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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #1,121
  • Mar 20, 2015 7:06am Mar 20, 2015 7:06am
Market is very quiet right now. Yen pairs seem to be slowly climbing as if there was no resistance. AUDJPY smacked right against 92 and it has been slowly changing his mind ever since, well see what happens. AN still undecided. I'm looking at EN, GN, and NY.

Why did you bail out of UC?
  • #1,122
  • Mar 20, 2015 7:41am Mar 20, 2015 7:41am
Quoting saunga2nd3
Thanks both for the good advice. Yes Tom, I believe volatility is still on the crazy side so we have to give the trades room to breathe. I'm sticking to my guns and leave the stops where I initially set them, that's around 2% of capital only on 1/3 of my position. I will move the stop only when it goes far enough that I can add another position or TP on the first position and enter another one so I can withstand a deeper pullback on my initial setup. The idea is to keep adding and I'm not too concern with TP however. I'm still trying to work...
Hi Saunga,

I think it is a mistake not to think about TP. Never forget: if you do not take profits, you can never win in this game. I am also angry at myself when I take profit and I see I could have made a lot more. On the other hand no profit taking means no money on the first place. If you only have SL set then you can only lose. Grav had some thoughts on this already but everyone has to decide on his own profit levels.

Were just my thoughts,

IBO
  • #1,123
  • Mar 20, 2015 9:47am Mar 20, 2015 9:47am
... So, here is an example of multichart USD reversal. Dunno if it is really gonna reverse coz momentum against me, but bought USD king across more pairs. Greens are monthly. Aussie +- hit, GU hit, EU broke. H1 not closed, is a wannabe signal, but start is start eh? Sometimes even wicks enter the game.
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"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,124
  • Mar 20, 2015 10:17am Mar 20, 2015 10:17am
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Hi Saunga, I think it is a mistake not to think about TP. Never forget: if you do not take profits, you can never win in this game. I am also angry at myself when I take profit and I see I could have made a lot more. On the other hand no profit taking means no money on the first place. If you only have SL set then you can only lose. Grav had some thoughts on this already but everyone has to decide on his own profit levels. Were just my thoughts, IBO
Yes, you're absolutely right. But my positions have not moved enough for me to concern myself with profits, I was mainly thinking about the risk first. As trend continues we continue to add, we cash out some profits and leave some for the trend to carry. Move stops accordingly to cover risk and if price corrects, stops will take care of it and give us some more baby profits.

Joke aside, the hardest part for me here is the beginning, the initial entry. Profits are the least of my concerns because it's up to the market to follow thru. There's no point in worrying about something I have not control over.

Thanks for the good thoughts.

I'm on NZDJPY, EURNZD and GBPNZD, anybody else?
  • #1,125
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:03pm Mar 20, 2015 2:03pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
... So, here is an example of multichart USD reversal. Dunno if it is really gonna reverse coz momentum against me, but bought USD king across more pairs. Greens are monthly. Aussie +- hit, GU hit, EU broke. H1 not closed, is a wannabe signal, but start is start eh? Sometimes even wicks enter the game. {image} {image} {image}
Hi Tom,

I will be interested what Grav writes to this post. I guess you are an experienced trader but your entries go against basically all the rules Grav discussed. You tried to pick the exact point of the short-term reversals without any confirmation. I am not saying you will lose because you definitely are on the right side of long-term trends. I however burnt myself already with such strategy. What Grav discussed often is a more conservative but lot safer entry strategy where we will not win as much, but the risk is a lot less as we wait for a confirmation.

IBO
  • #1,126
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:06pm Mar 20, 2015 2:06pm
Quoting saunga2nd3
{quote} Yes, you're absolutely right. But my positions have not moved enough for me to concern myself with profits, I was mainly thinking about the risk first. As trend continues we continue to add, we cash out some profits and leave some for the trend to carry. Move stops accordingly to cover risk and if price corrects, stops will take care of it and give us some more baby profits. Joke aside, the hardest part for me here is the beginning, the initial entry. Profits are the least of my concerns because it's up to the market to follow thru....
Hi Saunga,

I am in GBPNZD and NZDCHF. I bought NZD. I do believe you also bought NZD however it is always good to write it down so we know 100% what you did. For example if Tom in his earlier posts havent written down that he bought USD, then I would have no idea what he did as the long-term and short-term trends are contradictory on those pairs.

Good luck,
IBO
  • #1,127
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:25pm Mar 20, 2015 2:25pm
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Hi Tom, I will be interested what Grav writes to this post. I guess you are an experienced trader but your entries go against basically all the rules Grav discussed. You tried to pick the exact point of the short-term reversals without any confirmation. I am not saying you will lose because you definitely are on the right side of long-term trends. I however burnt myself already with such strategy. What Grav discussed often is a more conservative but lot safer entry strategy where we will not win as much, but the risk is a lot less as we...
Nah, was a fackup entry, I admit, but I had full hands of other instruments. I have overcombined my portfolio and havent slept 30 hrs, dunno, its was prolly solar eclipse today giving me energy.

