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  • #81
  • Mar 17, 2015 1:22am Mar 17, 2015 1:22am
Quoting Decima
GBPAUD looking goood. The pair managed to to establish itself above the EMA21. I have resistance at 1.94610, it will need to be crossed as well. Dovish comment last night from the RBA about lowering the interest rate. This is something that is expected and to a large degree is priced into the market. Still, the European session might send the pair a little higher. If it trades above the 1.94600, I have the next area of resistance at 1.96000. If the first resistance is crossed rangebound trading within these levels is a possibility. More speeches...
For GBPAUD i am just trading it on a day to day base since both currencies are fundamentally weak. I am just mainly aiming for its juicy intra-day swings. I am very curious to see how these long trades are going to work out for you. I'd never be able to do it because my stop order is usually very tight.

Same as you, I'd love to have fundamental elements put into making my decisions, too. for this case of GBP pairs for now, for anything longer term, I'd rather go for AUDUSD where fundamental reasoning are contrasted fairly well these days.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #82
  • Mar 17, 2015 2:52am Mar 17, 2015 2:52am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} For GBPAUD i am just trading it on a day to day base since both currencies are fundamentally weak. I am just mainly aiming for its juicy intra-day swings. I am very curious to see how these long trades are going to work out for you. I'd never be able to do it because my stop order is usually very tight. Same as you, I'd love to have fundamental elements put into making my decisions, too. for this case of GBP pairs for now, for anything longer term, I'd rather go for AUDUSD where fundamental reasoning are contrasted fairly well these days....
My experience with most of the GBP pairs (except GBPUSD and EURGBP), is that you need a looser stop-loss, I tend to scale down positions with these pairs, unless the signals are very strong. My time horizon is normally the next movement I hopefully can profit from. This movement can often last ut to a week, even though I am often not able to realize the full potential of the move, by exiting to soon.

I agree with the AUDUSD for longer term based on fundamentals.

For now with GBPAUD, a little worrying is that price seems to reflect of the resistance it has touched. Still, I try to never make any decisons on open signals. The 4h TF is where I trade from. So if no stops are activated I wait until the close of the current candle before doing any changes.

Also, before entry was made, I anticipated sideways movement untill Wednesday as a possibility.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #83
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:25am Mar 17, 2015 3:25am
Pardon my interruption,

I've got a question regarding the Gbp/Nzd:

I have been studying this particular pair for a few weeks now, trying to get a grasp on how to trade it, and I have come to the conclusion it may be the most heavily marked up/marked down pair in FX. It certainly is attractive with the daily-monthly pip ranges. But it is quite a beast. Makes trading the Gbp/Jpy look tame. I've tried comparing the opposing currencies in times of strength and weakness to find some sort of correlation to price action without any sense of consistency. But comparing this pair with the Cable does occasionally expose some heavy divergence that can be exploited.

Does anybody know of a highly positive or negative correlation for this pair?

I would like to add this bit of information...I have noticed that since this pair is highly volatile, there is a link between the actual Bid Ask spread on high volume and price action. By that I mean high volume, high spread (50 pips and higher) and wide range bars are observed to serve as meaningful support and resistance when marked with horizontal markers on the top and bottom of the respective bar.

Thanks,

coondawg71
  • #84
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:29am Mar 17, 2015 3:29am
GBPJPY

PA On the move off, the 180.00 level.
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #85
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:45am Mar 17, 2015 3:45am
GBPAUD

PA got rejected and sent back below the channel.

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Back to the 1.9300, again.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #86
  • Mar 17, 2015 4:14am Mar 17, 2015 4:14am
GBPAUD this week has moved up 180 pips and now down 170 pips. This might be a sideways channel the pair will move inside. What is going on right now might be accumulation, this is just speculation from me, as I don`t know enough about it to base my trades on it.

