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  • #18,181
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:16pm Mar 19, 2015 12:16pm
So, there seemed to be a technical bounce up on EU yesterday. Are we back, going down ?

Best,
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,182
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:30pm Mar 19, 2015 12:30pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
So, there seemed to be a technical bounce up on EU yesterday. Are we back, going down ? Best, D.P.
Hi Dr.Phoenix,
psychological-meditation-camp?
I've execute one short order more (1 Lot/10-K-Acc.) since 1.0720 (mS1), Target @ 0.9885
FXcube
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  • #18,183
  • Mar 19, 2015 12:54pm Mar 19, 2015 12:54pm
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} In regards to some agrement i dont think there is some agreement, there is FULL agreement. With reserve currency you need to watch counterpart currencies at all times, so therefore its all one big cabal. As for rate hikes...they will come, if you think otherwise you will face very bad fundamental base on your trading decisions for next 6 months. Rate hikes are printed in FED documents (as much as 3% in 2 years), in their speeches (September), and especailly in MMs of market. Look what happened yesterday. FED flew past June hike, and EU rallied...

Yes I am gioing against the marke. but I am not yet positioned for it as I expect one more move down to the euro-. Things are starting to change. The big money are now investing in Europe and Asia due to the currency I think.
I have been very bear to the euro since one year ago but I am starting to change my viev on this since I see thing are starting to improve in Europe. I follow the realestate market closely- Labour market and housing market are strongly correlated.
and for eg Cyprus thongs are beginning to improve for the first time in seven years. The lower currency is starting to work. Europe is also one year behind US so improvemts are coming anyway in addition to the lower currency.
http://www.news.cyprus-property-buye...ent/id=0052651
Every day weaker figures are coming from the US. They can not sit and see the USD damaging their economy much longer I think.

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/a...conomic-crisis

Janpec!
How are things going on in Slovania?
  • #18,184
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:15pm Mar 19, 2015 1:15pm
[quote=MarianneOslo;8150616]{quote} Yes I am gioing against the marke. but I am not yet positioned for it as I expect one more move down to the euro-. Things are starting to change.
Dear Marianne, I would like to argue about your last statement about Europe. I disagree about the way you see things in Cyprus and then, you correlate for Euro future. Cyprus is very small to amplify one correlation in Europe. If you were talking about realstate market in Spain,France... but Cyprus... In Spain, for example there is not any real improvement about Housing Market.
Maybe you will got the reason, but I would like to search another indicators to plan a real improvement about general investment in Europe. If you take a look only in Cyprus, one small plant doesn't let you to see the forest.
About exports, bufff... IF there are a lot of exports that has got a lot of import inputs to develop the product, it can be good for the country and some exports companies. It depends wich % of exports have got more of the 50% of import inputs in its value.
  • #18,185
  • Edited 1:38pm Mar 19, 2015 1:22pm | Edited 1:38pm
Quoting Lavanda
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Yes I am gioing against the marke. but I am not yet positioned for it as I expect one more move down to the euro-. Things are starting to change. Dear Marianne, I would like to argue about your last statement about Europe. I disagree about the way you see things in Cyprus and then, you correlate for Euro future. Cyprus is very small to amplify one correlation in Europe. If you were talking about realstate market in Spain,France... but Cyprus... In Spain, for example there is not any real improvement about Housing
...

Global property guide doesnt agree with you sice the property prices in Spain are rising

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/E.../Price-History

and in Grrece
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/E.../Price-History

Cyprus is very small but shows the early age of improvements coming up in Europe.

