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  • #21,181
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:02am Mar 23, 2015 9:02am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} We might see 1.0940-1.0950 but stops should be at 1.1050. If 1.1050 holds 1.0620 is the target. But..we will see. It is a counter trend at no more then 0.3 % overall risk is recommended.
wold like to see your opinion on the speak of draghi T
Scalping
  • #21,182
  • Mar 23, 2015 9:28am Mar 23, 2015 9:28am
Quoting egkid
{quote} I insist to my view will take this risk sell limit@0971 SL 30 pip
  • #21,183
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:18am Mar 23, 2015 10:18am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} We might see 1.0940-1.0950 but stops should be at 1.1050. If 1.1050 holds 1.0620 is the target. But..we will see. It is a counter trend at no more then 0.3 % overall risk is recommended.
+60 now
  • #21,184
  • Edited 11:46pm Mar 23, 2015 3:45pm | Edited 11:46pm
Quoting egkid
Was examine week close and what chart says I smell and sense manipulation happen on Friday "Center bank doing something fishy" Looks to me something extreme going to happen! any way all take care , for me watch till deny or confirm my doubt
PS: keep an eye on 1.0722 VERY Interested to know/ 097x can hit next week and drop from it if so they will lead me to big conclusion
0970 hit let's watch the Game
  • #21,185
  • Mar 24, 2015 1:59am Mar 24, 2015 1:59am
Quoting egkid
{quote} 0970 hit let's watch the Game
Quoting egkid
{quote} It's looks bullish but totally bears in control so far A trending market ends when price begins to auction back and forth between two known reference points "And it is now" put ur reference points and check pa" At least to my Ref points
thought to share this info:
In a bracket, both the other timeframe buyer and seller become
responsive parties. As price nears the top of the perceived bracket, the
seller responds and auctions price downward through the bracket or
equilibrium range. In turn, the responsive buyer enters and rotates price
back to the upside. This bracketing process indicates that the market is in
balance and waiting for more information.
  • #21,186
  • Mar 24, 2015 3:58am Mar 24, 2015 3:58am
Quoting egkid
{quote} {quote} thought to share this info: In a bracket, both the other timeframe buyer and seller become responsive parties. As price nears the top of the perceived bracket, the seller responds and auctions price downward through the bracket or equilibrium range. In turn, the responsive buyer enters and rotates price back to the upside. This bracketing process indicates that the market is in balance and waiting for more information.
U were right EG. As i analysed 0970 also, there were some serious sellers. The price indeed went to 0970 and then was sold towards 0900. 70 pipper possible on intraday, its definitely good.
  • #21,187
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:25am Mar 24, 2015 4:25am
EUR/USD moving strongly, 1.098 seems like it may be good to short now?

Desperately want EUR to weaken, particularly against the USD so the Dax can lift to new levels.
  • #21,188
  • Mar 24, 2015 4:48am Mar 24, 2015 4:48am
Quoting PariCovek
EUR/USD moving strongly, 1.098 seems like it may be good to short now? Desperately want EUR to weaken, particularly against the USD so the Dax can lift to new levels.
i did advocate a good short at 1.0970 zone. Was good for some 60 pips ( 1.0940 also ). Fading the strength is a good option but stops should be higher. ( 1.1050 suggested ). Although the price rejected from 0970 and stopped at 0900.

GBPNZD is one of the pairs with highest ATR and it tends to be very fast moving. Its currently in downtrend and we should pay attention to 2 possible points of confluence where it might react. After the stop candle has been formed the pair fell towards L3 zone. Now we can see that MACD signifies bearish trend but that retracement may happen soon. 1.9600-1.9615 ( H3, DPP, 38.2 ) is the first zone where the price might react. In the case of deeper pullback the price might test 1.9666-1.9686 zone ( Breakout-retest/historical sellers, H4 , 50.0 ) and be rejected from the zone. Targets for GBPNZD is 1.9450, 1.9365 ( L4) and if it breaks 1.9310 projected channel bottom.

Beacause GBPNZD has big ATR, its always advised to wait for a pullback before any trades are taken.

