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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #1,141
  • Mar 25, 2015 8:45am Mar 25, 2015 8:45am
Quoting Graviton
{image}
I've been without internet for a while.

Anyway, I think you're trying to tell us something with this chart. I know, green pips!
  • #1,142
  • Mar 25, 2015 1:01pm Mar 25, 2015 1:01pm
Quoting Graviton
{image}
Hi G.,
thanks for the chart. I suppose half RN @ 1.4450 could be resistance. Your thoughts?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EN.Daily.png Size: 46 KB
Have a nice day
  • #1,143
  • Mar 25, 2015 2:40pm Mar 25, 2015 2:40pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Hi G., thanks for the chart. I suppose half RN @ 1.4450 could be resistance. Your thoughts? {image}
Yes, I think we just hit the resistance at 1.4437

I'll put a lot on short here with a very tight stop of about 25 pips and watch it closely.
  • #1,144
  • Mar 25, 2015 3:11pm Mar 25, 2015 3:11pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, I think we just hit the resistance at 1.4437 I'll put a lot on short here with a very tight stop of about 25 pips and watch it closely.
Have a nice day
  • #1,145
  • Mar 25, 2015 6:39pm Mar 25, 2015 6:39pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, I think we just hit the resistance at 1.4437 I'll put a lot on short here with a very tight stop of about 25 pips and watch it closely.

Selling a bull market? I was wondering about your move on EURNZD. I bet smaller rsi and ma hardly line up with the big picture. Perhaps a different entry strategy. NZD loosing ground for sure and putting pressure on my last opened position but risk was covered. Oh well, c'est la vie. This job is boring!
  • #1,146
  • Mar 26, 2015 3:42am Mar 26, 2015 3:42am
EUR very bullish, up more against the USD than anything else today so far. Crazy but there it is.

There was a momentum entry on all time frames long NZDCAD yesterday. Unfortunately I got in right at the peak, but managed to bail out -27 pips which was the right decision.

Looks like we could be entering one of those periods where there are no good trend trades for a while.

Its important to remember when you are position trading like this, that there are times when you just have to sit on the sidelines.
  • #1,147
  • Edited 3:09pm Mar 26, 2015 7:34am | Edited 3:09pm
Quoting saunga2nd3
{quote} Selling a bull market? I was wondering about your move on EURNZD. I bet smaller rsi and ma hardly line up with the big picture. Perhaps a different entry strategy. NZD loosing ground for sure and putting pressure on my last opened position but risk was covered. Oh well, c'est la vie. This job is boring!
Yes, good trading should be a little boring.

Took a 20 pip loss on the first try to enter EN short. Trying again now. This will be my final try to short EN, We'll see.

Now second lot short. I'm like the guy who fell off the cliff. All the way down he kept saying, so far, so good.

Still falling. Third short on. So far so good.
  • #1,148
  • Mar 26, 2015 7:37am Mar 26, 2015 7:37am
Quoting lemna
EUR very bullish, up more against the USD than anything else today so far. Crazy but there it is. There was a momentum entry on all time frames long NZDCAD yesterday. Unfortunately I got in right at the peak, but managed to bail out -27 pips which was the right decision. Looks like we could be entering one of those periods where there are no good trend trades for a while. Its important to remember when you are position trading like this, that there are times when you just have to sit on the sidelines.
Good point lemna. Sometimes the best position is no trade. That is just as valid as long or short. There will sometimes be long periods where we just have to wait and be patient.
  • #1,149
  • Mar 26, 2015 12:23pm Mar 26, 2015 12:23pm
Maybe tomorrow...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 61 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4.png Size: 61 KB
  • #1,150
  • Mar 26, 2015 12:57pm Mar 26, 2015 12:57pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, good trading should be a little boring. Took a 20 pip loss on the first try to enter EN short. Trying again now. This will be my final try to short EN, We'll see. Now second lot short. I'm like the guy who fell off the cliff. All the way down he kept saying, so far, so good.
Jumped in @ 1.4450 with no SL as I found out that often its better to only set a security SL....
Now position is 75 pips plus with chance to reach RN 1.40...lets see what it does.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EN-SHORT.png Size: 43 KB
Have a nice day
  • #1,151
  • Mar 26, 2015 3:33pm Mar 26, 2015 3:33pm
Quoting saunga2nd3
Maybe tomorrow...
Well, the Saudi's and Egypt getting involved in Yemen has popped the price of oil up. There is no good reason for that, but as they say, the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.
  • #1,152
  • Edited 4:08pm Mar 26, 2015 3:39pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Jumped in @ 1.4450 with no SL as I found out that often its better to only set a security SL.... Now position is 75 pips plus with chance to reach RN 1.40...lets see what it does...
Oh, very good entry! We both were jumping in a little early on the EN short. That may be a mistake of impatience, but the longer term trend on the daily, weekly and monthly often corrects my mistakes and makes me look smarter than I really am.

