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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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  • #18,201
  • Mar 20, 2015 5:04am Mar 20, 2015 5:04am
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Many norwegians love Spain and have houses there. The unemployment rate in Spain has been decreasing from 27% to 23% The latest monthsand figures coming out of Spain are improving. I think the housing amrket in Spain also have started to improve. I am only talking about a start of inprovement and the currency euro will start to rise again if this continious . It is to look at the small starting changes
Hello Marianne. We would need another Forum to speak about this. I have to admit, that in the biggest crisis Spain have ever had, since post-war in 50's, with two dips we have had, and the greatest Burst-Buble in MarketHousing in Europe a bailout. or similar, when you are in the river of the deep valley, in one moment positive numbers appears...
The unemployment rate is false, or we need to study in order to analyze. So many months, there has been a decrease of the unemployment rate,BUT the numbers of employments went on decreasing. Why? Because a lot of desesperated people, stopped going to the unemployment office (for what??) to signature and because they have stopped to received the unemployment insurance, and their incomes has started to be Zero. They are the so called LongTime Unemployees, people who is out of the system.So the rate decrease, but people who find a job, was not increasing.
On the other hand, we have had, the 50% of young unemployment people, rates that are closer to African Countries than European. There has been a wide spread of young people( ingeneering doctors, nurseries) who has gone to Norht Europe to try to find a job. And they do not come back . So, less people who signature in the Unemployment Office, less unemployment rate. If you speak with University People, who is finishing their career, all of them, as an alternative, are seeking for cheap Ryan Air tickets, cities where they have spanish friends to hold them during some months, whereas they are looking for a job... believe me, is so sad to see you country and young people at this situation...

And, last months, there has been for first time an increasing (very shy) of the employment. But, we are very close to a elections-round ( in May the Regional Elections and in November General elections). So,as my experience, I prefer December to start to see the real dates. Some stadistics mentions the increase of part-time jobs, as is fashionable in the world, but if you fire out one eighth-hours worker and you employ two of four hours, you are increasing the number of workers,
And it's normal, few months before elections, Goverment starts to spend money to get votes, so they activate the Economy in order to get votes,spending the money they haven't to pay the Public Debt, and to equilibrate the Public Deficit.
  • #18,202
  • Mar 20, 2015 5:08am Mar 20, 2015 5:08am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Hello Marianne. We would need another Forum to speak about this. I have to admit, that in the biggest crisis Spain have ever had, since post-war in 50's, with two dips we have had, and the greatest Burst-Buble in MarketHousing in Europe a bailout. or similar, when you are in the river of the deep valley, in one moment positive numbers appears... The unemployment rate is false, or we need to study in order to analyze. So many months, there has been a decrease of the unemployment rate,BUT the numbers of employments went on decreasing. Why?...
Exactly the same situation as for USA. Therefore NFP numbers are skewed and false as they are using same approach as you described above. Same procedures everywhere. CPI too. But markets dont care though.
  • #18,203
  • Mar 20, 2015 8:34am Mar 20, 2015 8:34am
EURUSD, Short @ 1.078 (1 Lot/10-K-Acc.)
  • #18,204
  • Mar 20, 2015 8:57am Mar 20, 2015 8:57am
Quoting Forexcube
EURUSD, Short @ 1.078 (1 Lot/10-K-Acc.)
Short EU @ 1,0793 D.P.

Edited. Short GU @ 1,4895
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,205
  • Mar 20, 2015 11:48am Mar 20, 2015 11:48am
Does someone know a MT4 broker who has data of various bonds, like

