ALSI 40 Index - Trading the South African All Share Index

One thing I have noticed with the DAX, the first 10 minutes after LO can be extremely volatile, 10 pip stops can be hit in the blink of an eye. Perhaps there is an argument for widening stops at this time if you are confident in your read, or even sitting out those 10 minutes until a clear picture emerges, especially less experienced traders. DAX also regularly gives a little fakey the first couple of minutes after LO before reversing into the true direction. These moves are still often 20-30 pips so can be traded, but they are quick and require good execution to make money.
I took a short @ 11888 this morning and got slipped 6 pips by IG which is unusual, but it was a fast move. Grabbed 10 pips and the move had fully reversed inside 2 minutes giving a nice long. I didn't get into this until 11911 but it gave a rapid +30 but went on a full 80 pips. Should have re-entered but got distracted by my kids asking for money before going to school

HP and PIP, that was good trading to make money yesterday. I was -40 at one point got back to -10 and stopped there as I just wasn't feeling it. Kudos to you guys for carrying on and taking good profit.
Of course ankur_75 is right about our psychology, this is much discussed. For me, if I am not mentally in the right place I have learnt to walk away from the computer and come back later or another day.
Good trading guys.

Awesome display by SA yesterday, wasn't expecting a thrashing like that. Almost felt sorry for Sri Lanka (almost )

Morning all.

This is probably the most volatile I have seen the DAX at the open since I started studying it, it threw out 2 quick trades which failed within about 15 seconds (-26). Trade management is near impossible at this speed and more typical of the ALSI!

Went long at 926 for a solid +40. Then Long again which gave a cheeky +8, then another failed trade (-12), another BE and then a HUGE short which I banked +62 using the ATR.

I think I am going to make another coffee...this is almost as stressful as the ALSI!

OK so it's not just me that suffered from the volatility. It is probably the FED announcement last night that caused all of this.

Good day HP.

Note the present daily structure of the index. Trend on an LT basis is up.
The structure from the prior high indicates a falling-broadening wedge (which is bullish in nature) the target was hit during morning trade.
The current (incomplete) Daily candle is a shooting star (bearish sign)?
So.... We all go short tomorrow?

No,, its an index and indexes go up most of the time, however trading the ALSI now is under caution that down side risk is present after a new all time high.

PA stands above a golden cross and above the 50 day and 200 day simple moving averages and is therefore a technical uptrend. (short positions beware)

The best of the strategies now, is a move to cash. Note US500 hasn't made a new high yet and its more than possible it will drag our index up with it if it continues bullish therefore again, risk is to the downside but the obvious short.... requires confirmation.
all views i.m.o. trade safe set stops.

So.

News
http://www.fin24.com/Economy/Eskom/E...-hike-20150319

And S&P downgrade
http://www.bdlive.co.za/business/ene...ng-suspensions

ASX is up 1,8%, China is neutral, Hangseng down 0,46 Nifty down 0,17, Nikkei 225 down 0,31. European futures are tracking positively but the Greeks, Russians are looking a spot in pain.

Overnight the Dow closed down by 0,5% S&P tracked to neutral with the NASDAQ.

In summary expect a neutral to negative start on the ALSI, then look for market reaction to the S&P downgrade. The problem here is the rand is most likely to weaken and that might hold the index up, on the other hand and the higher probability is gap down with profit taking and a couple of bears are going to swing for the fences, risk is to the downside.

USD/ZAR 12,27
Gold strengthening

Trading disclosure
I have no position ALSI
Long S&P 500
short EUR/USD
short AUD/USD

Trade safe, note the gap close trade for the bears.... Caution, caution, caution there are no high probability set-ups

ALSI 1H

Bears are... going for the gap...

I'm trying to act surprised...

Morê manne.

How is everyone doing? DAX is still in range mode. Not much happening at the moment.

Simtrad. It looks like it will be India vs. Aus in the semi. Should be a cracker of a match!

Multiple tests to the top.... And the DAX breaks to the upside...

Ok, so going to get bid up for the afternoon.... how high?

Nope, pump and dump... I think the bear flag below 46740 might be interesting but for now.... watching paint dry...

Yeah, it's been like this all day. Nothing....then bam....back to not doing much. It's been ok though. I'm up for the day and that is all that matters. Let's see if it will continue this move up, the range has finally been broken.

The Rand is strengthening a bit.

Hello all, I took the morning off to climb a mound of earth (can't really even call them hills on this island) to watch a funny sunrise. Can confess I have seen more impressive heavenly bodies but thats a discussion for another day.

Few soft signals all morning it seems but nothing to make serious bank.

Sounds good though. It beats sitting in the same old office chair and you chose a good to give it a miss. Was it the solar eclipse?

ALSI: I'm seeing very strong upward signals, with a little 'roof' at the 910 mark. If it breaks up we should be good to hold onto this long.

As I hit 'send' it broke up, all clear now to 7060 so should be a good trade.

Now a 90 pip trade. I'm not a huge fan of holding for the sake of, seeing a thickening now at the 7018 level so the brave are clear to stick with it in the long. Now a zero risk trade so lets see...

Yebo!

ALSI: Can come back a bit now as 910 is becoming a gentle support zone.

DAX: I'm in LONG NOW (030) on the DAX also. Tight stops, 038/39 is a soft ceiling off the recent high.