But in the US it is declining

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/N.../United-States
  • #18,186
  • Mar 19, 2015 1:40pm Mar 19, 2015 1:40pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote} Yes I am gioing against the marke. but I am not yet positioned for it as I expect one more move down to the euro-. Things are starting to change. The big money are now investing in Europe and Asia due to the currency I think. I have been very bear to the euro since one year ago but I am starting to change my viev on this since I see thing are starting to improve in Europe. I follow the realestate market closely- Labour market and housing market are strongly correlated. and for eg Cyprus thongs are beginning to improve for the first time...
As you know we are small country so overall impact on EU is pretty much none. Economical situation is completly stagnant since 2008, though you could argue that it was since 2004, as in many countries that entered EU then, their progress was only fueled by debt expansion. The main problem now is privatization. Every goverment that comes in our country is more severe on privatization, either privatization of main countries companies sold to nearby buyers, or IMF pushed privatization that is highly pushed by politicans. 99% of people cant see how privatization is bad. In every country they need to learn it from actual misstakes taken sadly. Ireland and Croatia and Hungary are good expamples, we will follow and regret it afterwards. Ofcourse all will be blamed on politics, people wont take any credit in it even though passively participating. Reforms were rejected in 2009, so nothing was done in that sense. Same ole thing and stagnation. Our financial minister spends more time talking about how Greece should pay its debt loans asap as we have stake in it, instead of woring about actual things in progress that need some push.
  • #18,187
  • Edited 2:18pm Mar 19, 2015 1:53pm | Edited 2:18pm
Remember this post:

Quoting andexQ
Interesting, just found this.. it seem there is hidden message in her speech. Christine Lagarde of IMF: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxBsv-ng7YU
EDIT: above link doesn't work..... new link:
Inserted Video





Is anyone could find another new hidden message in here ? , just curious LOL.

Inserted Video
  • #18,188
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:36pm Mar 19, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} psychological-meditation-camp?

no longer already... D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #18,189
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:53pm Mar 19, 2015 2:53pm
Quoting andexQ
Remember this post: {quote} EDIT: above link doesn't work..... new link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw Is anyone could find another new hidden message in here ? , just curious LOL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgU5Nvi9k5g
Thanks for link will check tomorrow, too long video for today.
  • #18,190
  • Mar 19, 2015 2:55pm Mar 19, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
So, there seemed to be a technical bounce up on EU yesterday. Are we back, going down ? Best, D.P.
Yes. But bounce from this demand as many sellers were wiped out is very possible. We are nearly closed bellow FOMC levels so bears are defenetly in control, they never lost it, but many of bears did got bumped on head yesterday. I would preffer to see 0500 ish break for my system to work in its full state, other than risk on longer term for up bounce remains, but anything above 0700ish i think has been canceled.
  • #18,191
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:08pm Mar 19, 2015 4:08pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote}{quote} Global property guide doesnt agree with you sice the property prices in Spain are rising http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/E.../Price-History and in Grrece http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/E.../Price-History Cyprus is very small but shows the early age of improvements coming up in Europe. But in the US it is declining http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/N.../United-States
Marianne, with all my respects, the article confirnms what I am saying. The article says that prices are still decreasing. But the speed of the decreasing is what has decreased. In %, it means that decreasings are not so high. For example, in 2013, the house prices decrease one 8% ( I am not reading it now,it's an example),2012, on 10%, and in 2014, the decrease has been one 4%. So on, prices are still falling, but are not falling so much, as in the past.
In the cities, we barely can see an interest in housemarket. The general view is that it's sunk. We can see of course, some bargain-seekers, but the pool of stocks is soooooo huge, that we will need some years to recover just a little bit the HouseBuilding or Residential sector.

Of course, there are more bargain-ssekers in tourists areas, as they are Russians, English, and Nordic people. But they are Bargain-seekers, and the stocks are so huge, that this is not going to increase the number of employees in the Residential sector, as first we need to sell all the stocks, before buid again.

By the way, I suppose you are Norwegian. One interesting, or curious place, were I have been is Alfas del Pi, that is the Town with more Norwegians in Europe, outside Norway. Norwegians supermarkets,Schools,kindergartens,Bars, street with names like Oslo, Bergen,Lofoten,etc.
  • #18,192
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:27pm Mar 19, 2015 4:27pm
Quoting MarianneOslo
{quote}{quote} Global property guide doesnt agree with you sice the property prices in Spain are rising http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/E.../Price-History and in Grrece http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/E.../Price-History Cyprus is very small but shows the early age of improvements coming up in Europe. But in the US it is declining http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/N.../United-States

