The Club!

Hi Lavanda,

the high was around 1040 on Netdania, on Dukascopy I had 1035.

There is no need about to be religious with EXACT levels. I had this discussion over and over with Schickeria. Sometimes EXACT fib-levels are hit, other times not (undershoot/overshoot).

There is simply nowhere in the world scientific proof that fib-levels have to work, not to speak about "hits to the pip". When there would be such kind of "need" in the fibs, some clever programmer or multi-billion banks would have been able to decode the "secret" and would be headed to world domination.

Use fibs as guiding light and take them with a grain of salt.




Regarding the shown count:

the structure should develop a WXY pattern.

Let me ask you a question: how can one know beforehand a WXY structure?

Let me explain: a WXY is ABC-ABC-ABC

But a Flat would be ABC-ABC-1-2-3-4-5


So the advice is to first try to count simple structures, and eventually switch to more complex when there is need.


Same with triangles lately:

in the past few months I have seen so many counts which suggested triangles, although only wave A and B was visible



But back to the count:

all in all I am in the same scenario. Structure may get more comlex and time consuming, since wave 2 was short and simple.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Vladimir Putin Proposes "Eurasian" Currency Union

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
5 Things To Ponder: What Hath The Fed Wrought


well, very interesting in light of what we discussed about the FED to hike rates or not

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Which European National Central Bank Is Most Likley To Become Insolvent, And What Happens Then?

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
"Market Is Hyper Overpriced" Warns Retiring Fed President; "Significiant Correction" Coming

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Recent Economic Data Shows the Good Side of Deflation

http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdat...-in-Sight.aspx

Crude Oil: Is the Price Low Even in Sight?

The Euro’s Going Down. If It Doesn’t Go Up.


very nice reading


especially: Goldman predicts 0.80 at end of 2017, but sees fir value at 1.20

Looks like things are getting seriously out of hand for globalists, whole Asia slipping out of US empire grasp. However that doesnt mean i am in support of this union, best to keep countries separated and small, but then on other hand when you have empire trying to take control over you passively only way to stop is is by merge. Gaul tribes merged together to have any chance stoping Romans, they know otherwise it would go bad. They merged even though they hated eachother. Asia is pretty much the same structure (Russia-China,Thai-China,Vietnam-China,Japan-China,Mongolia-China,India-Pakistan...).

Oke, I try to do some simple analysis from 1st (2014) video:

Christine mention about 7 miserable year that will follow with 7 strong year.


If we relate that statement with the strength of USD,
then we might have come to conclusion that probably USD will continue strong/strengthen at least for 6 year to come (we already passed 1 year since).

Well, I guess EU will not rise (if it rise) above 1.21.

omg, what a day.

Today I ski-mountaineered. I thought weather wise it was safe. Oh man, how wrong I was. Suddenly I was surrounded by the thickest fog one can can have.

It was 1 and a half hour up for me, but 3 and a half down. Visibility was around 1-2 meters max.

Glad to be home again

Yes, strong USD. She also mentions whole economical war going onto Russia Venezuela and Iran and basically reconfirms that Oil price will/should stay at current PA for long. Other than that not much in speech.

Also notice that she used the word "Strong" instead of "Healthy, Fortune, Prosper, Flourish, Recovery" etc.

Be safe buddy! take good care of yourself
regards.

Considering pictures of his climbing i dont think thats the problem. Its like warning spider to be careful walking on his net.

AndexQ yeh i noticed that.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-0...rkel-acropolis

Getting a bit ridiculus eh. This looks like bread and games scenario in play. When in hole execute it and divert internal attention from bad economical situation.

BTC meanwhile tech point down:
http://prntscr.com/6jjlec
Currently bank runs in Greece are not lifting price, quite wierd compared to Cyprus which is much smaller yet had significant impact on its price.

Btw priceaction would love to see you post your analysis maybe on this thread or elsewhere, noticed you have very solid trading, there is your own diary thread but i am assuming its not meant really for replys of others. Would be nice to share some.

Hi Marianne,

I just came across the following study. Very interesting to read. Is Housing the Business Cycle? Evidence from U.S. Cities

https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2009/2009-007.pdf


Here is the conclusion:

6 Conclusions
We assessed the robustness of the relationship between housing and employment over the
business cycle in a set of 51 U.S. cities. In most of the cities we considered, we found permits
to be a good leading indicator of employment. Perhaps because of the disparate business
cycle experiences of the cities, however, this relationship failed to hold across the board. We
also fi…nd that national permits are a better leading indicator for MSA employment than a
city’s own permits. Housing prices, on the other hand, are not a good leading indicator for
employment at either the national or the MSA level.
These results stand in some contrast to the previous literature linking housing to busi-
ness cycles. At the national level, housing appears to be an important driver of cyclical
‡fluctuations. If this causality truly held, we would expect the link to be preserved at the
MSA level, as housing spillovers into business cycle indicators (e.g., employment) should
remain localized. This may be especially important to verify at the local level in light of
fi…ndings by Del Negro and Otrok (2007) and others that housing shocks are primarily local
phenomena. Our results, however, appear at odds with the fi…nding that there exists a direct
channel (whether it be wealth effects or housing capital effects) from local housing markets
into local employment.
Our results should not, however, be seen as evidence that there is no relationship between
housing prices and employment over the business cycle. Clearly, theoretical models such
as Davis and Heathcote (2005) illustrate that there is a relationship. However the lack of
consistency in the relationship at the city-level suggests that the relationship may be more
complicated than simple causal stories wherein a rise in house prices raises wealth, leads
16

households to consume more, and then leads to an economic expansion. Furthermore, the
extent to which we …find frequency-dependence in the relationships suggests that increases in
house prices may have a different impact in the short term than in the long term. Finally,
our results do not address the question of whether or not housing should play a role in
the formulation of monetary policy: We examine only empirical linkages between housing
markets and recessions and leave the question of modelling optimal monetary policy in the
presence of housing for future research.
While housing played a pivotal role in the recession beginning in December 2007, our
…findings suggest caution in assuming that future recessions will …t the current pattern. The
diversity we …find across cities in the relationship between housing and employment –in many
cities, a rise in permits and especially house prices appears to be associated with a subsequent
decline in employment –is further evidence that, as Temin (1998) fi…nds, business cycles are
tremendously diverse.

How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance?

https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-063.pdf

This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance for the central banks
of four countries: New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the United States. We test
whether forward guidance improved market participants’ ability to forecast future
short-term and long-term rates. We find that forward guidance improved market
participants’ ability to forecast short-term rates over relatively short forecast
horizons, but only for Norway and Sweden. Importantly, there is no evidence that
forward guidance has increased the efficacy of monetary policy for New Zealand,
the country with the longest history of forward guidance.

Maybe the central bankers have lost the ability to communicate in a language that anyone is able to understand. Will I wonder about people not understanding me, if I sound like a mixture of an oracle, a schizophrenic and Cassandra?

The Unusual Behavior of the
Federal Funds Rate and Treasury Yields:
A Conundrum or an Instance of Goodhart’s Law?

Daniel L. Thornton


Working Paper 2007-039D
http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2007/2007-039.pdf