Anyway, am not trying to pick up precise point, am loading zones +-50 pips thick, catching weekly/monthly/daily moves and stops are varying in timeframes. But now I just simplified it and placed one SL, coz loaded many instruments on the same time - and I just trusted my numbers - I got signal, have opened like 50 positions in 10 minutes and move was too fast so I didnt count precisely SL and put the most "stable" one, counting more on portfolio diversification. But USD correction pulled all charts. See, am actually not that experienced. Also second point is, when loading first entry, I shoot hard... so, admit am not perfect.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,128
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:38pm Mar 20, 2015 2:38pm
Here you go simple Excel sheet to manage more pairs in more timeframes :
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
{quote} I have updated portfolio management *.xls, so here goes. Is still one way, sorry , but I believe you can adapt it to bias of your choice. Whole table is set for a default currency beeing USD. First collumns counted out in each portfolio list (EU, UJ, GJ,....) are "base currency". So should you wish to change direction of table, simply change columns for "base currency". Same applies if your account is denominated in something else than USD - yet again takes a small change in "base currency" count. For cross currencies, you gotta set spot...
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,129
  • Mar 20, 2015 4:51pm Mar 20, 2015 4:51pm
Hi G

I've been looking at how your money/risk management systems work out in comparison with my own, but I have to admit I've struggled a little to work the approach (The shortcomings are entirely my own), so I have a few questions if you would be so kind as to indulge me here and go over old material yet again.

I know that you are waiting for all to line up and then entering with the expectation of an early move in your direction. There are many ways this can be done so specifics not necessary however I presume you are entering after a retrace has occured on lower TFs and is turning back in the main trend direction? So this is the primary entry point. my confusion is where and on what basis your enter your second lot. Is this immediately that a trade goes 30-40 pips your way or do you wait for a dip/rally? what if a dip/rally doesn't happen? do you just enter lot 2 anyway? So what about stop placement? does stop 1 tighten to accomodate lot 2's stop thus maintaining a limit to account risk? or is account risk increasing with lot 2? I've noticed that sometimes you take lot 1 off before placing lot 3? so subsequent to lot 2 are you then adding according to distance moved in your direction and living with the retrace or waiting for the retrace then entering? I seem to have seen both alluded to at different points in this thread? what about the bank and replace approach? is the replacement immediate (colla. wash trade) or delayed for a better price possibilty? Again I seem to recall both alluded to? on what basis does this work?

Sorry to be a pain and many thanks

NB
  • #1,130
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:38pm Mar 20, 2015 6:38pm
Hey NB. Had a long day taking care of business out of town and I'm brain fried. I'll get back to your excellent questions after a bit of rest.

G
  • #1,131
  • Mar 22, 2015 10:31am Mar 22, 2015 10:31am
Quoting nbfx
Hi G I've been looking at how your money/risk management systems work out in comparison with my own, but I have to admit I've struggled a little to work the approach (The shortcomings are entirely my own), so I have a few questions if you would be so kind as to indulge me here and go over old material yet again. I know that you are waiting for all to line up and then entering with the expectation of an early move in your direction. There are many ways this can be done so specifics not necessary however I presume you are entering after a retrace...
NB, the entry isn't that critical, but if the very short tf's are moving against the trade, I will wait until they reverse. That usually happens within a few hours anyway, so I usually don't have to wait long. If I'm just barely in the range of placing another trade on, I may move down to the short timeframes and wait for a small retracement to occur and end. That just makes me a little more confident that I'm not entering right on a peak price. But if I'm well into the range of adding a new lot and price is moving with no sign of turning back, I'll just go ahead and throw a new lot on so I don't fall too far behind.

The preferred way to put the second lot on is to wait until the first lot is ahead 1X sl. Then take it off in profit and put the second one on with 1X sl. That then becomes the bottom lot on a long trade. That is then a free trade and there is no way to lose on the trade. It falls back to the concept of take care of your risk first, then make pips. The next lot (now the second) would be put on when the bottom is up 1Xsl. Both stops would be set to the entry of the bottom lot, so the trade is now running 2 lots and zero risk. Taking another lot off before putting on the third can lock in 1Xsl profit and cover the cost of one bad entry somewhere.

I will sometimes carry a little more risk in the trade, but I'll cap it at 1Xsl. That's just based on my confidence in the trade. Risk must be capped somewhere, and there is no need to risk more to run massive multi-lot trades when price is trending strongly, and if price isn't trending strongly we wouldn't want to take more risk. Please restate any questions I failed to answer.

G
  • #1,132
  • Mar 22, 2015 11:46am Mar 22, 2015 11:46am
Hi G.
Thank you for your answer and clarification.

I hadn't grasped the two-stage inital entry approach (2nd paid for by the first).

thanks
NB
  • #1,133
  • Edited 5:28am Mar 23, 2015 4:25am | Edited 5:28am
We are getting to an interesting position where the NZD is threatening to establish itself as a strong currency.

On the weekly chart, NZD against USD is showing a crossing of RSI 50, plus a fast EMA/slow SMA cross.

It looks pretty healthy across the board and its index has been going up for many months.

It has the highest base rate of any of the global currencies: 3.50%.