T-Bills
T-notes (2, 5, 10 years)
Euro-Schatz
Bund


I know Oanda has, but for me it would be most important, to have Euro-Schatz (which Oanda does not have). T-Bills would be nice, but is not as important
  • #18,206
  • Mar 20, 2015 11:51am Mar 20, 2015 11:51am
Quoting infinitus
Does someone know a MT4 broker who has data of various bonds, like T-Bills T-notes (2, 5, 10 years) Euro-Schatz Bund I know Oanda has, but for me it would be most important, to have Euro-Schatz (which Oanda does not have). T-Bills would be nice, but is not as important
You plan to trade them? I am assuming PA-gaps must be quite bad there isnt it?
  • #18,207
  • Mar 20, 2015 11:54am Mar 20, 2015 11:54am
Quoting infinitus
Does someone know a MT4 broker who has data of various bonds, like T-Bills T-notes (2, 5, 10 years) Euro-Schatz Bund I know Oanda has, but for me it would be most important, to have Euro-Schatz (which Oanda does not have). T-Bills would be nice, but is not as important

BTW: any platform is OK, as long as the data is exportable to Excel
  • #18,208
  • Mar 20, 2015 11:56am Mar 20, 2015 11:56am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} You plan to trade them? I am assuming PA-gaps must be quite bad there isnt it?

No, not interested in trading


Like to do some calculations. Have some ideas, but need data
  • #18,209
  • Mar 20, 2015 12:45pm Mar 20, 2015 12:45pm
EU

nice impulse up from the low yesterday


maybe wave 1 of the C-wave (up) of an ABC-flat (up)
  • #18,210
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:05pm Mar 20, 2015 1:05pm
Quoting infinitus
EU nice impulse up from the low yesterday maybe wave 1 of the C-wave (up) of an ABC-flat (up)
Hey friend..INF..
your 0620 worked as a clear-cut level.
seen before like most
  • #18,211
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:42pm Mar 20, 2015 1:42pm
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Hello Marianne. We would need another Forum to speak about this. I have to admit, that in the biggest crisis Spain have ever had, since post-war in 50's, with two dips we have had, and the greatest Burst-Buble in MarketHousing in Europe a bailout. or similar, when you are in the river of the deep valley, in one moment positive numbers appears... The unemployment rate is false, or we need to study in order to analyze. So many months, there has been a decrease of the unemployment rate,BUT the numbers of employments went on decreasing. Why?...

Yes maybe but if one doesnt know if improvements are coming or not one known nothing abouth when it will return Euro/USD. One day it will return and can go back to 1,5

S&P: Portugal outlook to positive from stable

Everyone talk abouth parity or even 0,80 but I think it soon is time to change to long euro because the fudamentals are improving I think
  • #18,212
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:49pm Mar 20, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Agree but QE makes the currency go lower. This makes it more attractive to invest in countries with low currencies than hight currencies. IN US we could see the housing market from the figure above rise sharply afte QE1 2 and 3 and now after QE and rising USD investors go to low currencies markets like the eurosone and Asia. In 2008 the Eur/USD was 1,57 at the highest . The property market in Spain was 40% higher. Today in 2015 Eur/USD 1,07 and the property market is 40% lower. By changing the currency one gets 50% better value of the money....

Hi Marianne,

nice discussion here

I have my issues with improvements in housing/property markets. I see it from this point: buying a cheap house in a foreign land does not add much to the economy, which eventually lies on the ground. The money in most cases flows directly to the banks (the vampires). Many of the vacation homes the foreigners are buying will be empty most of the year.

Right now I am in Italy, in a small village at the foot of the Monte Rosa. Some decades ago rich persons/families mainly from Turin bought much of the property market here. The result is: the village seems most of the time orphaned. The houses/apartments are most of the time empty, with the window-panes closed.

This does not add anything to the local economy. Au contraire: the village seems to have no good chance to build a proper infrastructure for tourism. Fridays night or Saturdays morning the people from Turin may arrive eventually, but will be back to Turin latest Sunday afternoon. Some of the houses/apartments I can see from my flat had no visitors for some weeks now, because the snow was never cleared.

I would not take the housing/property market as an indicator for economy.


