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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #18,221
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:45pm Mar 20, 2015 2:45pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Marianne, from a pure Elliott Wave point of view, the chances are 50:50 for up or sustained down. I can make for both strong cases. From a fundamental view: Draghi is in full panic mode now. Would he when the economy in Europe would be improving? He tries to flood the markets with easy money in order to curb the economy. The question is: can the USA afford to raise the FED rates? There are strong arguments, that they even can not afford to raise the rates by 0.25% points. If the US economy would be so healthy as many think, the FED would...
I have been in the realestate buisness for many years .
I think super Mario were too impatient and too paniced. He wants QE to make people get loans and lower the currency to get more competable. He annonced QE in january and I think some of the improments were on the way. As I have understood he have bought less debt than he was supposed to so far after two weeks.

The other one is the US which is sinking after the rising USD and they will not watch and see the economic decling. It is both things I see that can make the euro rise again

In Cyprus noone is able to get a loan and then most buyers are russian coming with cash.
  • #18,222
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:58pm Mar 20, 2015 2:58pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Her I disagree with you because I think the housing market and labour market goes hand in hand. WE have two kind of housing markets one is the second hand market and the other is the new building market. When one is buying a second hand market one starts with buying funitures curtains,cups dishes etc etc. When one goes to holiday one buys food, uses sunbeds , go to resturants, buy suveniers etc etc. Many people rent out their houses which again make people use all kinds of facilities when they are on holiday. People spend money and that...

OK, valid points.

But do you think that all of the oversupply of houses is bought by foreigners? Does someone have a number?

Wouldn't it not be much easier to look instead on GDP, Velocity of money, unemployment rate, wages etc. in order to determine if the "effects" are big enough?
  • #18,223
  • Edited 3:32pm Mar 20, 2015 3:00pm | Edited 3:32pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Ye but currency decline against whom? Internally on EU which is largest portion of trading for EZ economices it means 0 as you know. For Russia which is quite large trading partner also 0, becouse rubble is actually more down, thus they are on advantage. Only for USA, but speaking for my country it means little.
The chinese and other asian countries for eksample are starting to invest more in Europe than in US where they invested before. The russians have put lots of money into banks in countries like Cyprus from 2008
It has nothing to to with the rise of the 400 pips in the euro. This was due to some greek proposals. Wait and see in six months what hass happend

The labour marked in the euro sone has declined from 12,3 to 11%
About the US economy I agree with you. I did improve due to all investment in the housing market and also due to the health reform. Now it declining

quote janpec
#Dont be regular economist, becouse you are likely to get it wrong in markets"
I am both an ecoomist and have been an investor in many markets in Europe.
  • #18,224
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:01pm Mar 20, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Exactly. It has nothing to do with EU recovery. I can hardly belive that people start calling EU is on path of recovery when EU surges 400 pips within 2 hours. There is absolutely no base behind that in regards to economy. As for can FED hike rates let me give you my points. When getting monetary policies right you need to be not just factual but more important-constructive. -facts are that rising rates will make US goverment spend bilions per month more on serving debts -fact is that rising rate will make trillions of debt/morgage/IB balance...

Thank you very much, Jan.

I am not sure what the FED will do. They are between a rock and a hard place.

The worst scenario is, when the FED hikes rates and at the same time the economy deteriorates considerably. That would crash the stock markets.

Maybe you are right with the FED doing hikes, and at the same time injecting money in stealth mode.
  • #18,225
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:04pm Mar 20, 2015 3:04pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} OK, valid points. But do you think that all of the oversupply of houses is bought by foreigners? Does someone have a number? Wouldn't it not be much easier to look instead on GDP, Velocity of money, unemployment rate, wages etc. in order to determine if the "effects" are big enough?
I think it is still a big oversupply in Spain. The russians are big buyers everywhere. It starts with the buyers and in the next phase one will se it in unemplyment rate, wages etc
  • #18,226
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:05pm Mar 20, 2015 3:05pm
Isn't it funny?

Me, the most publishing Elliottican here in FF engages in fundamental discussion!
  • #18,227
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:12pm Mar 20, 2015 3:12pm
Quoting infinitus
Isn't it funny? Me, the most publishing Elliottican here in FF engages in fundamental discussion!
As Joey Tribiani said, when offered decision between hand with honey and hand with naked girl, join your hands together.
  • #18,228
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:13pm Mar 20, 2015 3:13pm
[quote=MarianneOslo;8153846]{quote} Her I disagree with you because I think the housing market and labour market goes hand in hand.

