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You do not know how to trade

  • #121
  • Mar 20, 2015 4:50am Mar 20, 2015 4:50am
The only bottom line in this business is the profit and losses.

Until he can show his track record, I think anyone who believes in this nonsense must be plain crazy.
Life only tastes good when you eat what you kill.
  • #122
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:07am Mar 20, 2015 6:07am
Traders want to complicate things more than they are because of the human nature and because chasing a system that will not ever lose a trade; i should say this again that there is not a system that is profiting in trading and all other are losing but it is important the strong and weak points of a system; some traders like to make lots of losing trades and a few large big ones; other traders like to see their account down by 30% or 80% sometimes and then come back to profits; it is different with each trading system and each trader trading that system if he like it or not.
In my last post i start to define the basic by following the trend above or below an open day price or a 1440 moving average; let complicate things in order to see the most simple things and change view on the market
http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...psrzz8w8yl.jpg
This is the 1440 moving average on a eurusd chart; above there is buy and below there is sell; now lets put on the same chart another moving average of 60 and see if something change when you look at chart

http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...psbi6szmj6.jpg

It complicate things and still it made chart simpler to trade but as trader we can not base the trade in the market just on moving average.
To trade profitable we have to account for more faces or dimensions of the market when we enter a trade.
  • #123
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:14am Mar 20, 2015 6:14am
Observe the chart i post above and price around the moving average lines; as i have said in the begining the price will come back to the same point some time in the future; price is also attracted by to the lines of moving average; when the price escapes the line attraction it is more easy to continue and shoot out making a larger move than when coming toward the line as the average is acting like an attractor; the problem is that market is complex and by adding more and more moving average lines we will complicate the market and will never reach a profitable trading but we will distance the trader more and more from what is a profitable trading experience.
  • #124
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:24am Mar 20, 2015 6:24am
I do have no doubt that a moving average could be traded by some traders; and that fibonacci or suport and resistance the same can be traded by some traders but they are representing just faces of the market depends from where you look at the market and that is why they fail more times in trading than necesary.
I have not count the times price cross the lines of moving average and the times it is rejected by the lines but they should be almost an equal number and that is why we need in trading to add something else and something complicated; traders complicate trading and not the other way around; price give us the most important information we need every minute or better every order that shows in the chart because sometimes just one order will make the difference in trading and changing the market conditions; price give us the open, close, high and low and this is very important; think of how you will trade with no charts and only price.
  • #125
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:33am Mar 20, 2015 6:33am
Quoting mark72
I do have no doubt that a moving average could be traded by some traders; and that fibonacci or suport and resistance the same can be traded by some traders but they are representing just faces of the market depends from where you look at the market and that is why they fail more times in trading than necesary. I have not count the times price cross the lines of moving average and the times it is rejected by the lines but they should be almost an equal number and that is why we need in trading to add something else and something complicated; traders...

Hmmmmmm Maybe in the Long side (buys) we can see For example:

1.- Open: 0 High: 3 L:1 Close: 2
2.- Open: 2 High: 5 L: 2 Close: 4
3.- Open: 4 High: 4 L: 1 Close: 3
4.- Open 3 High: 9 L: 1 Close: 7
5.- Open: 7 High: 14 L:7 Close: 13

Hahahah i have like 24 hrs without sleep but maybee think about that??? 1,2,3 price its ranging and then the price break up to long and u should put the table in ur stomach and then surf the wave???? I dont know what i already said but im going to post it anyway...
  • #126
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:41am Mar 20, 2015 6:41am
Every chart i post i do not pick to be trend or range and to be easy for me or for you because if you want to trade profitable you know or must know that is not easy but it is not hard, so i give you a chart from today also eurusd and look only at the period A and period B and not the large move down as it is to easy:

http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...psdksabcnc.jpg

I do not want you to tell me to post in the thread but you have to understand for yourself and see the reality and the way you are trading at this moment; what would you trade period A or period B?; which one is better for you as a trader to see in the market A or B?; where would you lose by the rules of your trading?; where would you gain by the rules of your trading? would you be in the market or not in those periods?

