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Multi-Lot Multi-Timeframe Position trading

  • #1,101
  • Mar 18, 2015 8:58am Mar 18, 2015 8:58am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I'm glad you brought that up Lemna. I've had the same problem. The very best trades, the ones you wish to get another lot on the most, are the most likely to not offer a retracement to add the additional lot. The way I'm currently handling this is I have a price where I want to add the additional lot if I get a retracement, say around +75 pips, but if price continues to a given point above that price, say +100 pips, with no sign of turning back, then I just go ahead and throw the additional lot on. My thinking is the trade has already proven...
Keeping it as simple as possible, an alternative along the same line is to just use the Daily open - figuring that if the Trend is truly strong, this is an easily reproducible time point from which serious retracement is less likely, particularly if the wave structure is supportive. For that matter almost any time point would work. This maintains Temporal spacing and then Price spacing can be easily adjusted on the fly.

AG
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind.
  • #1,102
  • Mar 18, 2015 11:56am Mar 18, 2015 11:56am
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I'm glad you brought that up Lemna. I've had the same problem. The very best trades, the ones you wish to get another lot on the most, are the most likely to not offer a retracement to add the additional lot. The way I'm currently handling this is I have a price where I want to add the additional lot if I get a retracement, say around +75 pips, but if price continues to a given point above that price, say +100 pips, with no sign of turning back, then I just go ahead and throw the additional lot on. My thinking is the trade has already proven...
Hi G. and all,
in my experience there are good results switching to lower timeframes when looking for additional entries.
If trading D1 or H4 there will always be retracements in H1 or M15. InitialStopps can be put tighter there too.
Have a nice day
  • #1,103
  • Mar 18, 2015 2:32pm Mar 18, 2015 2:32pm
Quoting doerpn
{quote} Hi G. and all, in my experience there are good results switching to lower timeframes when looking for additional entries. If trading D1 or H4 there will always be retracements in H1 or M15. InitialStopps can be put tighter there too.
Good point! I've done that too. If I'm not getting a retracement to enter, just keep dropping down to lower timeframes until I get one.
  • #1,104
  • Mar 18, 2015 3:54pm Mar 18, 2015 3:54pm
So I guess many SLs got hit in the past hours and now it is time to be patient and slowly build them up again.
  • #1,105
  • Mar 18, 2015 6:31pm Mar 18, 2015 6:31pm
Quoting IBreakOut
So I guess many SLs got hit in the past hours and now it is time to be patient and slowly build them up again.
Yes, I'm sure that's the case. I expected volatility around the FOMC announcements, but it was more extreme than I would have thought for what was basically a non-event. This is the reason to first take care of our risk and protect ourselves at all times. If the trend is long and strong, we'll make very good pips taking very small risks. If there is something violent like this, losses are minimal and we just rebuild as necessary.

Now, we simply start over as necessary, taking only the best trends as they develop over the next few days. Carefully controlling our risks so that we never take more than 1 X SL risk per pair, and that risk is removed from the trade as soon as it is reasonable to do so.
  • #1,106
  • Mar 18, 2015 8:06pm Mar 18, 2015 8:06pm
I'm still catching up here. I was thinking that trades well in profit would not even flinch but wow. Same here, I didn't expect such deep retracement on the dollar today, anybody lost anything? What about slippage and the like? I've yet to read all the details of the FOMC announcement but what do you think it all means for EURUSD trend with the coming interest rate hike?
  • #1,107
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:40am Mar 19, 2015 3:40am
Sometimes with these huge moves it just consolidates and entries become an endless round of whipsaws.

Other times after a deep pull back the price just comes right back and keeps coming.

I'm leaning towards the second interpretation based on what has happened so far, but I will only trade what I see - so I think that if UCad and EURUSD get back to levels where the MAs and the RSIs are looking good on all time frames later - I will be ready to enter long USD on either or both. Even though its disappointing not to be able to get back in at better prices! Well thats how it looks now, anyway.

We are not too far off being bullish USD on all time frames right now.. just needs H4 really.
  • #1,108
  • Edited 8:43am Mar 19, 2015 7:29am | Edited 8:43am
Quoting saunga2nd3
I'm still catching up here. I was thinking that trades well in profit would not even flinch but wow. Same here, I didn't expect such deep retracement on the dollar today, anybody lost anything? What about slippage and the like? I've yet to read all the details of the FOMC announcement but what do you think it all means for EURUSD trend with the coming interest rate hike?
The FOMC announcement was that there is no change. It was a large reaction for no change in policy, but I suppose the market was just ready for a correction. I had to bail out of my UCad long with tiny profit to prevent letting a winner turn into a loser. That's one of the three deadly sins of trading, cutting winners short, holding onto losers and letting winners turn into losers. But, I re-entered with better position when the retracement ended. I did take note of the big pinbar that ended the retracement, so I must admit to reading something into individual candles when it suits my purpose.

