FOMC trade

thats what i thought. Thanx man

Here's something to read while you wait.

8/8/2006 02:00 am: EUR/$..1.2821 $/JPY..115.20 GBP/$..1.9058 $/CHF..1.2267 AUD/$..0.7616 $/CAD..1.1189

Dollar Consolidates before Fed Decision by Yan Xu

02:00AM E-12 Germany Current Account Balance (exp 7.9 bln euros, prev 4.3 bln euros) Japan July Machinery Orders (prev 11.0%) 06:00AM E-12 Germany June Industrial Production y/y (exp 5.1%, prev 5.9%) Germany June Industrial Production m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 1.5%) 08:30AM US Q2 Unit Labor Costs (exp 3.6%, prev 1.6%) US Q2 Non-Farm Productivity (exp 0.9%, prev 3.7%) Canada June Building Permits m/m (exp -0.2%, prev 6.9%) 02:15PM US FOMC Monetary Policy Announcement (exp 5.25%, prev 5.25%)

After slight rebound from steep losses on last Friday¡¦s disappointing employment report, the dollar is trading steadily against other major currencies before the Fed declares its monetary policy decision this afternoon.

Though a Fed rate hike pause is widely expected, the Fed Chairman Bernanke is likely to deliver a pretty hawkish statement after the meeting. The pause has already been fully priced in the market, therefore any hawkish statement, such as the Fed is willing to resume rate hike on any sign of rising inflation risks, would give the greenback a boost.

Interest-rate futures showed traders are pricing in only 20 percent chance the Fed will lift its benchmark rate by 25 basis point today. However, traders see a 71 percent chance of a quarter-point increase to 5.5 percent by the end of September. We do not rule out the likelihood of another rate hike by year end even the Fed keeps the rates unchanged on today¡¦s meeting.

EURUSD will face key resistance at 1.2830 and 1.2850. Additional ceilings will emerge at 1.2880, backed by 1.29, 1.2910 and 1.2950. Support starts at 1.28 and 1.2770. Subsequent floors are eyed at 1.2750, followed by 1.27, 1.2670 and 1.2640.

Sterling - The Biggest Winner

Sterling has strengthened across the board since the Bank of England unexpectedly lifted interest rates last week. The pound rose to an eight-year peak against the yen, fifteen-month high against the dollar, and eight-month peak against the euro. We are looking to the BoE quarterly inflation report due on Wednesday to gauge UK¡¦s inflation outlook. Also we could find more clues from the BoE policy meeting minutes due on Aug 16 which shows how many members vote for the rate increase.

CAD Gains as Oil Surges

Crude oil futures shot above $77 per barrel after BP said it was shutting down Alaska¡¦s Prudhoe Bay field, the largest oil field in the U.S., after discovering severe corrosion along a transit line. The high oil price helps the Canadian dollar strengthen against the dollar. The greenback fell to the one-month low near 1.1170 versus the loonie.

The report came out about a min earily and this threw me off a little. Only got about +15 pips.

Did you guys notice the number came only a little early?

I managed to profit only 5 pips... I did not closed it when it peaked!

Managed to get +30 pips on drop of GBP/USD after spike up.

91 pips in 5 mins. happy days.

I knew they would raise look at those bars on the 5min nuts... +65 pips open profit short off the inverted hammer. nice bull squeeze potentially let see ...

I knew they wouldnt raise look at those bars on the 5min nuts... +65 pips open profit short off the inverted hammer. nice bull squeeze potentially let see ...

$5200 in 10 min yeah baby/////////////////////////////////////

damn awesome

i did 40 pips met my $$ goal

on to tommorrow

holy crap look at that whipsaw on cable!


congratulations to the profitable, and condolences to the whipsawed.

boy am i glad i stayed out

whats goin on?...my head spinning!!

yeah man this is ugly...

Super hero , I stayed out , strange market react before the news 30 sec !

interesting how macd is flat even though we had that huge spike.... almost like theres no steam there...

made 10 pips. i'll take it given the whipsaw action.

It did arrive 2:14:11 and almost a minute earlier....

Interesting strategies you all have... you all anticipated it will fizzle out.. how did you come up with that decision?

91 pips , how you got them Strange !

Straddled the USD/JPY and nailed the short for 45 pips!!

in and out of eur/usd 47 pips with massive leverage lol

watched live coverage on cnbc, they announced it, i bolted upstairs... by that time it was going going gone. good thing i had entry in place, made 20 pips from that. then the whipsaw triggered my SHORT trade at 2820... that screwed me over. then i decided to have some fun and put in like 50k and 80k (on mini) in shorts and longs. ended w/ 47 pips net positive.

man gotta love these demo accts