Add on: if it is easier for you the chart is eurusd 1 minute; you can look at any time frame with almost similar conditions and any pair; must not forget that market is the same and will be.
  • #127
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:56am Mar 20, 2015 6:56am
Hello Mark,

According to my rules (dont show all of them only a ma):

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM1.jpg Size: 95 KB


Its probably not that you want to see, but thats my rules
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #128
  • Mar 20, 2015 7:06am Mar 20, 2015 7:06am
Please do not post in the thread as an answer to my chart to keep the thread clean; it is just for you to see how you trade now and to be able to realize on the way and at the end what change and how your view is change of the market.
I am not in a position to decide if your trading is good or bad; only you know if you make profits every month and can live on that or make a better life and nobody can say that you don't know how to trade if you make money every month from trading; market decide if your trading is good or bad and it shows to you in the most hard way on your profits month after month; you will see there every little mistake you make or every little good thing you do in trading; i repeat i post here not for the traders that have profits but for the traders who want to trade better for them in a very complex market.
  • #129
  • Mar 20, 2015 7:15am Mar 20, 2015 7:15am
Now you must know and i repeat myself again and you will see it everywhere on forex websites or brokers that past performance is not a proof of what will come in the market; this is a truth; the way you trade must be something so general and so basic and so to the point that will take in consideration the "random" part of the market to come; a rigid trading system based on the past history will never be reliable to generate profits each year.
My examples chart are from the past history for you to understand but you must not bend and adjust your indicators and rules to catch every market move and pip the market shows;
  • #130
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:41pm Mar 20, 2015 1:41pm
limprobable: i hope you have other criteria to base your trading on and not just the 240 moving average;
We must analyze the market base on the price; moving averages are deceptive as many indicators not saying that it can not be used in trading; i have a simple example for everyone that should be very clear why trading is not only about indicators and it has to be accountant for more than 1 aspect of trading:
A trader will open his chart in the morning and he see the next image and thinks the price will go ____________: what do you think the market will do?
http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...psoqq9xxoz.jpg

Then the trader says it is not enough and he is right in a way and he will put for example a moving average on his chart to determine if he will buy or sell at the price in the right side; he does not know how to relate to trading and he forgot what the moving average does and the chart he will base decision next is this:
http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2wfimqll.jpg

But then he thinks he wants to be sure and change the moving average value and now he will base his trading decisions on this:
http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...pskeaj4bzc.jpg

I know for a fact that a child of 8 years old will trade better than a trader that is subjective because does not know to quantify and relate the market price because the child can see more clear than the trader the simple and basic fact in front of him even if the child does not know what his brain is considering.
  • #131
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:48pm Mar 20, 2015 1:48pm
very nice example
  • #132
  • Edited Mar 21, 2015 6:13am Mar 20, 2015 7:16pm | Edited Mar 21, 2015 6:13am
im prefer this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDmMonthly ff.png Size: 39 KB

97 ema and 3x3 dma
im doing this ma and tdi comfirmation signal before enter the trade , my backtesting on my demo account was 80% succsess then apply the same on real account.
to me the demo account play so important for the practise n makes use of its all the time.
"practises makes perfects"
  • #133
  • Mar 21, 2015 4:24am Mar 21, 2015 4:24am
You also prefer a demo account
  • #134
  • Mar 21, 2015 5:12am Mar 21, 2015 5:12am
I hope you understand that a moving average or another indicator is not to be used alone in trading; a trader has to go deeper into price and could use the help of some indicators; candlesticks were created with a purpose and visual they give a trader the best information just by looking at a chart; each candlestick contains a high, a low, the open and close of the price for the candlestick time frame or better the time period you want to trade and feel comfortable with; what nobody is telling publicly is that in order to trade very profitable you need to know to analyse this information and something more because trading just a cross of the high or low or moving average is simply not enough to be a very good trader; let analyse a move in the large trend move before we get further with explaining the price and how to use indicator like moving average to your advantage in trading profitable;

