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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Feb 23, 2016 3:22am Mar 28, 2015 12:56pm | Edited Feb 23, 2016 3:22am
This is where I will be posting some high probability trades based on my personal study of the market.

As you may have noticed, this thread is under the "Trading Journals" section not the "Trading Systems" section, so if you are waiting for someone to teach you a system or as some like to call it, some 'secret', this is not the place to be.

Despite being known for the TZ concept on FF, this thread is not a continuation or in any way related to any other thread I have participated in.
The setups are the result of my experience with different concepts that include (but are not limited to) TZ, Market Probabilities, Trend Trading, Currency Strength, and Sentiment Analysis.

If you would like to participate, I would appreciate it if you could limit the participation to why you agree/disagree with the setups posted.
Charts/Analysis are always welcome whether you are with or against my calls. A healthy debate and exchange of views is the best way to learn & advance for both the participant and viewers.

I would like to keep everything simple and straightforward. No drama, just trading.
Both excessive negativity & excessive unnecessary praising won't be tolerated.
  • #2
  • Edited 1:28pm Mar 28, 2015 1:12pm | Edited 1:28pm
Here's something to start with

I'm seeing lots of people expecting new lows for EURUUSD.
Personally, I don't have any setups for that pair, but I'm slightly more on the bullish camp.

Why am I more bullish than bearish, and what are my targets?

1- USDCHF High Probability setup

The inverse correlation between USDCHF & EURUSD is no secret.
Eventhough I don't have a high probability setup for EU, I do have one for USDCHF.

According to my calculations there's a >95% probability that USDCHF will make a new low below 0.9490 before any new high
In other words there's a 95% chance that USDCHF will reach 0.9490 before 1.0130 within the next 3 weeks

2- USD vs. EUR vs. CHF Currency Strength

According to my calculations, USD is currently the weakest of all currencies, CHF the strongest, and EUR is half way in between


** Conclusion: I would rather buy EU rather than sell at this point at least until USDCHF clears 0.9490 & the USD starts gaining some strength.
Just to be clear, a new low in EU (below 1.045) is not totally out of question in general, but it would be highly improbable before a new short term high preceeding it
  • #3
  • Mar 28, 2015 2:12pm Mar 28, 2015 2:12pm
Considering the current R:R of the USDCHF short, would you place an order come Sunday or would you wait for a better price? 95% is good probability and excellent R:R is not necessary for success, but I'd just like to know if your going to place 1 large order, or several sell limits? Thanks Jay.
A Positive Mind, and Positive Spirit lead to True Happiness
  • #4
  • Mar 28, 2015 2:39pm Mar 28, 2015 2:39pm
Quoting Rparm
Considering the current R:R of the USDCHF short, would you place an order come Sunday or would you wait for a better price? 95% is good probability and excellent R:R is not necessary for success, but I'd just like to know if your going to place 1 large order, or several sell limits? Thanks Jay.
I would like to avoid the MM related questions because I believe this is something that is hard to teach and is very subjective.
It totally depends on each person's trading style & account size.
That's why I'm basically staying away from posting trade volumes or entry prices.

This brings us back to the fact that I want this thread to be a place for sharing/discussing setups rather than trades & trading techniques.

But just to answer your question for this time, I'm already in the USDCHF short boat from 0.9655 & will be more than willing to add shorts all the way up to 0.9800
  • #5
  • Mar 29, 2015 9:36am Mar 29, 2015 9:36am
Nice thread mate.

I'm sorry to say that my bias for the next week on USD/CHF is the opposite of your bearish one. Based on fundemental analysis, i have that pair as the absolutely strongest in the upcoming week. Can't say anything for the week after, but for the next 5 days i'm very bullish. My prediction is purely based on divergenses in fundemental developments, and the roles of the big players.

Anyway, i'm glad that you're back at FF, and i wish you the best of luck with this thread and your setups.

After all, you have proven to be one of the most talented guys in here
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #6
  • Mar 29, 2015 9:49am Mar 29, 2015 9:49am
Quoting FX-Jay
Here's something to start with I'm seeing lots of people expecting new lows for EURUUSD. Personally, I don't have any setups for that pair, but I'm slightly more on the bullish camp. Why am I more bullish than bearish, and what are my targets? 1- USDCHF High Probability setup The inverse correlation between USDCHF & EURUSD is no secret. Eventhough I don't have a high probability setup for EU, I do have one for USDCHF. According to my calculations there's a >95% probability that USDCHF will make a new low below 0.9490 before any new high In other...
Hi Jay, what time frame are you using to get your analysis? I ask so that I may be able to participate.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #7
  • Mar 29, 2015 10:37am Mar 29, 2015 10:37am
Quoting Ullen
Nice thread mate. I'm sorry to say that my bias for the next week on USD/CHF is the opposite of your bearish one. Based on fundemental analysis, i have that pair as the absolutely strongest in the upcoming week. Can't say anything for the week after, but for the next 5 days i'm very bullish. My prediction is purely based on divergenses in fundemental developments, and the roles of the big players. Anyway, i'm glad that you're back at FF, and i wish you the best of luck with this thread and your setups. After all, you have proven to be one of the...
Nothing to be sorry about

My view is for the coming 3 weeks; for me any strength in USDCHF during next week is a selling opportunity & I'm more than 95% sure that we'll have a new short term low below 0.9490 before the longer term high of 1.013. There may be lots of buy & sell opportunities in between those levels, but its up to each trader to find a way to trade it.

