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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #18,321
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:12am Mar 24, 2015 4:12am
Quoting Schickeria
{quote} This is my count on Daily. And you should know why i counted this not as 1-2-3-4-5 waves. (old discussion ) Black wxy in wave one has a retracement of y=138.2% this is for me very importand for counting (if wee see wave z) for the targets!!! for me crucial point is 1.0950 - 1.09538 for 1.0656 (minimum)area now. has been indicated here ---> http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post8149176 http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post8157882 Anyway i closed my shorts today nicely with round...

Hi Schickeria,

I do not know how many times I have read the EWP, but each time I find something what slipped my eyes beforehand, or does annoy me.


This time I found, that in a zigzag, wave A "ALMOST ALWAYS" develops as an impulse. Translation: in rare cases it may develop as zigzag or flat?

So when we look at the RULES of a flat, it states, that the B-wave has to retrace at least 90%.

OK, so now let us look for a RULE for the B-wave of a zigzag: there is no rule.

There is only a guideline which says, that a B wave "TYPICALLY" retraces between 10 and 79% of the wave A


WTF: so now we have no clue, in the end, if a correction unfolds as flat or as zigzag........


How can I have missed this one out all the years?

So looking at the EU chart:

from the low to the 1.10x high it was a three waves move, but the following retracement was not deep enough for a flat.


Conclusion:

may develop as a zigzag, where highest probability is, that wave A = wave C

or:

we get a complex WXY up


or:


leading diagonal up (but I rule this out, because most/nearly all LD's develop as impulses and not zigzag. Add to that: they are rare.
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  • #18,322
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:26am Mar 24, 2015 4:26am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Lets see when we see more improvements from the eurosone the euro will rise again. A word fra Dragi abouth less easing wil make the euro rally. QE keepts the interest rate low and end of QE makes it rise that is one of the issuses of QE. WE see it works end of QE3 the USD rise. Start og QE in the eurosone the euro declines. The big lines keep in shape. It is the daily ups and down that makes the diffeculty. And as you said you still think it is another wave down. I think so too due to the QE. In one way you think as a fudamentals because...
NOT!!!

Interesting i just read trough whole your post wanted to quote you that i agree with most of it, and then on last sentence you killed it
  • #18,323
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:37am Mar 24, 2015 4:37am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} NOT!!! Interesting i just read trough whole your post wanted to quote you that i agree with most of it, and then on last sentence you killed it


Why is the euro rising?
  • #18,324
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:43am Mar 24, 2015 4:43am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Why is the euro rising?
Do you think that the Euro is rising cause things in Europe are improving???
OK. Please, take a look at AU,NU, and USDCHF, and you will find the reason EU is rising. It's a USDX coreection.
  • #18,325
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:45am Mar 24, 2015 4:45am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Why is the euro rising?

A) simply a sentiment thing

B) market got the impression, that aunty Yellen was suddenly way more dovish than anticipated


See it this way:

when the FED starts to hike rates, it will kill a lot of the carry trade (take debt in USD, which is around 9 Trillion USD yet).

When people unwind this, it will be very positive for USD, because it will be in heavy need for a while. Put maybe the yield differential into it, too, if you like.


Market played this scenario and thought they would get the hike in Jul or Sep. Now it seems eventually end of the year.

The long USD bandwagon at the time was as long as it could get anyway. Only a few starting to reach for the exit caused a massive demand in Euros
  • #18,326
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:50am Mar 24, 2015 4:50am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} A) simply a sentiment thing B) market got the impression, that aunty Yellen was suddenly way more dovish than anticipated See it this way: when the FED starts to hike rates, it will kill a lot of the carry trade (take debt in USD, which is around 9 Trillion USD yet). When people unwind this, it will be very positive for USD, because it will be in heavy need for a while. Put maybe the yield differential into it, too, if you like. Market played this scenario and thought they would get the hike in Jul or Sep. Now it seems eventually end of...

I said months ago that it will be no rate hike in the US. I dont think it will be in september eighter.