http://i1382.photobucket.com/albums/...pspbrkxnps.jpg

At any moment in time starting with the point dimension and continuing to the last explained dimension in my first posts the market is not just moving up and down but it is doing this while occupying some space within a period of time with a given energy and with a strength or speed of the move over a period of time; sounds so complicated but i just made the best description in one phrase so you will be able to come back later to it after we will analyse it piece by piece.
  • #135
  • Mar 21, 2015 5:32am Mar 21, 2015 5:32am
Market is just a battle between bulls and bears traders and obviously orders; it does not matter if you like the 1 minute chart or the 1 hour chart because just like a fractal because everything is in everything; the energy and strength of the market shows the same in a 1 hour candlestick and 1 minute candlestick so both charts can be read the same; all the energy and strength and space are the same; the wrong impression is to read to a tick chart because that is piece by piece but actually that every piece by piece tick information is in every time frame you can think; choose a 2 minute or 3 minute chart and the information is the same; with small time frame and candlestick like 1 minute you have to be more experience and watch the information better and faster because it change very fast.
  • #136
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:14pm Mar 21, 2015 2:14pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Not my formulas, but basically in this fractal market price revisits itself almost surely given a chosen time and space. Years, months, weeks, hours, minutes, seconds... Being that the market is fractal you can finds opportunities in the microscopic nooks and crannies that mimic the macro cycles. Price will revisit itself. This can be exploited using a sampling technique. I just feel it relates well with what has been presented thus far. I'll leave it there. You can also check the Transient zone basics thread to go deeper.
so true Billyon

,i use a technique on indices ,which i refer to as trading the market efficiency,i log all the return points and calculate the the deviation from market efficiency,this can only be seen in collective groups not singular.

anyways slightly off topic so ill exit
  • #137
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:26pm Mar 21, 2015 2:26pm
Quoting mark72
{quote} I believe this thread is a waste of time for majority of 95% but i also believe those are not reading this thread; i wonder if is so hard to be polite to your fellow traders and members of this forum that are reading a thread and want to learn something and if is so hard to restrict yourselves from writing useless things that is not trading related; i have said that price will always come back to same levels in the first posts but it cannot be exploited that easy; who believe it can be so easily exploited please go enter a trade and do not...

Lost in the sauce...

You took that completely the wrong way.
I thought it resonated well.


Proceed to dazzle us all...
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #138
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:28pm Mar 21, 2015 2:28pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} so true Billyon ,i use a technique on indices ,which i refer to as trading the market efficiency,i log all the return points and calculate the the deviation from market efficiency,this can only be seen in collective groups not singular. anyways slightly off topic so ill exit
Perfect. I also do a similar thing.
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #139
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:48pm Mar 21, 2015 2:48pm
Quoting BillYon
{quote} Not my formulas, but basically in this fractal market price revisits itself almost surely given a chosen time and space. Years, months, weeks, hours, minutes, seconds... Being that the market is fractal you can finds opportunities in the microscopic nooks and crannies that mimic the macro cycles. Price will revisit itself. This can be exploited using a sampling technique. I just feel it relates well with what has been presented thus far. I'll leave it there. You can also check the Transient zone basics thread to go deeper.
If you really study that formula you will notice it is nothing different then how a donchian channel is calcuted or zig zags.

Also it is a fact that there is a 100% chance all price levels will be revisited since the market is will never end just as time never ends.
  • #140
  • Mar 21, 2015 3:04pm Mar 21, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting Sis.yphus
{quote} If you really study that formula you will notice it is nothing different then how a donchian channel is calcuted or zig zags. Also it is a fact that there is a 100% chance all price levels will be revisited since the market is will never end just as time never ends.

Yes indeed

Mix in some price/time/bar return probability study, sprinkle in some sentiment (trend) analysis, a pinch of deviation knowledge and a stop loss. Hell, ya might just make a buck
Solutions ONLY!!!
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