It is starting to look like a good bet against say EUR or CAD (especially EUR which remains relatively weak and is in crisis mode which means accidents are likely to happen and help any shorts at some point).

BUT - and this is a big but - the NZ Central Bank have said they see the NZD as overvalued. This makes me nervous. I might start trying NZD longs but will be very cautious.

What do you guys think?
  • #1,134
  • Mar 23, 2015 4:29am Mar 23, 2015 4:29am
Just to add, I'd be more comfortable being long NZD when it manages to really break above 0.76 against USD.
  • #1,135
  • Mar 23, 2015 7:20am Mar 23, 2015 7:20am
Quoting IBreakOut
{quote} Hi Saunga, I am in GBPNZD and NZDCHF. I bought NZD. I do believe you also bought NZD however it is always good to write it down so we know 100% what you did. For example if Tom in his earlier posts havent written down that he bought USD, then I would have no idea what he did as the long-term and short-term trends are contradictory on those pairs. Good luck, IBO
Yes IBO, I am short AUDNZD with 2 positions on it now. Long NZDJPY with 1 position and could enter the second one now. Short EURNZD with 1 position I could add another on it as well but I haven't and the swings are deep. GBPNZD got out @BE. The problem with the last two is the high volatility and you have to have the right pyramid structure to try to survive it.

Graviton, I'm wondering if the best volatility resistant strategy is the one you presented on post 1131. It seems to be the best to help the position prevail during deeper market retracement, or is it just mostly to cover risk?
  • #1,136
  • Mar 23, 2015 7:59am Mar 23, 2015 7:59am
Quoting saunga2nd3
{quote} Yes IBO, I am short AUDNZD with 2 positions on it now. Long NZDJPY with 1 position and could enter the second one now. Short EURNZD with 1 position I could add another on it as well but I haven't and the swings are deep. GBPNZD got out @BE. The problem with the last two is the high volatility and you have to have the right pyramid structure to try to survive it. Graviton, I'm wondering if the best volatility resistant strategy is the one you presented on post 1131. It seems to be the best to help the position prevail during deeper market...

Good observation and discussion! However you want to define it, the intrinsic volatility of some pairs is extremely high vs. others. GN Daily ATR is about 240 pips, compared to NCad of 94. Just to adjust for volatility you'd need to have 2.5 X the stop loss and spacing and you'd be looking for 2.5 X the profit.

The structure in post 1131 will prevent losses due to any reason, including intrinsic volatility, later in the course of the trade when multiple lots are trading and the most is at risk. Essentially, it reduces the overall risk of the trade to zero anytime multiple lots are running. You can't ask for much more than that. That is a very important improvement in trading method for risk control. It's a more conservative approach to a risky situation and in my own humble opinion that's the reason it's so highly effective.
  • #1,137
  • Edited 10:36am Mar 23, 2015 10:18am | Edited 10:36am
Quoting lemna
We are getting to an interesting position where the NZD is threatening to establish itself as a strong currency. On the weekly chart, NZD against USD is showing a crossing of RSI 50, plus a fast EMA/slow SMA cross. It looks pretty healthy across the board and its index has been going up for many months. It has the highest base rate of any of the global currencies: 3.50%. It is starting to look like a good bet against say EUR or CAD (especially EUR which remains relatively weak and is in crisis mode which means accidents are likely to happen and...
New Zealand has a population the size of Manchester and Birmingham combined. That is less than half that of say London or NYC. Only 4.5mil. This is a small economy. Add to that there is a large interest rate differential which shows little sign of getting smaller, and the economy while it could be better is 'healthy' by all comparative measures. My personal view is that RBNZ have little control where there currency goes and whilst Graeme Wheeler might wish for his currency to weaken he is at the back of the queue. The only thing he can do is to massively reduce rates and that would be damaging to the economy and ramp up unwanted levels of inflation.

my ten penworth.
  • #1,138
  • Mar 23, 2015 10:47am Mar 23, 2015 10:47am
Quoting lemna
We are getting to an interesting position where the NZD is threatening to establish itself as a strong currency. On the weekly chart, NZD against USD is showing a crossing of RSI 50, plus a fast EMA/slow SMA cross. It looks pretty healthy across the board and its index has been going up for many months. It has the highest base rate of any of the global currencies: 3.50%. It is starting to look like a good bet against say EUR or CAD (especially EUR which remains relatively weak and is in crisis mode which means accidents are likely to happen and...
I don't have all the details like you do, but seems to me the most important thing would be the intentions of the central bank and it would probably seem unwise for a trend trader to counteract.
  • #1,139
  • Mar 23, 2015 8:13pm Mar 23, 2015 8:13pm
Quoting saunga2nd3
{quote} I don't have all the details like you do, but seems to me the most important thing would be the intentions of the central bank and it would probably seem unwise for a trend trader to counteract.
Yes, it's very difficult to know what is really going on behind the scenes. I've seen central bankers reverse position without warning or just outright lie about what they were doing. In the end, if you are uncomfortable trading a pair for any reason, don't trade it. I've found that if you just trade the trend, somehow you usually find yourself on the right side of things.
  • #1,140
  • Mar 25, 2015 12:38am Mar 25, 2015 12:38am
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