{quote} thank you palabara,u are most welcome to observe, however, i would really appreciate your active participation...doesn't matter if u agree or not...i have more losing trades than winning one's but as you can see my application of the different tf's skew the reward to risk heavily in my favour. As my thread title suggest...if price is UP, BUY...if price is down...sell. i don't argue with price. More importantly, coming back to the Reward:Risk ratio....in essence, this Method entails:: ...Determine TREND on long term charts {WEEKLY and...
I also hypothesized about the same theory using higher time frames to establish trend BUT it doesn't necessarily work the reason it doesn't work when looking at Monthly or weekly and saying okay trend is up and then looking at 4H it doesn't mean that there isn't 2 sided opportunities. The market moves constantly 2 sides its just knowing when NOT to be at the wrong side when its rallying because rallies happen fast.. it starts moving and it continues moving until it reaches final point a rally can continue from a few days to a few months.. but what can be done is identify and label rallies for example.. EUR/NZD has been rallying for like a lot.. over 1600 pips I think.. now if there is data to support it can be established that the rally hit an end so what happens next is it needs time to correct itself the correction can be 1/10th of the rally it can be 1/8th all corrections differ but after a long rally a correction does happen being able to identify key things helps a lot and also being patient.
Personally you don't need to use Monthly or weekly charts they are to slow I mean seriously slow and yeah theyll say long trend or short trend but within those things move up and down and if you want 100 pips looking at that far out is not as productive as believed. Instead all analysis can be preformed on daily and 4H and even 8H or anything in between. Using lower time frames adds noise and clouds judgement at least in my opinion. The markets most of the time dont move that quickly it takes time and effort and things seem a lot more fast pace when looking at lower time frames or extremely slow when looking at high time frames. I mean all of this is just my opinion. Your on to something, it just better to narrow it down further more.
The other thing, I always preach is collecting data and comparing it because your expanding your horizon by learning market tendencies. I spent few minutes per day actually trading and hours upon hours of manually collecting and analyzing data. When I am trading maybe 15 mins per every so often period of time. When you have data present in front of you, your confident in your decisions by knowing all possible outcomes sort of like playing a chess game this is your position and this is all the possible routes assume the unexpected meteor will hit the chess board too. Once all outcomes have been anticipated whenever the opponent strikes the market. Your ready for it, you've seen it coming. Further more there is no such a thing as good entry.. What makes something good or bad? it just has to be within a measurable criteria for example once again this is just my opinions. When I enter the market I know based on my data that I have X amount of room from entry meaning that based on trades upon of trades upon of trades the standard deviation is within X amount of range say 134 pips so I setup SL at 140 pips not because I think its a nice level because its been proven that this level is a level that is reached only 33% of the time.. so I have 69% chance this level wont be reached. (for example) This are pretty good odds. By trading like that your ahead of the key because at the end of the month your ahead regardless of what happened but you already knew you were going to be ahead so its like knowing your own future because the data supported it. Data is not always positive and when its not then you know this strategy wont work.
So I turn the tables back to you and say okay you've got a mission and you've got a plan now you need to quantify it and find the variable of error whats causing the issues and best thing to start is to mechanize what that means has to be non-discretionary your trades cant be placed on feeling, that area would have felt good, or this here it all has to be static (unchangeable) repeatable. The way I do it, I only use open and close of candles it eliminates guess work, its repeatable and easy to measure. I can anticipate the moves ahead and measure previous moves back.
So this is just my opinions and ways of how I do it, I mean something to think about or not hehe.
There are those who know, and there are those who don't know.
I dont understand several things, like jumping from M TF to Daily? (skipping W TF) and/or move from W to H4? (skipping Daily FT) ...why??? ...or why 1 buy (sell) signal is good and other not (u still didnt explained difference between yellow & red "x")
