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  • #7,741
  • Mar 18, 2015 10:32am Mar 18, 2015 10:32am
Quoting StrayDog
And a question at the end - In case of dovish FOMC, is that means rate hike will be announced next time? Because next FOMC meeting is very soon, in 40 days time (Apr 29)... So SnP would do what exactly until then? Probably go to the previous highs and then what?
most Fed watchers think they would not announce a rate hike at a meeting that did not have a scheduled press conference - meetings with a press conference in 2015 are Mar, Jun, Sep, and Dec...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,742
  • Mar 18, 2015 11:27am Mar 18, 2015 11:27am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} most Fed watchers think they would not announce a rate hike at a meeting that did not have a scheduled press conference - meetings with a press conference in 2015 are Mar, Jun, Sep, and Dec...
Hey TF... Yes, you are right. I totally forgot about that... There are 8 meetings I think, over the year, but some are "more equal" than others. More important are those with press conference.

Waiting now... I "shorted" 2 coffees already... and some fruit... DAX is volatile today, SnP range bound... so far.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,743
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:18pm Mar 18, 2015 1:18pm
well, so much for my dreams of a correction...I have been corrected. I had $0.35 GTC's on all 60 SPY $210/$211 call diagonals expiring this week, and they were all hit on the spike. Otoh, I have some $195 SPY put calendars that are looking sad, as are several other shortish trades. But the SPY winners outbalance losers and I am well up, sitting on lotsa cash now. Actually feeling a little burnt out....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,744
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:23pm Mar 18, 2015 1:23pm
Quoting StrayDog
....No matter what will be AFTER the FOMC, I think that TODAY we will see rise in volatility. ...
That was one bad call... my account is bleeding like a pig... closed everything of that with loss. No vol spike today... VIX is going down again.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,745
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:30pm Mar 18, 2015 1:30pm
I am looking at SPY spreads, thought about fading the spike with a weekly bear put vertical, nah, looking at Mar5/Apr1 call diags or calendars, tried to fill those earlier & never did...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,746
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:37pm Mar 18, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at SPY spreads, thought about fading the spike with a weekly bear put vertical, nah, looking at Mar5/Apr1 call diags or calendars, tried to fill those earlier & never did...
trying a $213 Mar5/Apr1 call calendar for 5c
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,747
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:37pm Mar 18, 2015 1:37pm
Quoting The Fool
I am looking at SPY spreads, thought about fading the spike with a weekly bear put vertical, nah, looking at Mar5/Apr1 call diags or calendars, tried to fill those earlier & never did...
I have those diagonals you mentioned earlier... 10 x SPY March5/April1 216/216.50 calls for just comms... hope to make something on them...

I defended my USO Apr 17 short puts with same amount of 17 calls the other day. Closed calls for some profit now, cos CL is going up now on weak USD... will probably re-enter them, or 18 calls later.

add-on...
Scalped NQ CFDs f...ing LONG from 4400 to 4417
(nobody makes money shorting it, so.... )
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,748
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:41pm Mar 18, 2015 1:41pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} That was one bad call... my account is bleeding like a pig... closed everything of that with loss. No vol spike today... VIX is going down again.
bears swept away in risk liquidity flood, bull market is safe for new highs, everything is being bought - stocks, UST's, pm's, even oil....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,749
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:52pm Mar 18, 2015 1:52pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} bears swept away in risk liquidity flood, bull market is safe for new highs, everything is being bought - stocks, UST's, pm's, even oil....
Yeah, Oil is going up on dollar weakness, just look at EUR/USD... I just wonder is this going to have some lasting effect. More on EUR than on Oil, IMO.

Strategy for a few days ahead - BTFD on NQ... majority of companies affected by strong dollar are there. It was the strongest index.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,750
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:54pm Mar 18, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting StrayDog
{quote} I have those diagonals you mentioned earlier... 10 x SPY March5/April1 216/216.50 calls for just comms...
I could never fill those, wisht I had. trying also SPY $215 calls calendar for $0.03....even BABA may finish today in the green - do you think there may be a chance for a dump there, near term....could close put spread @ near b/e now...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,751
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:54pm Mar 18, 2015 1:54pm
Quoting The Fool
well, so much for my dreams of a correction...I have been corrected. I had $0.35 GTC's on all 60 SPY $210/$211 call diagonals expiring this week, and they were all hit on the spike. Otoh, I have some $195 SPY put calendars that are looking sad, as are several other shortish trades. But the SPY winners outbalance losers and I am well up, sitting on lotsa cash now. Actually feeling a little burnt out....
Know the burnt-out feeling ... . Ordinarily, I'm at work during these FOMC events (best not to watch if a short-term train wreck occurs), but had the day off ... . The movement can be nerve-wracking ... . And I said I wasn't entertained enough with Forex ... .