Would like to note also that once a new low is made, my bearish view is done, and I'll be on the sideline until I get a new signal.
  • #8
  • Mar 29, 2015 10:41am Mar 29, 2015 10:41am
Quoting jmn5611
{quote} Hi Jay, what time frame are you using to get your analysis? I ask so that I may be able to participate.
Hey mate, I'm using both Daily & 4H TFs that's why my setups won't be very short term
  • #9
  • Mar 29, 2015 10:55am Mar 29, 2015 10:55am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey mate, I'm using both Daily & 4H TFs that's why my setups won't be very short term
Thanks. I view you as a trader who has a clue, so I am glad you started this thread. It gives me a counterweight to my own analysis.
If you are good at something, never do it for free--Joker
  • #10
  • Mar 29, 2015 7:15pm Mar 29, 2015 7:15pm
Hi Jay,

I see that you have requested to keep responses to only the setups you post, but I was hoping you might be able to expand on the questions I raised in the "Transient Zones - Basics" thread last week please?? Here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post8165853


Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I will do that in a separate thread once I have a little more time on my hand. It's basically built from TZ derived MA combinations Still lots of testing need to be done, there's no way I would have been able to test that fast if it wasn't for the extremely generous contributions of Sciurus who's providing the coding and technical help. {quote} Definitely still am, this does wonders most of the times when you want a perfect entry with a minimum drawdown. I have to admit though that it needs a little optimization from the way I mentioned...
Not looking for any spoon feeding, just healthy discussion.
Thanks in advance!
What's it all about? It's all about money.
  • #11
  • Mar 29, 2015 11:12pm Mar 29, 2015 11:12pm
Hi Jay,

Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} will be more than willing to add shorts all the way up to 0.9800
why not up until 0.99 area ? is it because the 3 weeks time you mention ?


the way i see it,according the TZ concept , if we want to trade only on TZ concept we have to had good MM because the potential DD is huge? is this correct?


could you clarify this based on H1 chart i have a potential setup targetting 9560 area,


i also sent PM to you hope you can answer it TQ



-edgar
Closer To Dream
  • #12
  • Mar 29, 2015 11:18pm Mar 29, 2015 11:18pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Nothing to be sorry about My view is for the coming 3 weeks; for me any strength in USDCHF during next week is a selling opportunity & I'm more than 95% sure that we'll have a new short term low below 0.9490 before the longer term high of 1.013. There may be lots of buy & sell opportunities in between those levels, but its up to each trader to find a way to trade it. Would like to note also that once a new low is made, my bearish view is done, and I'll be on the sideline until I get a new signal.
Agree with you on USD CHF and EUR USD in the short term. I will say though, that CHF long term is probably the biggest disaster that I'm seeing, probably more so than any other currency. I'm looking forward to buying XXX CHF long term, hopefully after a nice CHF bull run and HL than that ridiculous XXX CHF sell off we saw following the move by SNB to abolish 1.2 floor on E/CHF.
  • #13
  • Apr 5, 2015 6:13pm Apr 5, 2015 6:13pm
Quoting Innate
Hi Jay, I see that you have requested to keep responses to only the setups you post, but I was hoping you might be able to expand on the questions I raised in the "Transient Zones - Basics" thread last week please?? Here http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post8165853 {quote} Not looking for any spoon feeding, just healthy discussion. Thanks in advance!
As I mentioned earlier, this will be discussed in its respective thread once I will have time for it
Hopefully that will be some time soon
  • #14
  • Apr 5, 2015 6:19pm Apr 5, 2015 6:19pm
Quoting edgartan
Hi Jay, {quote} why not up until 0.99 area ? is it because the 3 weeks time you mention ? the way i see it,according the TZ concept , if we want to trade only on TZ concept we have to had good MM because the potential DD is huge? is this correct? could you clarify this based on H1 chart i have a potential setup targetting 9560 area, i also sent PM to you hope you can answer it TQ -edgar

The 0.98 area has to do with my money management actually. In theory there shouldn't have been any problem selling at higher prices if all the same entry factors were still aligned in the same way.