I see the point with the carry trade as it is getting problems for many countries that have a loan in the USD.
At a certain moment US must change. The canot have this strong USD It is not good for their economy.
I still think Europe is improving. Wait and see.
The biggest problem is the QE
  • #18,327
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:53am Mar 24, 2015 4:53am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Schickeria, I do not know how many times I have read the EWP, but each time I find something what slipped my eyes beforehand, or does annoy me. This time I found, that in a zigzag, wave A "ALMOST ALWAYS" develops as an impulse. Translation: in rare cases it may develop as zigzag or flat? So when we look at the RULES of a flat, it states, that the B-wave has to retrace at least 90%. OK, so now let us look for a RULE for the B-wave of a zigzag: there is no rule. There is only a guideline which says,...
scratch that, my fault


The RULE for wave A of a zigzag is: always impulse or leading diagonal

The GUIDELINE is: almost always impulse (translation: only very seldomly leading diagonal)


Day saved
  • #18,328
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:53am Mar 24, 2015 4:53am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Do you think that the Euro is rising cause things in Europe are improving??? OK. Please, take a look at AU,NU, and USDCHF, and you will find the reason EU is rising. It's a USDX coreection.

The one thing that is strange The euro/CHF is declining although the euro is rising . 4% rise in the euro/USD 0% rise in the Euro/CHF
  • #18,329
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:00am Mar 24, 2015 5:00am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} The one thing that is strange The euro/CHF is declining although the euro is rising . 4% rise in the euro/USD 0% rise in the Euro/CHF
Don't look at the ECHF. Maybe is peged again, SNB in my opinion intervenes this pair, yet. To look at the power of USDX you can see USD/CAD too.
  • #18,330
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:01am Mar 24, 2015 5:01am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} I said months ago that it will be no rate hike in the US. I dont think it will be in september eighter. I see the point with the carry trade as it is getting problems for many countries that have a loan in the USD. At a certain moment US must change. The canot have this strong USD It is not good for their economy. I still think Europe is improving. Wait and see. The biggest problem is the QE

When it would be approving, would QE be warranted?

On the other hand: CB's have a great history in doing the wrong things. Best example is CB of Britain selling their Gold years ago prior to the lift of. Only one of many examples.

Question: what do the highly paid and educated central bankers get constantly wrong in their fundamental analyses?


Answer from an Elliottican:

they are only part of the herd!


It will be fun to watch the outcome of this all, wouldn't it, Marianne? Would be nice to fast forward the time.......
  • #18,331
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:09am Mar 24, 2015 5:09am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} When it would be approving, would QE be warranted? On the other hand: CB's have a great history in doing the wrong things. Best example is CB of Britain selling their Gold years ago prior to the lift of. Only one of many examples. Question: what do the highly paid and educated central bankers get constantly wrong in their fundamental analyses? Answer from an Elliottican: they are only part of the herd! It will be fun to watch the outcome of this all, wouldn't it, Marianne? Would be nice to fast forward the time.......
Economic Sciences is like Ellioticians. You put four in one room , and they will get out from the room with seven conclussions.
  • #18,332
  • Edited 5:30am Mar 24, 2015 5:19am | Edited 5:30am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} When it would be approving, would QE be warranted? On the other hand: CB's have a great history in doing the wrong things. Best example is CB of Britain selling their Gold years ago prior to the lift of. Only one of many examples. Question: what do the highly paid and educated central bankers get constantly wrong in their fundamental analyses? Answer from an Elliottican: they are only part of the herd! It will be fun to watch the outcome of this all, wouldn't it, Marianne? Would be nice to fast forward the time.......
The central banks looks at the technical side and the statistic which make them look at a very limited side of a complex matter I think.
What is happening out there shows the improvements coming. I am humble abouth saying things are improving in the eurosone knowing we have to good representatives here saying it is not.
The most important is to what is coming in the future and I think it is positive and we start to see it in the inflation figures uenployment,housing market etc.
I would have gone long euro now if it wasent for the QE. W By saying QE is a problem I mean jugding the direction of the euro. QE shouldmake the euro decline allot
I think the central bank can change their mind if the figures are improving. Too low euro can also be a problem with rising prices. The eurosone import more than they eksport and that is also a problem. IT is the export countries that should have a very low currency.
They speak abouth QE to september 2016. I do not think it will last that long. QE were decided at an realy stage before any improvemnts were seen.
The central banks keep the euro too strong in 2008 and made big damages they are trying to repair now

Look at the YEN after the QE one straight down

Strange days in Noway we see the housing prices rise 10% per year. Oilprices have declined 50%.