Hmmm, looks like the rest of the market sees the trade now. Price dropping quickly. I may put a 4th lot on short and let it run a bit.

Later, 4th lot on EN short now. Stops set to BE so no risk in the trade. Going to step away from it for a while and let it run.
  • #1,153
  • Mar 26, 2015 7:39pm Mar 26, 2015 7:39pm
I had my sight on 1.4260 for a while, first we need to drop below there. Thanks for the heads up on the CAD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURNZDH4.png Size: 63 KB
  • #1,154
  • Mar 27, 2015 10:31am Mar 27, 2015 10:31am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Oh, very good entry! We both were jumping in a little early on the EN short. That may be a mistake of impatience, but the longer term trend on the daily, weekly and monthly often corrects my mistakes and makes me look smarter than I really am.
As I am not able to sit in front of the pc hour by hour I had to set a limit sell order. But wasn`t too bad. After triggering price went about 45 pips
into the wrong direction- then turned.....

Quote
Hmmm, looks like the rest of the market sees the trade now. Price dropping quickly. I may put a 4th lot on short and let it run a bit. Later, 4th lot on EN short now. Stops set to BE so no risk in the trade. Going to step away from it for a while and let it run.

SL set above the MA 200 of the hourly chart. That is 75 pips safe win....We`ll see if TL and MA hold as resistance or not.
Wish good trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EN-Trade-continuation.png Size: 61 KB
Have a nice day
  • #1,155
  • Mar 30, 2015 8:09am Mar 30, 2015 8:09am
Hi G,

Just wanted to drop you a note to say Hi. I have been tied up for a couple of weeks, but starting back again with more practice. Currently in AU short and GA long. Both doing OK - up ~70 pips each overnite with SL at BE+10. Plan to look for PB to add to positions. I know that you would have taken your first profit by now, but I need to get a little more experience just following my pairs. Baby steps!

Best, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #1,156
  • Edited 10:05am Mar 30, 2015 9:48am | Edited 10:05am
Quoting AlbinaGrande
Hi G, Just wanted to drop you a note to say Hi. I have been tied up for a couple of weeks, but starting back again with more practice. Currently in AU short and GA long. Both doing OK - up ~70 pips each overnite with SL at BE+10. Plan to look for PB to add to positions. I know that you would have taken your first profit by now, but I need to get a little more experience just following my pairs. Baby steps! Best, AG
Glad to hear your trades are doing well AG. I'm always tempted to just pile on when trades are going in my favor, but we must respect the high risk involved in adding to winning trades. That is if the trade turns against us, it will lose much quicker than it made pips. Controlling risks so that regardless of how many lots are trading, risks never exceed 1 X sl, tends to mitigate a lot of the extraordinary risk incurred by trading multi-lot. Of course, that risk cap is at the cost of a slower initial growth in profits on a winning trade, but if the trend runs long enough it will still make very healthy profits. Cheers.
  • #1,157
  • Mar 30, 2015 10:53am Mar 30, 2015 10:53am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Glad to hear your trades are doing well AG. I'm always tempted to just pile on when trades are going in my favor, but we must respect the high risk involved in adding to winning trades. That is if the trade turns against us, it will lose much quicker than it made pips. Controlling risks so that regardless of how many lots are trading, risks never exceed 1 X sl, tends to mitigate a lot of the extraordinary risk incurred by trading multi-lot. Of course, that risk cap is at the cost of a slower initial growth in profits on a winning trade,...
Thanks G,

I decided to close my 2 positions for 190 pips in total because I feared that they were becoming overstretched, and Momentum may have begun to fade a bit - also at ~50% ATR tho I do not know if you take that into consideration. Now looking for a PB with a nice pip cushion to build from.