Trading TZ just by itself isn't actually a very good idea unless you have a very good sense of money management. Ultimately the best thing to do is create a system that has flexible MM built in into the rules of entry & exit of any setup, and in my opinion it shouldn't be fixed, it has to be dynamic.
I won't get into more details about this bcz as I mentioned in the 1st post, this thread will be limited for discussing high probability setups

I'll make sure to answer all PMs soon
  • #15
  • Apr 5, 2015 6:25pm Apr 5, 2015 6:25pm
Quoting Ck87
{quote} Agree with you on USD CHF and EUR USD in the short term. I will say though, that CHF long term is probably the biggest disaster that I'm seeing, probably more so than any other currency. I'm looking forward to buying XXX CHF long term, hopefully after a nice CHF bull run and HL than that ridiculous XXX CHF sell off we saw following the move by SNB to abolish 1.2 floor on E/CHF.
Hey CK87

Glad to see you around here

As expected, a new short term low was made before any major high was made on USDCHF. Personally I'm now on the side for both both USDCHF & EURUSD after my target was reached. I'll be waiting for a new signal to decide my next short/medium term outlook for those pairs, but what I can say for now is that the EURUSD's PA in the coming 3 days (till Wednesday) will be very crucial for giving us a confirmation for the coming relatively 'big' move
  • #16
  • Apr 5, 2015 6:40pm Apr 5, 2015 6:40pm
Update:

Quoting FX-Jay
Here's something to start with I'm seeing lots of people expecting new lows for EURUUSD. Personally, I don't have any setups for that pair, but I'm slightly more on the bullish camp.
No more reason for bullishness at the moment. EU is currently around 150 pips higher than the price it was at during the previous post. Profits are booked & currently on the sidelines. Not being bullish doesn't mean I'm bearish, I just don't have any confirmed high probability setup yet.
The next 3 days' PA (till Wed NY session) will be crucial to determine the next move

Quoting FX-Jay
According to my calculations there's a >95% probability that USDCHF will make a new low below 0.9490 before any new high In other words there's a 95% chance that USDCHF will reach 0.9490 before 1.0130 within the next 3 weeks
It didn't take us 3 weeks All it needed was 1 week and the target was hit i.e 0.9490 was hit even though the vast majority were expecting a completely different outcome for NFP. 95% isn't a 100% , but still it isn't a number to take lightly.


Quoting FX-Jay
I would rather buy EU rather than sell at this point at least until USDCHF clears 0.9490 & the USD starts gaining some strength. Just to be clear, a new low in EU (below 1.045) is not totally out of question in general, but it would be highly improbable before a new short term high preceeding it
As mentioned earlier I don't care anymore for a new high in EU as long as the USDCHF new short term high was made.
Concerning a new low for EU below 1.045, yes, it is still not out of question, and I do believe the next 70 hours will have lots to tell us about it.
  • #17
  • Apr 6, 2015 9:50am Apr 6, 2015 9:50am
Hi Jay! excellent way of expression you've got, i would kiss you if i could. Classic analysis. And pls dont you stop.

highest regards
fm
No Risk No Reward
  • #18
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:46am Apr 10, 2015 1:46am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I'll be waiting for a new signal to decide my next short/medium term outlook for those pairs, but what I can say for now is that the EURUSD's PA in the coming 3 days (till Wednesday) will be very crucial for giving us a confirmation for the coming relatively 'big' move
Quoting FX-Jay
As mentioned earlier I don't care anymore for a new high in EU as long as the USDCHF new short term high was made. Concerning a new low for EU below 1.045, yes, it is still not out of question, and I do believe the next 70 hours will have lots to tell us about it.
The 70 hours are now gone, and as you probably have noticed, the EURUSD already decided in what direction to move. Personally I believe that this is not all, probabilities favor a new low below 1.0462.

The period between Monday & Wednesday was very important & there was 1 price to look at: 1.1050
If EU was able to exceed that level by Wednesday, the probability for a new low would have been either delayed or cancelled all together. However, the fact that it didn't reach that level greatly shifted the probabilities towards having a new low.
  • #19
  • Apr 10, 2015 1:52am Apr 10, 2015 1:52am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} {quote} The 70 hours are now gone, and as you probably have noticed, the EURUSD already decided in what direction to move. Personally I believe that this is not all, probabilities favor a new low below 1.0462. The period between Monday & Wednesday was very important & there was 1 price to look at: 1.1050 If EU was able to exceed that level by Wednesday, the probability for a new low would have been either delayed or cancelled all together. However, the fact that it didn't reach that level greatly shifted the probabilities towards having...
I don't have an exact timing for this new low to occur, but the probabilities for GBPUSD may be giving a clue.
Unlike EURUSD, the timing for GPBUSD is much clearer. I expect with high certainty that the GU low of 1.4635 will be taken out before the end of next week.
Let's see if EU will act as fast also
  • #20
  • Apr 10, 2015 3:03am Apr 10, 2015 3:03am
Here's one high probability trade + the best way to trade it:

USDJPY will almost certainly reach the 120.73 high.
I wouldn't recommend buying at these prices since we are only 25 pips away from the target. An additional 50 pip retrace would be perfect, but unfortunately not guaranteed.

The most optimal entry 'time wise' would be on Monday just in case the target wasn't hit by then.
Once the target is reached we move to the next one
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