Since 2008 the houseprices have risen 50% in Oslo. We can not have a situation where the prices in south of Europe only declines while in the north only rises.
People put money into realestate market because they do not know where to put their money
  • #18,333
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:48am Mar 24, 2015 5:48am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} The one thing that is strange The euro/CHF is declining although the euro is rising . 4% rise in the euro/USD 0% rise in the Euro/CHF
Yup i made and posted same observation on EU thread. Its not strange though. Simple answer: strong CHF. Predicting strong CHF was not really hard thing to do after we topped out correction, and as you can see not even rising EUR can pull up ECHF, which means there is huge pressure on SNB. Now also mind that this is now without rising rates in air for USD, once EUR starts rolling, SNB will be forced to heavily cut or go capital controls. Mark my words. Longing ahead of every SNB meeting makes sense, its not risk free though, if you go stronger positions and if there is no cut market could dump on dissapointment so SL is needed well in place.
Optionally SNB could also probably refloor it at 1 (even though they said 1.1 is what they want, but thats impossible without cuts), which means that there could be another big hammer event on CHF pair droping 500 pips like nothing. So overall CHF pairs are still great risk ye, but reflooring is less likely to happen probably.
  • #18,334
  • Mar 24, 2015 5:55am Mar 24, 2015 5:55am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Economic Sciences is like Ellioticians. You put four in one room , and they will get out from the room with seven conclussions.

if it were only seven


But as an Elliottican you know when your count will be invalidated. But a Fundamental Analyst will try to arrange the facts in order to be right


Na, not starting a war between FA, TA or EW.Combine them, and one may have either a solution or a bigger hole
  • #18,335
  • Mar 24, 2015 6:02am Mar 24, 2015 6:02am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} The central banks looks at the technical side and the statistic which make them look at a very limited side of a complex matter I think. What is happening out there shows the improvements coming. I am humble abouth saying things are improving in the eurosone knowing we have to good representatives here saying it is not. The most important is to what is coming in the future and I think it is positive and we start to see it in the inflation figures uenployment,housing market etc. I would have gone long euro now if it wasent for the QE. W By...

Housing also is an equation of supply and demand.

We are in many countries in a situation, where people can not longer afford to buy houses, or even to be able to find appartements/houses to rent which they can afford.

So chances should be high even in Norway (especially with dropping Oil prices), that the bubble in housing prices will deflate.



BTW: planning a Norway trip this summer/autumn. Best places for Moskito-free living? Nothing scares me more than the sound of a Moskito
  • #18,336
  • Mar 24, 2015 8:18am Mar 24, 2015 8:18am
Quoting Forexcube
PO EURUSD, Short @ 1.1017 (DR2), (1 Lot / 10-K-Acc.), if so.
#18'302

1.1017 was triggered.
Exit @ 1.0925, +92
Profit: +920.-$
  • #18,337
  • Mar 24, 2015 8:22am Mar 24, 2015 8:22am
#18'301
...& warten auf den grossen Ausverkauf.
Der Euro wird seine Talfahrt wieder aufnehmen mssen.
FXcube
  • #18,338
  • Mar 24, 2015 11:31am Mar 24, 2015 11:31am
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Short-Term Gains & Long-Term Disaster
Submitted by http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...50323_fake.png
It’s time for the Japanese to get seriously scared now. Like many other countries, Japan – and its political class – creates a false image of enduring prosperity by letting its central bank increasingly buy up ever more of its sovereign bonds. It’s a total sleight of hand, there is nothing left that’s real. There’s no there there. This is of course the same as what happens in Europe. And it’s precisely because central banks buy up all these bonds, that their yields scrape the gutter. It’s a blueprint for killing off the last bit of actual functionality in an economy.
  • #18,339
  • Mar 24, 2015 12:19pm Mar 24, 2015 12:19pm
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...-Recovery.aspx

A Very Weak Economic Recovery
  • #18,340
  • Mar 24, 2015 1:45pm Mar 24, 2015 1:45pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Housing also is an equation of supply and demand. We are in many countries in a situation, where people can not longer afford to buy houses, or even to be able to find appartements/houses to rent which they can afford. So chances should be high even in Norway (especially with dropping Oil prices), that the bubble in housing prices will deflate. BTW: planning a Norway trip this summer/autumn. Best places for Moskito-free living? Nothing scares me more than the sound of a Moskito

Havent seen a mosito in Norway for years but maybe if you are planning to visit more sump areas
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