Just my two cents.
  • #18,213
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:52pm Mar 20, 2015 1:52pm
1.0750 would be such a nice place to go eventually long again

a) it is the 50% retracement of the move from the very low to 1.10x

b) it would be the 50% retracement from yesterdays low to today's high
  • #18,214
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:54pm Mar 20, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting chess king
{quote} Hey friend..INF.. your 0620 worked as a clear-cut level. seen before like most



but for the record: I only talked about "roughly 1.06-1.05"
  • #18,215
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:09pm Mar 20, 2015 2:09pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Yes maybe but if one doesnt know if improvements are coming or not one known nothing abouth when it will return Euro/USD. One day it will return and can go back to 1,5 S&P: Portugal outlook to positive from stable Everyone talk abouth parity or even 0,80 but I think it soon is time to change to long euro because the fudamentals are improving I think
Fundamentals of economy vs monetary policy. It is battle between Goliath and David. 10:1. Currencies arent driven by economies when you have completly upside down exagurated monetary policies in development (EU negative, USA going up).You may get 10 bilion inflows from outside due to increasing productivity or unemployment, but with your faction oposite economy turning rates up you loose at the same time 5 times as much in investment flows, thus your currency impact completly comes from second one. It is same thing as used for rationing oil price drop, fundamentals of economy. I strongly dissagree with such explanation. It merly is using theoretical economical knowledge to trying to pull out workable theory, while on other side of river you have hundreds of hardcore facts that dissagree with you. Dont be regular economist, becouse you are likely to get it wrong in markets.
  • #18,216
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:10pm Mar 20, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Yes maybe but if one doesnt know if improvements are coming or not one known nothing abouth when it will return Euro/USD. One day it will return and can go back to 1,5 S&P: Portugal outlook to positive from stable Everyone talk abouth parity or even 0,80 but I think it soon is time to change to long euro because the fudamentals are improving I think

Hi Marianne,

from a pure Elliott Wave point of view, the chances are 50:50 for up or sustained down. I can make for both strong cases.

From a fundamental view:

Draghi is in full panic mode now. Would he when the economy in Europe would be improving? He tries to flood the markets with easy money in order to curb the economy.

The question is: can the USA afford to raise the FED rates? There are strong arguments, that they even can not afford to raise the rates by 0.25% points. If the US economy would be so healthy as many think, the FED would not need to play this linguistic games about the word "patience". How laughable....

For me the question is: will the FED deliver or not? The market seems to have priced in a lot of the expectations of a rate hike. As we can see, Yellen disappointed the hawks and the USD took a dive. If she keeps on disappointing, the Euro can surge.

With this being said, I think a surge in Euro is not a sign of improvements in Europe, but a sign of weakness in USA economy and dovish FED.



Regarding the S&P ratings: do not know what one can believe this crooks. Look, they even can not downgrade the USA anymore............


But maybe let us simply take a close look over the next months at the T-bills and T-notes. They are a leading indicator of what the FED will doing. The FED simply follows the T-Bills and T-notes.
  • #18,217
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:17pm Mar 20, 2015 2:17pm
ups, just found this from Oanda


it roughly states, that Oanda does not recommend to use the historical data tool from its MT4, because the data would not be correct.....


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mm.png Size: 9 KB
  • #18,218
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:21pm Mar 20, 2015 2:21pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Marianne, nice discussion here I have my issues with improvements in housing/property markets. I see it from this point: buying a cheap house in a foreign land does not add much to the economy, which eventually lies on the ground. The money in most cases flows directly to the banks (the vampires). Many of the vacation homes the foreigners are buying will be empty most of the year. Right now I am in Italy, in a small village at the foot of the Monte Rosa. Some decades ago rich persons/families mainly from Turin bought much of the...
Her I disagree with you because I think the housing market and labour market goes hand in hand. WE have two kind of housing markets one is the second hand market and the other is the new building market.

When one is buying a second hand market one starts with buying funitures curtains,cups dishes etc etc. When one goes to holiday one buys food, uses sunbeds , go to resturants, buy suveniers etc etc. Many people rent out their houses which again make people use all kinds of facilities when they are on holiday. People spend money and that boost the economy.

The second one is the new built market who always follw the second hand markets. Building houses gives work to engineers, artitects, economics, marketing people, painters, builders,plumbers electicians etc etc. with the house it comes shops, schools, dentist resturants, doctors, hospitals etc etc.Most people are connected to the housing market in one way or other.

