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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #18,341
  • Mar 24, 2015 1:50pm Mar 24, 2015 1:50pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yup i made and posted same observation on EU thread. Its not strange though. Simple answer: strong CHF. Predicting strong CHF was not really hard thing to do after we topped out correction, and as you can see not even rising EUR can pull up ECHF, which means there is huge pressure on SNB. Now also mind that this is now without rising rates in air for USD, once EUR starts rolling, SNB will be forced to heavily cut or go capital controls. Mark my words. Longing ahead of every SNB meeting makes sense, its not risk free though, if you go stronger...
Has been talks abouth the ceiling 1,5-11 but today it looks as if they have given up this too. Its diffecult to understand that they are letting this happen-

http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/on-the-r...o-peg/41334872
  • #18,342
  • Edited 3:26pm Mar 24, 2015 3:15pm | Edited 3:26pm
[quote=infinitus;8161321]{image} Short-Term Gains & Long-Term Disaster Submitted by {image} Its time for the Japanese to get seriously scared now. Like many other countries, Japan and its political class creates a false image of enduring prosperity by letting its central bank increasingly buy up ever more of its sovereign bonds.

This remind me, the way I felt, when I knew that one of the biggest Holdhanders of the Spanish Bonds, were the Spanish Fund Public Pensions. So, a lot of the Fund of our future Pensions is invested in our own Spanish Bonds. During the worst moments of the crisis, when the yields of the Spanish Bonds were at 6% from German's, the Fund Public Pensions,invested in Spanish Bonds, to avoid the disaster, as nobody in the market wanted the Spanish Bonds at that moment ( when we were bailed out)

Is this democracy? Did they ask us were they were going to invest our Future? So, IF, another crisis come, and we cannot pay the Bonds, of course, we won't we able to pay the Pensions. We invest in ourselves..
Do you know who are the two biggest handholders of Spanish Bonds??? Santander and BBVA, the two biggest Spanish Banks. So on, we are in their hands...
  • #18,343
  • Mar 24, 2015 3:24pm Mar 24, 2015 3:24pm
BTW: planning a Norway trip this summer/autumn. Best places for Moskito-free living? Nothing scares me more than the sound of a Moskito [/quote]

Off the record: Try to go to Scottish Highlands during summertime. Ask for the midges...,real beasts, There are,this is real, a MIDGES FORECAST in the Newspapers,Radios,,local tv's. Places where there is a high density of this beasts, and you should avoid to go.. I wanted to go to see places, as the most beatiful places are where they are(Glencoe valley,Ben Nevis area), and I suffer them.
  • #18,344
  • Mar 24, 2015 3:28pm Mar 24, 2015 3:28pm
is this possible?

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #18,345
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:00pm Mar 24, 2015 4:00pm
Quoting ffleo
is this possible? {image}

absolutely

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post8159657
  • #18,346
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:28pm Mar 24, 2015 5:28pm
42% bulls on EU

43% bulls on DXY

That change was quick, I mean. I think for a true bottom, we would see over a longer time elevated bearish levels in EU, and not this quick relief


Live Cattle and Nikkei with around 90% bulls may call for a setback soon.
  • #18,347
  • Mar 25, 2015 2:16am Mar 25, 2015 2:16am
Have you read this news about Russia

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...62#post8162062
  • #18,348
  • Mar 25, 2015 2:38am Mar 25, 2015 2:38am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
The Canadian Housing Bubble Has Begun To Burst
  • #18,349
  • Mar 25, 2015 3:41am Mar 25, 2015 3:41am
Quoting infinitus
42% bulls on EU 43% bulls on DXY That change was quick, I mean. I think for a true bottom, we would see over a longer time elevated bearish levels in EU, and not this quick relief Live Cattle and Nikkei with around 90% bulls may call for a setback soon.
Huh that was quick change. Interesting, structurally however there is good chance to see higher price. Usually when structure doesnt agree and bulls come in with down trend then its good signal it will fail, but this time its not that clear from my view.
  • #18,350
  • Mar 25, 2015 3:43am Mar 25, 2015 3:43am
OK, let us make some thoughts about EU

As I showed last days, from a fib-prespective we may have ended wave 3 down, and are now up in a fourth wave retracement.

I labelled the count as alternative 3, which in fact now is my main count



Common believe right now seems to be, that the EU wil not retrace high (maybe the 1.12 region), maybe even sideways for a longer time between the low and 1.12 region.

When most Elliotticans agree, it may pay to think for alternatives.


So I took my former main count again on the board:

it shows a finished impulsive move to the downside, where the wave 5 is extended.

A correction after a 5th wave extension targets most of the time the wave 2 area inside of the 5th wave extension.

I marked the area on the chart. It is roughly the 2250-2600 area.


We should keep this in mind, because it may define the risk of any trade
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  • #18,351
  • Mar 25, 2015 3:47am Mar 25, 2015 3:47am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Huh that was quick change. Interesting, structurally however there is good chance to see higher price. Usually when structure doesnt agree and bulls come in with down trend then its good signal it will fail, but this time its not that clear from my view.

Hi Jan,

with the recent Sentiment data and the fact, that anybody in the forum seems to think that after 1.12-1.13 it will head to parity or below, I felt the need to look again on my former main count with the extended fifth wave.