Took my eye off oil for a bit ... . Looked like it was going to slide past 40 there ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #7,752
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:58pm Mar 18, 2015 1:58pm
Been piddling around trying to get my options account set up in the best way possible. Unfortunately, a Roth isn't an option for me right now (which would be sweet), and I'd be subject to the pattern day trader rule (what doink thought that up?) if I didn't move money around quite a bit ... .

In all likelihood, will just set up an ordinary brokerage account (non-IRA) and push extra into the 401(k) to offset any gains ... . The IRA rules blow if you've got an employer retirement plan (hate the funds they offer; can't do jack with moving the money around ... ).
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #7,753
  • Mar 18, 2015 2:14pm Mar 18, 2015 2:14pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I could never fill those, wisht I had. trying also SPY $215 calls calendar for $0.03....even BABA may finish today in the green - do you think there may be a chance for a dump there, near term....could close put spread @ near b/e now...
Well I filled that by legging in... Positioned myself on both sides on same price, and when it came, I entered... pressed buy/sell quickly...
Very difficult to get a fill like a spread, even on SPY, with weekly options, and strikes on $0.5...

I am an idiot... took 17 points on Nasdaq... 30+ on the table now... oh, just BTFD...

A fine example how algos read the entire statement in 0.1 microseconds and hit BUY
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,754
  • Mar 18, 2015 2:36pm Mar 18, 2015 2:36pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
In all likelihood, will just set up an ordinary brokerage account (non-IRA) and push extra into the 401(k) to offset any gains ... . The IRA rules blow if you've got an employer retirement plan
something to be said for going the brokerage account route, anyway - you can get the account up above the PDT limit quicker...if you're well heeled, get it up to the portfolio margin limit & that will really make a difference in trading doors opened

personally, I have learned to live with the limitations, now I just need to learn to trade....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,755
  • Mar 18, 2015 2:37pm Mar 18, 2015 2:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I could never fill those, wisht I had. trying also SPY $215 calls calendar for $0.03....even BABA may finish today in the green - do you think there may be a chance for a dump there, near term....could close put spread @ near b/e now...
Yeah, potential sellers are now looking at overall market and not to keen to press sell... Slim chances at best.

You are looking again at March5 / Apr1 combos I guess?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,756
  • Mar 18, 2015 2:55pm Mar 18, 2015 2:55pm
Quoting StrayDog
You are looking again at March5 / Apr1 combos I guess?
Right, no fills...no rush. I will hang in BABA & see what the next day or so brings - I see it is dipping red but not too deep, yet....

Have a good evening SDog...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,757
  • Mar 18, 2015 3:14pm Mar 18, 2015 3:14pm
Quoting The Fool
Right, no fills...no rush...
Yup... as we know, it takes a considerable time to get a fill. So, just be patient. No rush.
ah that FED lingo, it just sticks to you
#sarcasam
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,758
  • Mar 18, 2015 5:38pm Mar 18, 2015 5:38pm
Quoting StrayDog
Yeah, definitely the way to go, we must not have a bias, UNLESS it is crystal clear where the market is going... I expect we will get some clarity today. .....
And clarity we got. BTFD. Indices will at least test previous highs, and then, off we go... to new ones. Rate hikes fear are over, correction will come one day, but reason for it will be something else. Interested to see development around Oil now... Started to like trading it... Buy EUR dip? Oh, man... Say bye, bye, to parity now.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,759
  • Mar 18, 2015 6:03pm Mar 18, 2015 6:03pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} something to be said for going the brokerage account route, anyway - you can get the account up above the PDT limit quicker...if you're well heeled, get it up to the portfolio margin limit & that will really make a difference in trading doors opened personally, I have learned to live with the limitations, now I just need to learn to trade....
Good to know ... . Likely to go primarily the non-directional route -- strangles and such. As with all things, I'm going to demo the crap of things before wading in with live money ... . It's been since the dot.com bubble since I bothered to look at individual equities, so I may stick to the indices ... . Less to research, frankly ... .

I do tend to watch crude a heckuvalot for some reason (Loonie trades, probs), though, so I may dabble there, too ... .

Lotta crap on dough.com that will probably be good to look over ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #7,760
  • Mar 18, 2015 6:06pm Mar 18, 2015 6:06pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Good to know ... . Likely to go primarily the non-directional route -- strangles and such. As with all things, I'm going to demo the crap of things before wading in with live money ... . It's been since the dot.com bubble since I bothered to look at individual equities, so I may stick to the indices ... . Less to research, frankly ... . I do tend to watch crude a heckuvalot for some reason (Loonie trades, probs), though, so I may dabble there, too ... . Lotta crap on dough.com that will probably be good to look over ... .
They make it look slick and easy, which is probably a dangerous thing for the vast majority of folks ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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