Spain was an country that built houses without any market but it did give people work. When this pyamid stopped Spain collapsed and one could see a big overload wth houses for noobody. It takes many years for the overload of housing to get sold and this made Spain decline for 40% in the housing market and the labour market rose to 28%.because the building activity stopped up.
The second problem was the decling GPB which made the british spend their money in the UK and dident go to holiday in the south so the tourismen went bad

After 7 years of depression in south of Europe I think many countries in Europe are starting to wake up due to the currency decline. One day not too long the euro is ready to rise again.
It is important to know this on beforehand what is happening then one know what will happen with the euro too.
  • #18,219
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:29pm Mar 20, 2015 2:29pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Marianne, from a pure Elliott Wave point of view, the chances are 50:50 for up or sustained down. I can make for both strong cases. From a fundamental view: Draghi is in full panic mode now. Would he when the economy in Europe would be improving? He tries to flood the markets with easy money in order to curb the economy. The question is: can the USA afford to raise the FED rates? There are strong arguments, that they even can not afford to raise the rates by 0.25% points. If the US economy would be so healthy as many think, the FED would...
Exactly. It has nothing to do with EU recovery. I can hardly belive that people start calling EU is on path of recovery when EU surges 400 pips within 2 hours. There is absolutely no base behind that in regards to economy.

As for can FED hike rates let me give you my points. When getting monetary policies right you need to be not just factual but more important-constructive.
-facts are that rising rates will make US goverment spend bilions per month more on serving debts
-fact is that rising rate will make trillions of debt/morgage/IB balance sheets payments more dificult and probably create defaults here and there
-fact is that rising rates will make US dollar stronger and make all exporting US economy put into hole and create better competition of EU
-fact is that rising rates will create problems with stock markets and push investitors elsewhere, also bond markets
-fact is NFP numbers are skewed and economic projections of USA are fictional, thus rising rates will create problems as lending decreases even more of problematic economy
-................

Now are those facts in front line and are they enough to stop FED to hike? My answer would be no. For all problems i typed above there is solution FED has: QE4.
And since FED isnt hiking due to any conection to above listed (unles they plan to burst bubble on purpuse, which is unlikely but possible), then hike will remain. Also note FED is fighting hard to be non-visited which makes them able to make stealth QE which is being done anyways already. They print much more than they say, we have seen it proven already, so for any factual problem above FED has already solution in place.
As counter reason also lets make that clear: If FED would in summer say that it cant rise rates in any near future, the impact would not just be EU correcting all the way up above 1.30+, but impact would be 2x stronger on negative side, becouse market would take that as granted that something is seriously wrong, and USD would get into deep shit hole. So using argument that FED is bluffing with their hike just to get USD up that is complete nonsense, becouse if FED would come out with argument that no hike is possible, capital reversal flows would be devastating for USD. It isnt as simple game as: ok lets tell shit to markets and get EU to 1.000, then tell the truth and get EU to maybe 1.1 . No it would be far worse. So what would have FED gain in first place with bluffing? Nothing, it would only make serious damage to USD and whole US financial structure.
There are my reasons. Btw this isnt towards you Infinitus its just general to all people who share idea that no hikes will come with whatever logical reasons they have, even though logical and okay, i think not based correct.
  • #18,220
  • Mar 20, 2015 2:34pm Mar 20, 2015 2:34pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Her I disagree with you because I think the housing market and labour market goes hand in hand. WE have two kind of housing markets one is the second hand market and the other is the new building market. When one is buying a second hand market one starts with buying funitures curtains,cups dishes etc etc. When one goes to holiday one buys food, uses sunbeds , go to resturants, buy suveniers etc etc. Many people rent out their houses which again make people use all kinds of facilities when they are on holiday. People spend money and that...
Ye but currency decline against whom? Internally on EU which is largest portion of trading for EZ economices it means 0 as you know. For Russia which is quite large trading partner also 0, becouse rubble is actually more down, thus they are on advantage. Only for USA, but speaking for my country it means little.
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