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  • #21,189
  • Mar 24, 2015 7:48am Mar 24, 2015 7:48am
Huge moves in EUR. Another drop from 0970 then bounce. Stop grabber on both sides.
  • #21,190
  • Mar 24, 2015 8:34am Mar 24, 2015 8:34am
Quoting T@rantula
Huge moves in EUR. Another drop from 0970 then bounce. Stop grabber on both sides.
Keep dropping EUR. Pump the Dax to the heavens.
  • #21,191
  • Mar 24, 2015 8:38am Mar 24, 2015 8:38am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Keep dropping EUR. Pump the Dax to the heavens.
Break of 0940-0820-0710
  • #21,192
  • Mar 25, 2015 12:50am Mar 25, 2015 12:50am
Quoting kalyan
{quote} Break of 0940-0820-0710
EURUSD:
Trapped in a triangle and showing bullish moves without breaking the FOMC high. 0940 broke and resisting the price. But today could confirm the short term direction. I am bearish with target of 0710. But if it attacks 1090,1350 is next.
  • #21,193
  • Mar 25, 2015 7:59am Mar 25, 2015 7:59am
As you remember i stated yesterday that 0970 was indeed good for selling. Sell setup came in and the pair went down to 0900. It failed to close below so i will stay side lined for EURUSD at the moment. It might test yesterday high.
  • #21,194
  • Mar 25, 2015 8:07am Mar 25, 2015 8:07am
Pay attention to USDCAD. Sell into rallies towards 1.2550 is recommended. The pair needs to close below 1.2465 for further continuation towards 1.2380.
  • #21,195
  • Edited 4:24am Mar 26, 2015 4:02am | Edited 4:24am
Quoting T@rantula
Pay attention to USDCAD. Sell into rallies towards 1.2550 is recommended. The pair needs to close below 1.2465 for further continuation towards 1.2380.
120 pips drop in USDCAD!
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  • #21,196
  • Mar 26, 2015 6:18am Mar 26, 2015 6:18am
waiting for GDP in the next 25 hours. GDP number will make sure the daily support will be the place for bounce or break. USD kicked so hard in this 2 weeks
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  • #21,197
  • Mar 26, 2015 6:32am Mar 26, 2015 6:32am
For those that trade Equities Indices:

There has been some volatile moves overnight, particularly in the US SP500 and Dow Jones, causing most Equities Indices to drop substantially today.

US Equities
Currently, there is a risk off mentality given potential for US Fed Res Bank potentially increasing central bank rate. As a result, investors may shift from equities to fixed income. In addition, US Equities are not that cheap, in fact the Average PE ratio is >19.4 (as you can see its near bubble territory: http://www.multpl.com/) and this is historically quite high valuation.

SP500 has never gone beyond 7 calendar years without a correction. Guess what - we are in the 7th calendar year!

I'm not saying it will correct, but there is certainly some investor nervousness about a correction being on the cards.

Europe - German Equities
European Equities markets have performed strongly this year, particularly the Dax. The Dax has returned 23% since in Jan 2015! This is largely due to risk-on strategies in Europe, as ECB buy the Bonds, most investors are moving from Fixed Interest to Equities in order to chase returns. Also, as central bank rates are so low in Europe (some are even negative rates), it forces investors to move funds fro Fixed Interest into risky investments (Eg Equities).

The Dax has a great manufacturing sector, which will thrive with a cheaper EUR, cheaper commodities, cheaper credit, causing their exports to rise and Forward Earnings to bolster. German Banks have limited exposure to Greek Debt. Also, there are no natural resources players in the Dax, so commodities price risk only affects the manufacturing sector as an input cost.

The Average PE on the Dax is 16.2, which is much cheaper than SP500 (19.4), and it became apparent during NY sessions, that buying activity on the Dax was very strong, pumping the Index to new levels during NY sessions.

Interesting risks on the Dax at present is two things now:
1. EUR strength, USD weakening - this reduces Forward Earnings on German Manufacturers/Exporters (in the Dax), it also raises the cost for US investors buying into the Dax, it also reduces foreign income on German multinational companies.
2. Rising commodities prices - this also reduces Forward Earnings on German Manufacturers/Exporters (in the Dax).

The Dax is being sold off as result of US Equities being sold off, plus the above risks, and also due to some profit taking from its incredible gains thus far this year.

I have a longer-term target of 12,600pts for the Dax later this year, which will bring its Avg PE ratio to a historical fair value average of 17.5.
Currently the Dax is 11,680pts. This is potentially a 1000pip trade over the medium term, however, please note, I think we may see some more downside to the Dax in the short-term.
  • #21,198
  • Mar 26, 2015 7:54am Mar 26, 2015 7:54am
Quoting T@rantula
{quote} 120 pips drop in USDCAD! {image}
got 20 thank´s T
Scalping
  • #21,199
  • Mar 26, 2015 8:04am Mar 26, 2015 8:04am
USD initial jobless claims came better then expected and that put the pair into retracement mode in NY session. Prior to that, USD experienced a strong sell off because of that USDCAD dropped perfectly following the techs. DAX was also down 2 % and US equities were pretty high and it needed a correction. That also lead to drop in USDCAD pair. Now we see a retracement in the form of V shape reversal and 119.20-119.40 region might give a resistance. There is a confluence of previous buyers/now moment sellers, 61.8, L3 and intra week trendline. Little below the level is also a confluence of L4 and 50.0 (119.14) though on V shape reversal, price might jump higher breaking that first l4/50.0 confluence. Anyway it should react at that particular level before coming to POC zone. That could be a another signal for a short towards daily lows at 118.40 which might happen later.

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  • #21,200
  • Mar 26, 2015 8:18am Mar 26, 2015 8:18am
Quoting PariCovek
For those that trade Equities Indices: There has been some volatile moves overnight, particularly in the US SP500 and Dow Jones, causing most Equities Indices to drop substantially today. US Equities Currently, there is a risk off mentality given potential for US Fed Res Bank potentially increasing central bank rate. As a result, investors may shift from equities to fixed income. In addition, US Equities are not that cheap, in fact the Average PE ratio is >19.4 (as you can see its near bubble territory: http://www.multpl.com/) and this...
Excellent fundamental analysis. Well done, keep it coming!
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