The movement avter the end of an extended 5th normally is very sharp. We have seen this already

So to be cautious seems to be a good idea
  • #18,352
  • Mar 25, 2015 3:57am Mar 25, 2015 3:57am
alternative 3 count = new main count

EU 2h TF
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  • #18,353
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:05am Mar 25, 2015 4:05am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Schickeria, I do not know how many times I have read the EWP, but each time I find something what slipped my eyes beforehand, or does annoy me. This time I found, that in a zigzag, wave A "ALMOST ALWAYS" develops as an impulse. Translation: in rare cases it may develop as zigzag or flat? So when we look at the RULES of a flat, it states, that the B-wave has to retrace at least 90%. OK, so now let us look for a RULE for the B-wave of a zigzag: there is no rule. There is only a guideline which says, that a B wave "TYPICALLY"...
So first i want to start from 1.3993 high. Starting analysing only the last drop from 1.3993 and not beginning from 2008 high @ 1.6030 !!!!!!!

1. Picture
As you can remember i said: the drop of 1.3993 is NEVER EVER a IMPULSE MOVE as some people counted it.
For me is the move from 1.3993 to 1.3332 a running flat which has a target @ 61.8% = 1.33332
One thing is sure a Flat starts with a 3-3 structure and not as a impulse.

2. Picture
On the 2nd picture i see a finished Flat (not Zigzag) with Target 138.2% = 1.2499.
1.3993 to 1.2499 is a clear Flat for me incl. fibo targets. Counting (y-wave) from 1.3411 to 1.2499 as a impulse is legitim and correct.
Only Flats has a target @ 138.2% and all Impulsive waves targets 100%, 61%, and 161.8%.

3. Picture Big Picture
Top 1.3993 to 1.04708 is for me a clear LEG W of a Flat until now and the fu**ing X-Wave started now from 1.04708. All what we know X-Wave can be all what you want from complex structure. Counting from X = 1.2886 to Y = 1.04708 as impulse is also legitim and correct on my view while leg Y or C is a impulse wave with 1-2-3-4-5.
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  • #18,354
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:05am Mar 25, 2015 4:05am
Russia Under Attack

http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/03/25/4942

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,355
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:15am Mar 25, 2015 4:15am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} So first i want to start from 1.3993 high. Starting analysing only the last drop from 1.3993 and not beginning from 2008 high @ 1.6030 !!!!!!! 1. Picture As you can remember i said: the drop of 1.3993 is NEVER EVER a IMPULSE MOVE as some people counted it. For me is the move from 1.3993 to 1.3332 a running flat which has a target @ 61.8% = 1.33332 One thing is sure a Flat starts with a 3-3 structure and not as a impulse. 2. Picture On the 2nd picture i see a finished Flat (not Zigzag) with Target 138.2% = 1.2499. 1.3993 to 1.2499 is a clear...
One of your pictures show, that the correction after a 5th wave extension ends at the low of the 4th wave inside of the extension.

In EWP we find:

it ends at the low of the wave 2 inside the extension. Further he states, that that target might sometimes only the wave A

What is the source of your pictures?
Attached Image
  • #18,356
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:16am Mar 25, 2015 4:16am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} So first i want to start from 1.3993 high. Starting analysing only the last drop from 1.3993 and not beginning from 2008 high @ 1.6030 !!!!!!! 1. Picture As you can remember i said: the drop of 1.3993 is NEVER EVER a IMPULSE MOVE as some people counted it. For me is the move from 1.3993 to 1.3332 a running flat which has a target @ 61.8% = 1.33332 One thing is sure a Flat starts with a 3-3 structure and not as a impulse. 2. Picture On the 2nd picture i see a finished Flat (not Zigzag) with Target 138.2% = 1.2499. 1.3993 to 1.2499 is a clear...
If anyone has a another analysis (aka oldschool ew-rules) please post it - but i want only to discuss if the fibo targets hits the targets round about 10-15 Pips tolerance.

If anyone has a valid impulsive wave count to the downside i want to see the analysis - i spent lot of time to find a impulse downwards, but this result is only what i have found.
  • #18,357
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:21am Mar 25, 2015 4:21am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} One of your pictures show, that the correction after a 5th wave extension ends at the low of the 4th wave inside of the extension. In EWP we find: it ends at the low of the wave 2 inside the extension. Further he states, that that target might sometimes only the wave A What is the source of your pictures? {image}
i really don't understand what you mean - can you post the pic
  • #18,358
  • Mar 25, 2015 4:38am Mar 25, 2015 4:38am
Quoting infinitus
alternative 3 count = new main count EU 2h TF {image}
Hi, I agree with this. For Daily chart, levels I look to short are 1.1114, 1.1280 and 1.1420 (Strong Resistance)
Bavarian Trading FX
  • #18,359
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:10am Mar 25, 2015 5:10am
EU

Current active zone: 1.0865 to 1.1255

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  • #18,360
  • Mar 25, 2015 5:46am Mar 25, 2015 5:46am
The Saker interviews Paul Craig Roberts

http://thesaker.is/the-saker-intervi...craig-roberts/

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
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