is bad, so Usd will higher on that chart. Instead, it goes down. A...

If news trading was so easy (I mean there was an absolute correlation between news outcome and price movement) all of us would become millionaires. Did it include any previous value revision (it can pull price opposite to news outcome too)? What was the data that comes out together with GDP? Any outstanding changes?
  • #10
  • Mar 31, 2015 2:43pm Mar 31, 2015 2:43pm
once again price went down like it was suppose to do. forecast was -0.2, data was -0,1 so cad got stronger and usdcad went down. if some longs were triggered it's because before the data arrives there is some volatility + higher spread.
  • #11
  • Apr 1, 2015 12:27am Apr 1, 2015 12:27am
Quoting Dzej
you can't find because there isn't one. i have access to a proffesional data news feed which isn't free. if you search macro calendar on google you'll find other sites like forexfactory and on every other site there was -0,2% forecast. i trade the news so i always check the forecast on more than 1 source.
I see now. Ok, thanks for clarifying this for me.
Cheers.
Using the RobotFX EAs for a while https://www.robotfx.org/
  • #12
  • Apr 1, 2015 1:08pm Apr 1, 2015 1:08pm
Quoting wattaman
{quote} I see now. Ok, thanks for clarifying this for me. Cheers.
Hey wattaman. I thought the same, but was too shy to ask anyone. Thanks.
Gone to a better place
  • #13
  • Last Post: Apr 1, 2015 3:50pm Apr 1, 2015 3:50pm
Quoting Dzej
i think there was a mistake in the forecast on forexfactory. on reuters forecast was -0,2, therefore -0,1 was a good news

Yeap, that was the case. GDP (MoM) forecast was actually -0.2 & came out at -0.1. Better than expected explaining the sell off in USDCAD. Please find links below to FXStreet & DailyFX calendars:
http://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/
http://www.dailyfx.com/calendar
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