I have to say I agree with you about the importance of the HousingMarkets with the Economy as is the Sector with more brings to the rest of the Economy. One 1% of this sector is the ones that tracks more % to the National Products, cause all the values that has and all the jobs that can bring. Specially in certain Economies, where the Tourism is a must. Like Spain,Cyprus.

I would love that the Economy will improve, and in the following months I will be looking for datas to test it. One of the most important datas, are the amount of the Bank loans and the % of Bankrupcies, that Banks has. Banks hate to have the % of Bankrupcies over 7% from their total amount because they are penalized in the INTERNAL BANK MARKET,where Banks move the money. In Spain now is at 11-12%. Banks are the first who are very interested in one change of the cycle. ASAP they will note it, they will start giving facilities to loans. That there are people paying in cash the Houses is what worried me. In the moment you will see an increase of people asking for loans to buy Houses, that's the moment of the recovery.
Why are not the Banks giving facilities to loans? Cause their 12% of Bankrupcies in Spain. Maybe with the new QE this will change...
  • #18,229
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:22pm Mar 20, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Thank you very much, Jan. I am not sure what the FED will do. They are between a rock and a hard place. The worst scenario is, when the FED hikes rates and at the same time the economy deteriorates considerably. That would crash the stock markets. Maybe you are right with the FED doing hikes, and at the same time injecting money in stealth mode.

Possibly, but not if QE is large enough. For reminder CBs can put QE directly into stock futures and push stock markets up.We have seen it in past few years. The question is what is ratio of FED vs market. Can FED pull it up on large QE even with market going oposite, how large does QE needs to be. in 2000 when stock market crashed at least from what we know there was no QE as hikes were on. There is always option for FED to do QE and hikes and thus change 2000 direction, but the question remains how much needs to be injected, if its 1-3 trillion, its just another QE. USD will go down a bit and thats it. No damage will be done, so its all about size of "official" QE that FED announces. But we can see that they can print much more than reported so i am pretty sure they can hide it most of it.
  • #18,230
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:25pm Mar 20, 2015 3:25pm
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Her I disagree with you because I think the housing market and labour market goes hand in hand. I have to say I agree with you about the importance of the HousingMarkets with the Economy as is the Sector with more brings to the rest of the Economy. One 1% of this sector is the ones that tracks more % to the National Products, cause all the values that has and all the jobs that can bring. Specially in certain Economies, where the Tourism is a must. Like Spain,Cyprus. I would love that the Economy will improve,
...

This is one of the reason for the QE to help the banks to give loans. ECB are buying debt from risks banks.
The loans amount in the eurosone is starting to improve also
  • #18,231
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:32pm Mar 20, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Her I disagree with you because I think the housing market and labour market goes hand in hand. I have to say I agree with you about the importance of the HousingMarkets with the Economy as is the Sector with more brings to the rest of the Economy. One 1% of this sector is the ones that tracks more % to the National Products, cause all the values that has and all the jobs that can bring. Specially in certain Economies, where the Tourism is a must. Like Spain,Cyprus. I would love that the Economy will improve,
...
What you asked here is critial question, which i have explained over and over. QE does not go to real economy. It doesnt go to firms that need loans to produce. It goes to exactly what you said: housing markets. Becouse it keeps status quo. It goes to stock markets becouse it does the same. they dont need it to go to real economy becouse financial structures of EU and USA are like parasites to it. Parasite doesnt need feeding itself, it only needs host to survive, but host already does its best. New QE will not change anything.
Lets take example. JP Morgan. They love desparate conditions or at least not good conditions in USA, becouse they feed of citizens as parasite. What they do is by monetary policies directed from their owners, create instability and bad conditions thus pushing state into creating food stamps, stated loans, and unnormalized rates, which trough bad economy all feeds them, becouse they are all designs from JPM itself. Europe its the same. DB- Greece i dont have to explain further, its same structure.
12% bankcruptcy has nothing to do with it, you are searching from wrong angle, like most of them. If you give me few bilion EUR, i assure you that there will be some serious development in certain area in EZ and will be well recognized. QEs are 100 times of that and noone can see them. Its simple, becouse they dont go in structural capital of investment flows of economy.
  • #18,232
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:39pm Mar 20, 2015 3:39pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote}{quote} What you asked here is critial question, which i have explained over and over. QE does not go to real economy. It doesnt go to firms that need loans to produce. It goes to exactly what you said: housing markets. Becouse it keeps status quo. It goes to stock markets becouse it does the same. they dont need it to go to real economy becouse financial structures of EU and USA are like parasites to it. Parasite doesnt need feeding itself, it only needs host to survive, but host already does its best. New QE will not change anything. Lets...