So my question now relates to building my Bank on a weekly basis. I recall some time back your talking about aiming for a 3-5% weekly haul with a gorgeous Equity Curve if compounded over a year. But it strikes me that I need really to think of myself as a small business owner who has to meet a payroll - aka Mrs AG. From this perspective I want to be pulling out profit on a weekly basis in addition to setting up some longer term running positions for Capital growth.

Can you check my figures: For the purpose of example, 150-200 pips weekly on a $5000 account(scale-able) should do the trick using 1 Mini lot or 10 Micro lots with 2% aggregate risk(100 pips). If I am right, my current 190 pips can meet payroll. Now I need to protect it and build up a runner.

Mrs AG says to quit while I am ahead and come back after Easter.

Best, AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #1,158
  • Edited 6:49pm Mar 30, 2015 1:04pm | Edited 6:49pm
Quoting AlbinaGrande
{quote} Thanks G, I decided to close my 2 positions for 190 pips in total because I feared that they were becoming overstretched, and Momentum may have begun to fade a bit - also at ~50% ATR tho I do not know if you take that into consideration. Now looking for a PB with a nice pip cushion to build from. So my question now relates to building my Bank on a weekly basis. I recall some time back your talking about aiming for a 3-5% weekly haul with a gorgeous Equity Curve if compounded over a year. But it strikes me that I need really to think of myself...
Well, I certainly wouldn't venture to disagree with a spouse. EVERY time I have ever done that I was wrong. Your numbers look correct to me. I will note that trading is different than working a regular job for a fixed amount each week. It's not unusual to work very hard in trading for weeks just to wind up near break even, and then make the entire months profit in just a few days of good trading. If we knew ahead of time which would be the few profitable days, we'd just skip all those other weeks of fruitless work and only trade those few profitable days. Unfortunately, I have yet to meet the trader that possesses those precognitive abilities. Thus we participate in markets to be there when the payoff shows up, never knowing when it will show up. Even if there are no good trades to take for days or weeks at a time, we are still working by monitoring the markets and looking for a good setup. Also, we probably wouldn't want to always quit trading when we are winning because we have met some predetermined profit target, and keep trading when we are losing because we haven't met that target. Just the opposite of that might be a better strategy.

Because the markets profits tend to come in big floods with long dry spells in between, smoothing the equity curve is one of the most difficult things we try to do. Trading more aggressively to make profits when the market is offering none is usually counter productive and certainly not taking full advantage of a good run of profitable trading when it is available doesn't maximize profits over the long haul. The only thing that I have found that really helps to smooth my equity curve without reducing long term profits is some broad diversification across instruments, methods and markets. So for instance, I can use basically the same method to trade S&P mini's and commodities (diversification of instruments), and "Magic Formula Investing" in individual stocks (diversification of methods and markets). There are many good articles on the net about smoothing the equity curve in trading and I'd suggest you study them when trading is slow. In the end, if the market would just offer steady profits rather than big waves followed by nothing in between, this would all be a lot easier, but it just doesn't work that way and there is nothing we can do to change what the market offers us. Thus, we will always have to live with some level of instability in the equity curve if we are going to trade for maximum reasonable profits. Of course we can do things to avoid the big losses and the other risk management items we have discussed, but beyond a certain point, working further to reduce the instability in the equity curve comes at a very heavy cost to absolute profits.
  • #1,159
  • Mar 30, 2015 1:15pm Mar 30, 2015 1:15pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Well, I certainly wouldn't venture to disagree with a spouse. EVERY time I have ever done that I was wrong. Your numbers look correct to me. I will note that trading is different than working a regular job for a fixed amount each week. It's not unusual to work very hard in trading for weeks just to wind up near break even, and then make the entire months profit in just a few days of good trading. If we knew ahead of time which would be the few profitable days, we'd just skip all those other weeks of fruitless work and only trade those few...
Thanks G,

I take your meaning. I really appreciate your thoughtful posts.

BTW I was only kidding about Mrs AG. She is very patient, supportive and interested in your views. She leans towards the equities herself.

AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #1,160
  • Mar 31, 2015 4:16am Mar 31, 2015 4:16am
EUR/USD and USD/CAD are giving some multi-timeframe momentum entries that have done pretty well so far... though its early days yet.

Seems we are back to these three currencies dominating the market. Both pairs have been generous with the pips over recent months.
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