So, at this point, I'm back in UCad for 3 lots long, with better position than I had before. With this good entry, I should be able to run 4 or 5 lots on this trade. Just focusing on trying to do this one thing right at the moment. Trying to turn lemons into lemonade here. We'll see. Looks like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCad restart.PNG Size: 49 KB
  • #1,109
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:14pm Mar 19, 2015 12:14pm
OK, I still have some left to read on this thread but I'm jumping into these waters, on demo of course.

I jumped on 3 pairs today with stops around 2% of capital adjusted to 1x adr

AUDJPY gave less resistance going down, I got in @92.53 and it's starting to turn around 92. Two things I'm thinking, either take profit of first position around 92 and place the second part around there with a stop around 1st part entry. Or let it ride to about 100 pips and place 2nd part and move/place stops @half way between 2 positions. As I said price is starting to turn around but whatever happens I'm not letting it turn into a loser.

AUDNZD took a while to brake the ascending trendline, I got in @1.0342, same thinking as above. It might slow down with it gets to 1.03.

EURJPY took a loss of about 20 pips and gave up on it as it didn't seem it was going my way. Initial stop was around 100 pips.

These 3 trades looked best to me as far a technicals and momentum when I took them. Maybe not. I realize I took AN right against that trendline but I took a risk because momentum seemed strong.

Had an eye on GBPUSD as well but I sort of missed the signal. GBP started to move strongly after news

I will post some charts, criticism or comments would be great.

USDCAD wasn't even on my radar. I will add this one since its correlated to oil. Graviton, @what time did you start building positions again?

Good luck to all
  • #1,110
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:24pm Mar 19, 2015 12:24pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH1.png Size: 74 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYH1-last.png Size: 74 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDNZDH1-last.png Size: 69 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYM1.png Size: 67 KB


Edit: On the last chart EJ, I enter a small postion at the first arrow @128.70 and closed @the x. Pehaps I should've waited for the ratracement and enter where the 2nd arrow was at the pullback. Overall this pair has not moved much after I entered and it was over its ADR range.
  • #1,111
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:13pm Mar 19, 2015 1:13pm
Quoting saunga2nd3
OK, I still have some left to read on this thread but I'm jumping into these waters, on demo of course. I jumped on 3 pairs today with stops around 2% of capital adjusted to 1x adr AUDJPY gave less resistance going down, I got in @92.53 and it's starting to turn around 92. Two things I'm thinking, either take profit of first position around 92 and place the second part around there with a stop around 1st part entry. Or let it ride to about 100 pips and place 2nd part and move/place stops @half way between 2 positions. As I said price is starting...
Hey Saunga. Yes, some charts would be great! Glad to see you are trying this in demo.

I jumped back into UCad about 5 hours after the long pinbar marked the bottom of the retracement. That was a rather unconventional trade for me. The very long term, daily, weekly and monthly were all still trending up and the very short term 1M 5M had started trending back up. The 15M, 30M, 1H and H4 had all turned to pointing back up but hadn't returned to a steady up trend at that point.

This was just an experience related trade for me. I saw the long pinbar bottom and a retest of the bottom that couldn't make it that far back down again, generating another shorter pinbar and a higher low. I was watching oil drop and we had a storage number that was very high, indicating an oversupply that could continue to cause oil to fall. There was no real change in Fed policy to justify the big fall. Based on all those factors I did something I rarely do and I generally don't recommend and I called a bottom and entered long. I was prepared to bail out quickly with a very small loss of around 20 pips if the down move resumed, but price continued to move back up and I managed to get in early and make a good return off very low risk entry.

As I said, I don't normally try to call bottoms and tops because the odds of getting them correct are horrible. Like 1 candle out of 20 possibilities. This was a case where I had enough technical and fundamental factors in my favor that I thought it was worth a small risk.