Dont you understand what a decling currency does to competivmess import and eksport and investments? It is everything.
Now it became a lot of fudamentals talks in this thread. Maybe it is time for the Elliottican again
  • #18,233
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:42pm Mar 20, 2015 3:42pm
[quote=janpec1000;8153975]{quote}{quote} What you asked here is critial question, which i have explained over and over.

I agree with you that has been the problem, money hasn't flown into the real Economy. It has been useful to clean certain Banks and to save certain nations as mine.

The % of Bancruptcy is a data that comes from 82's and 92's crisis, and the correlation of the initial of another wave of growing and the increase in the loans. The increase of the loans started when that % came back down to 7%. Banks study this.
  • #18,234
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:46pm Mar 20, 2015 3:46pm
[quote=Lavanda;8153987]
Quoting janpec1000
{quote}{quote} What you asked here is critial question, which i have explained over and over. I agree with you that has been the problem, money hasn't flown into the real Economy. It has been useful to clean certain Banks and to save certain nations as mine. The % of Bancruptcy is a data that comes from 82's and 92's crisis, and the correlation of the initial of another wave of growing and the increase in the loans. The increase of the loans started when that % came back down to 7%. Banks study this.
Yep commercial banks, but QE doesnt reach them, at least not biggest portion of it.
  • #18,235
  • Mar 20, 2015 3:49pm Mar 20, 2015 3:49pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Dont you understand what a decling currency does to competivmess import and eksport and investments? It is everything. Now it became a lot of fudamentals talks in this thread. Maybe it is time for the Elliottican again
I have answered in previous posts and no its not everything. Not nearly at all. Germany was n1 exporting economy for 100 years, and most of time they had strongest currency. Did that pushed economy into downfal? Nope. Germany can take 1.5 EU, or 1.0. Sure 1.0 is gona be much better, but 1.5 its not gona ruin it. Same goes for USA, which is oposite picture. Those distortions dont create downfalls, they make things worse or better but they dont turn healthy economy over cliff, nor they make reserve currency into shit paper. As long as one doesnt grasp that as very important information you cant have solid basis on your monetary predictions for future. Now if you dissagree let us wait few months and see who was right.
  • #18,236
  • Mar 20, 2015 6:11pm Mar 20, 2015 6:11pm
Quoting infinitus
1.0750 would be such a nice place to go eventually long again a) it is the 50% retracement of the move from the very low to 1.10x b) it would be the 50% retracement from yesterdays low to today's high
Let's take a breathe. Bad day of trading for me . I need to relax. This video shows me the freedom. I can fell the freedom in my legs, in my breath , imagine those beatiful landscapes and running over there. Hear the music and imagine you are here, running .walking, with this nature...,breathing the nature, the mountains, the valleys..

Inserted Video
  • #18,237
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:02am Mar 21, 2015 2:02am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} As Joey Tribiani said, when offered decision between hand with honey and hand with naked girl, join your hands together.
  • #18,238
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:19am Mar 21, 2015 2:19am
Can we use yield differentials to determine if currency will go up or down?

I have answered the question already last week. I showed data from Rogoff who showed, that there is no significant link between yield differences and price of currency. People argue, if it would when we observe long data series.

The following chart shows the EURUSD with the difference in yields between the 3 months LIBOR in EURO and USD

Note: as I have shown yesterday with the link to an EWI research, the FED decisions are front-runned by the bond market. The CB's are only following


All I can say so far: good luck with this approach to find value in the analysis of yield differences


Anyone?


The EURUSD is on the left side of the chart, the yield difference is on the right side. All yield differences above zero should be positive for Euro, all below zero should be positive for USD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 50 KB
  • #18,239
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:22am Mar 21, 2015 2:22am
Quoting infinitus
EU nice impulse up from the low yesterday maybe wave 1 of the C-wave (up) of an ABC-flat (up)
Do not you fell that is very dificult after FOMC candle to determine exact levels... as each broker is giving diferents highs????

What do you think about the following structure?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20-03-2015eu4-1.png Size: 98 KB
  • #18,240
  • Mar 21, 2015 2:45am Mar 21, 2015 2:45am
Quoting infinitus
Can we use yield differentials to determine if currency will go up or down? I have answered the question already last week. I showed data from Rogoff who showed, that there is no significant link between yield differences and price of currency. People argue, if it would when we observe long data series. The following chart shows the EURUSD with the difference in yields between the 3 months LIBOR in EURO and USD Note: as I have shown yesterday with the link to an EWI research, the FED decisions are front-runned by the bond market. The CB's are only...

Data source: FRED

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred...age_date=%2C&r
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