Let me bring in another argument: could it be, that rising property/housing prices are simply a reflection of easy money policy rather than better economic output?
  • #18,193
  • Mar 19, 2015 4:31pm Mar 19, 2015 4:31pm
Quoting andexQ
Remember this post: {quote} EDIT: above link doesn't work..... new link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QYmViPTndxw Is anyone could find another new hidden message in here ? , just curious LOL. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgU5Nvi9k5g

Hi Andex,

can remember very well. Have to listen to the video in two weeks or so. Have very poor inernet connection here
  • #18,194
  • Mar 19, 2015 5:38pm Mar 19, 2015 5:38pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau.../picture-5.jpg
Bitcoin Scammers Run Off With $12 Million: “Going to The Caribbean… Hope You Guys Understand”
  • #18,195
  • Mar 19, 2015 5:43pm Mar 19, 2015 5:43pm
Quoting infinitus
Sentiment Index 26% EUR bulls 61% DXY bulls nice change....

today's sentiment

18% EU bulls

68% UDX bulls

10% Crude bulls
  • #18,196
  • Mar 19, 2015 5:54pm Mar 19, 2015 5:54pm
The Fed's Coming Rate Hike: The One "Little Indicator That Could"
  • #18,197
  • Mar 19, 2015 6:05pm Mar 19, 2015 6:05pm
EURUSD: A Crazy 900-Pip "Roundtrip"
You have to go back to 2008 to see forex volatility like the one we saw this week
  • #18,198
  • Mar 20, 2015 1:13am Mar 20, 2015 1:13am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Marianne, with all my respects, the article confirnms what I am saying. The article says that prices are still decreasing. But the speed of the decreasing is what has decreased. In %, it means that decreasings are not so high. For example, in 2013, the house prices decrease one 8% ( I am not reading it now,it's an example),2012, on 10%, and in 2014, the decrease has been one 4%. So on, prices are still falling, but are not falling so much, as in the past. In the cities, we barely can see an interest in housemarket. The general view is that...
Many norwegians love Spain and have houses there.
The unemployment rate in Spain has been decreasing from 27% to 23% The latest monthsand figures coming out of Spain are improving. I think the housing amrket in Spain also have started to improve. I am only talking about a start of inprovement and the currency euro will start to rise again if this continious . It is to look at the small starting changes
  • #18,199
  • Edited 1:38am Mar 20, 2015 1:16am | Edited 1:38am
Quoting janpec1000
{quote} Yes. But bounce from this demand as many sellers were wiped out is very possible. We are nearly closed bellow FOMC levels so bears are defenetly in control, they never lost it, but many of bears did got bumped on head yesterday. I would preffer to see 0500 ish break for my system to work in its full state, other than risk on longer term for up bounce remains, but anything above 0700ish i think has been canceled.

It could be pump and dump or big money changing their positions. When things like this happen it can be a change. Movements we do not understand can indicate change in positions
  • #18,200
  • Edited 2:03am Mar 20, 2015 1:32am | Edited 2:03am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Let me bring in another argument: could it be, that rising property/housing prices are simply a reflection of easy money policy rather than better economic output?

Agree but QE makes the currency go lower. This makes it more attractive to invest in countries with low currencies than hight currencies.
IN US we could see the housing market from the figure above rise sharply afte QE1 2 and 3 and now after QE and rising USD investors go to low currencies markets like the eurosone and Asia.

In 2008 the Eur/USD was 1,57 at the highest . The property market in Spain was 40% higher.
Today in 2015 Eur/USD 1,07 and the property market is 40% lower. By changing the currency one gets 50% better value of the money. In addition to that one gets 40% more house than you would get in 2008. Together this is almost 100% more value of your money than in 2008 by investing in Spain.
With QE the currency goes lower and gives better economic output. but as soon as QE ends the money flow goes to other markets
There is also another change in Europe and this is the GPB which declined heavily in 2007 and money was taken out of south Europe and back to UK. Now they can go back and buy properties again due to the rising pount which give much more value for the money.

In addition to that QE keeps the interest rate low and give cheap loans in the market. In the same will see the figures for the UK worsening with the strong GPB
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