Ah! I see you have posted some charts. I'll look at them and comment.
  • #1,112
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:26pm Mar 19, 2015 1:26pm
Hi Graviton, I have started my thread about simmilar topic few months ago so I dont need to spam all threads @ FF, but feel is pointless since you made the very same, but with much more reading info included. Thank you for all your posts here, it is a nice reading. I hope you wont mind if am gonna be posting charts from time to time. T
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,113
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:49pm Mar 19, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting saunga2nd3
OK, I still have some left to read on this thread but I'm jumping into these waters, on demo of course. I jumped on 3 pairs today with stops around 2% of capital adjusted to 1x adr AUDJPY gave less resistance going down, I got in @92.53 and it's starting to turn around 92. Two things I'm thinking, either take profit of first position around 92 and place the second part around there with a stop around 1st part entry. Or let it ride to about 100 pips and place 2nd part and move/place stops @half way between 2 positions. As I said price is starting...
Yes, that AJ short seems to be going in your direction. No need to rush your decision on that one. Be patient. No need to get kicked out of a good trade because you crowded the trade. I'd let it run a little to get some breathing room on it. Same for AN short. It's going through a tiny retracement at the moment, but I expect it to turn back down shortly. Be patient with the good ones. As far as cutting the EJ loss short. That's the right thing to do when it doesn't move as you expected right after entry. Yes, if you'd have waited for even a small retracement on a short TF like where you have the second arrow, you might have avoided the quick loss, but it was small and I wouldn't worry over it. I take lots of 20 to 30 pip losses trying to get a good position in a trade. It's just the unavoidable cost of doing business. Then, one good trade makes 500 pips and those 20 pip quick exits don't seem to matter. It's important to maintain perspective. Keep calm. Carry on.
  • #1,114
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:51pm Mar 19, 2015 1:51pm
Quoting Tom_D_Trader
Hi Graviton, I have started my thread about simmilar topic few months ago so I dont need to spam all threads @ FF, but feel is pointless since you made the very same, but with much more reading info included. Thank you for all your posts here, it is a nice reading. I hope you wont mind if am gonna be posting charts from time to time. T
Welcome to the thread Tom. You are welcome to post anytime. Best success.
  • #1,115
  • Edited 2:19pm Mar 19, 2015 2:00pm | Edited 2:19pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} There was no real change in Fed policy to justify the big fall.
Slowly but surely price is getting back to where it was prior FOMC, as if nothing would have happened, except for volatility.

Edit: What are some of the other fundamentals you're keeping and eye on? I mean besides the FED on USD and Oil on the UC. I'm not sure if I am on the right side of news but the long term trends seem to be correct.
  • #1,116
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:43pm Mar 19, 2015 2:43pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} Yes, that AJ short seems to be going in your direction. No need to rush your decision on that one. Be patient. No need to get kicked out of a good trade because you crowded the trade. I'd let it run a little to get some breathing room on it. Same for AN short. It's going through a tiny retracement at the moment, but I expect it to turn back down shortly. Be patient with the good ones. As far as cutting the EJ loss short. That's the right thing to do when it doesn't move as you expected right after entry. Yes, if you'd have waited for even...
Very well. Question is what to do before going to bed and leaving the charts unattended. I suppose you would tighten the stops or leave them be? I'm thinking about the possibility of waking up to a nasty surprise especially after I've been up around +50. What say you?

Thanks for the comments, by the way. Much appreciated.
  • #1,117
  • Mar 19, 2015 3:23pm Mar 19, 2015 3:23pm
Quoting saunga2nd3
{quote} Very well. Question is what to do before going to bed and leaving the charts unattended. I suppose you would tighten the stops or leave them be? I'm thinking about the possibility of waking up to a nasty surprise especially after I've been up around +50. What say you? Thanks for the comments, by the way. Much appreciated.
I don't tighten stops before being away from the computer for a long period. Due to all the work put into trade selection up front, the tighter stop is more likely to kick me out of a good trade than a bad one. Some of my best wins were made while sleeping
  • #1,118
  • Edited 4:42pm Mar 19, 2015 4:30pm | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting Graviton
{quote} I don't tighten stops before being away from the computer for a long period. Due to all the work put into trade selection up front, the tighter stop is more likely to kick me out of a good trade than a bad one. Some of my best wins were made while sleeping
Am doing the very same. When I go away, not tighten, but widen. If tighten, am 100% sure volatility kicks me out. Widened SL sometimes results in funny situations like I am going for work, make 50 bucks and loose 500 on FX. But sometimes I also hit TP .

If it is not safe entry, but a fresh one and I know volatility can kick me out of long term stops as well, I set intraday TPs for partials. So then its like trades have long term SL, but intraday partial TPs real close - so bad RR for partials and level will very possibly deleverage a bit and just 1/3rd of position will remain. On the other hand, I count it like the last third is in fact BE, or simply cheap.

Edit: Is not precisely to the topic, but I also widen intraday SL on NY close, coz spread widens a lot and I dont want to get spread cut. Is the on very time of day when my tradeplan can intraday screw up a bit - it is now
"I know one thing, that I know nothing." Sokrates
  • #1,119
  • Mar 19, 2015 7:06pm Mar 19, 2015 7:06pm
Thanks both for the good advice. Yes Tom, I believe volatility is still on the crazy side so we have to give the trades room to breathe. I'm sticking to my guns and leave the stops where I initially set them, that's around 2% of capital only on 1/3 of my position. I will move the stop only when it goes far enough that I can add another position or TP on the first position and enter another one so I can withstand a deeper pullback on my initial setup. The idea is to keep adding and I'm not too concern with TP however. I'm still trying to work the different pyramid strategies scattered around this forum and figure out when to apply each one. I suppose it'll get easier as I go.

edit: corrected spelling. Good night all.
  • #1,120
  • Mar 19, 2015 9:25pm Mar 19, 2015 9:25pm
Bailed out of UCad with a nice profit. Was hoping for more, but I always am. Took an EN short for small risk. I'll let it run overnight and see what I wake up to.
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