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  • #7,801
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:29am Mar 23, 2015 9:29am
Does the DOW and SnP follow the RUSSELL into making new highs this week, will be watching carefully today for clues
  • #7,802
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:24pm Mar 23, 2015 2:24pm
filled a SPY $207 Mar5/Apr1 put calendar for 14c, last one of those same week calendars I will do on SPY. Was looking for a breakout this week, SnP has been in a $70 range m/l since end of January, maybe not gonna happen....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,803
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:27pm Mar 23, 2015 2:27pm
What a boring day. That only means that market will probably grind higher in following days.

Looking for some plays, SNDK maybe interesting...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Already falling today, from the top of the channel which I consider as a bear flag. ER's are due on Apr 15 AH...
So, I was thinking about some bearish calendars where long leg will be Apr monthlies, OR some bear call spreads (IVR over 60)...
Work in progress, since the mofo has really bad options... Maybe I just missed that, could short it via stocks CFDs...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,804
  • Mar 23, 2015 2:37pm Mar 23, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting StrayDog
What a boring day. That only means that market will probably grind higher in following days....
Yep, "never short a dull tape" the old hands say. Me I am sleeping off the flu, was sick all weekend, better off not trading anyway til I'm well...but looking at USO spreads....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,805
  • Mar 23, 2015 3:02pm Mar 23, 2015 3:02pm
I bought some USO $17.5 calls near the close, @ $0.11 - looking for wti to get back to $50 on a weakening USD
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,806
  • Mar 23, 2015 3:03pm Mar 23, 2015 3:03pm
Ah all the show is this final 15 minutes... just buy that dip...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,807
  • Mar 23, 2015 3:19pm Mar 23, 2015 3:19pm
Quoting StrayDog
Ah all the show is this final 15 minutes... just buy that dip...
well, we'll see, I just need to see the shit move, either way...laterzzzzz
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,808
  • Mar 23, 2015 3:37pm Mar 23, 2015 3:37pm
earnings season, ...what, already...?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/previe...194207676.html

"Bottom line, the Q1 earnings season is shaping up to be very weak. Not only is the expected growth rate very low, but estimates of total earnings in the quarter are also the lowest of any other recent quarter."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,809
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:33pm Mar 23, 2015 10:33pm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-he...055925746.html

"Actually, there is no floor to the price of oil. The oil floor is the cash cost of shale, which is about $20-$25, so it can go as low as that but it won't stay there," he said.

"He also noted that the total cost of producing crude in Saudi Arabia is around $3-5 per barrel, compared with a minimum of $40 for shale producers."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,810
  • Mar 24, 2015 1:18am Mar 24, 2015 1:18am
Quoting The Fool
"Bottom line, the Q1 earnings season is shaping up to be very weak. Not only is the expected growth rate very low, but estimates of total earnings in the quarter are also the lowest of any other recent quarter."
so....sell in May, go away? May1/May SPY $195/$193 puts debits $0.28 to make max $1.11, needs a dip below $203.50.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,811
  • Mar 24, 2015 2:11am Mar 24, 2015 2:11am
Quoting The Fool
I bought some USO $17.5 calls near the close, @ $0.11 - looking for wti to get back to $50 on a weakening USD
wrong on this so far, raft of ezone pmi data coming thru soon, see if that might not turn fiber around & support oil a bit...then us cpi, anybody's guess
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,812
  • Mar 24, 2015 8:23am Mar 24, 2015 8:23am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Yep, "never short a dull tape" the old hands say. Me I am sleeping off the flu, was sick all weekend, better off not trading anyway til I'm well...but looking at USO spreads....

Hello from down the road. Hope you are doing better, I too am working off this flu crap that has seemed to hang on forever.

Anyway. Time for me to get my options shoes back on. Will be following you closely
Illegitimi non carborundum - Noli pati a scelestis opprimi.
  • #7,813
  • Mar 24, 2015 9:36am Mar 24, 2015 9:36am
US indices and crude find a slippery slope when the USD is ascending now..... that dynamic could play out and we have a continued uptrend for the $ and stocks all together, but I doubt it. I had hopes earlier when I saw fiber break $1.10, but she couldn't hold...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,814
  • Mar 24, 2015 9:38am Mar 24, 2015 9:38am
Quoting Rufus
{quote} Hello from down the road. Hope you are doing better, I too am working off this flu crap that has seemed to hang on forever. Anyway. Time for me to get my options shoes back on. Will be following you closely
Hey, Rufus - stop in anytime - we need some more options traders in here...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,815
  • Mar 24, 2015 10:28am Mar 24, 2015 10:28am
Nasdaq is leading the way up... nice bull flag broken.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Looking at AMZN... some bearish play until next earnings, lookint to MAYBE sell a 390/395 Apr call spread to finance a 370/367.50 put spread...
But on the other hand, bearish play on stock that is NQ100 component? Hm...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,816
  • Mar 24, 2015 10:54am Mar 24, 2015 10:54am
Quoting The Fool
earnings season, ...what, already...? http://finance.yahoo.com/news/previe...194207676.html "Bottom line, the Q1 earnings season is shaping up to be very weak. Not only is the expected growth rate very low, but estimates of total earnings in the quarter are also the lowest of any other recent quarter."
Hi mate, I have just read an article about slowing momentum of earnings, possibly carrying US GDP. More and more analysts focusing on that topic. You may likes. T
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf OTB_Mar_04_2015_2.pdf   1.5 MB | 331 downloads
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #7,817
  • Mar 24, 2015 12:32pm Mar 24, 2015 12:32pm
Quoting StrayDog
Nasdaq is leading the way up... nice bull flag broken. ...
Easy come, easy go...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,818
  • Mar 24, 2015 12:36pm Mar 24, 2015 12:36pm
Like Alibaba, Youku Subject To SEC Probe

Bottom line: A new SEC probe into Youku Tudou's (NYSE:YOKU) accounting, following another probe into possible disclosure breaches by Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), could undermine investor confidence in big Chinese Internet firms.

That has always been an issue...
That BABA spike to $87 was sold hard.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,819
  • Mar 24, 2015 1:31pm Mar 24, 2015 1:31pm
Quoting StrayDog
That BABA spike to $87 was sold hard.
Been watching for BABA to dip under $80 & I might've spent some margin to sell puts against those $70 long puts, but....likely won't get down enough to make it worthwhile....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,820
  • Mar 24, 2015 1:54pm Mar 24, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Been watching for BABA to dip under $80 & I might've spent some margin to sell puts against those $70 long puts, but....likely won't get down enough to make it worthwhile....
Yeah, to far...
Took a loss today trying to short it, was late, tried to short a pullback, but it didn't go my way. Cut for a small loss.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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