I am still bullish on the pair but also prepared to recognise that I have been wrong and exit the long position. I will enter short pos if that is the direction it will take.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #87
  • Mar 17, 2015 6:02am Mar 17, 2015 6:02am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} When trading volatility pairs in this thread. It is the risk plan and mental discipline that would face the most challenge. If these volatility pairs, if the trend changes, it would most likely to continue, therefore, I'd kill the position right away instead of giving it rooms to run 80 pips against me. My RR must be above 1:1, and i think the 1:1 should be very standard RR in the trading business. If this is also the rule you are using, within these pairs, you would probably spot 2, 3 setups per week during Tokyo or London Opening. If you...
Thanks for your reply. I agree its not nice to watch a trade go to the stop...but I have found over long testing and trading that the size of the stop is very important if you want consistent results....for example last month yielded 5 losers with 10 winners....if patient and hold the TP of 100 this results in a nice gain of 600 pips. It can and will move 70 pips against you and then come back.....it would be nice to kill the trade when losing but then its the struggle with spotting a good place to re-enter etc.....Getting good entries using this break out strategy. Have been mostly trading the gbp-jpy...been locking profits as they arise and with positive results.Today sold gbp-jpy at 179.648...currently got 40 points locked in profit....hoping for more selling.There is always the taking partial profits after half of the target and moving the rest to break even.....bla bla...we already know all the etc etc....do whatever works for the individual I guess....if you are making gains its nice.Been a good time with clear breakouts of price round the london open. Using S/R levels round important numbers keeps me out of a few bad ones.Good trading to all anyway.
  • #88
  • Mar 17, 2015 8:55am Mar 17, 2015 8:55am
all pairs ranging pretty heavily still no clear buy/sell signals for me besides a few scalps, no defined signals either way. I remain short biased on GBP pairs going into end of the week overall long term bias still up.
  • #89
  • Mar 17, 2015 9:26am Mar 17, 2015 9:26am
Have been trying to calculate what could be a good proxy to the liquidity streaming into the market.

Most pairs I have checked on have been low the whole week. With all the news releases coming up, this is understandable.

Below is a picture of the proxy of the liquidity for the GBPNZD. If this is valid, then liquidity is still low but increasing. To start of bigger moves it should be higher. The same is happening with the GBPAUD as well.

http://i.imgur.com/G7yFI7y.jpg
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #90
  • Mar 17, 2015 11:09am Mar 17, 2015 11:09am
GBPNZD 1h TF. More "liquidity" behind the current move upwards than last friday.

The pair testing the EMA21 line on the 4h TF.

http://i.imgur.com/1t3LMsq.jpg
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #91
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:53pm Mar 17, 2015 3:53pm
Quoting Forexmeoff
{quote} Thanks for your reply. I agree its not nice to watch a trade go to the stop...but I have found over long testing and trading that the size of the stop is very important if you want consistent results....for example last month yielded 5 losers with 10 winners....if patient and hold the TP of 100 this results in a nice gain of 600 pips. It can and will move 70 pips against you and then come back.....it would be nice to kill the trade when losing but then its the struggle with spotting a good place to re-enter etc.....Getting good entries using...
100 pips stop at 1:1 might be too much trading UJ if we aim to place at least one or two trades per week. But for GN, GA and GJ, it's totally doable while their daily ATR 14 are all above 200. So there you go.

I would like to discuss this subject further later on since I myself often use 20-30 pips stop and found it quite interesting. If you don't mind, please feel free to share some trades of yours, so it would give us some better idea on where and when you would place your trades.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #92
  • Mar 17, 2015 3:58pm Mar 17, 2015 3:58pm
Quoting Decima
Have been trying to calculate what could be a good proxy to the liquidity streaming into the market. Most pairs I have checked on have been low the whole week. With all the news releases coming up, this is understandable. Below is a picture of the proxy of the liquidity for the GBPNZD. If this is valid, then liquidity is still low but increasing. To start of bigger moves it should be higher. The same is happening with the GBPAUD as well. {image}
Yeah we got some major bombs lined up in the next 36 hours.
Attached Image


Fun time
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #93
  • Mar 17, 2015 4:02pm Mar 17, 2015 4:02pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Yeah we got some major bombs lined up in the next 36 hours. {image} Fun time
It is like a minefield

Still it is the path I choose to walk. I currently have three open positions. I am considering two more when the current 4h candle closes in 1 hour.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #94
  • Mar 17, 2015 4:04pm Mar 17, 2015 4:04pm
Quoting Decima
It is like a minefield Still it is the path I choose to walk.
I wait.

Good luck, brave solider.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #95
  • Mar 17, 2015 4:11pm Mar 17, 2015 4:11pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I wait. Good luck, brave solider.
Thanks man. I believe the GBP will strenghten tomorrow and NZD will weaken. I just try to follow the system.

It might lead me past the mines
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #96
  • Mar 17, 2015 6:02pm Mar 17, 2015 6:02pm
GBPJPY

Let's see what happens on the 179.00 level today in Tokyo opening hours.

If the 179.00 level fails to hold we might have a possible extension to 178.20, and then the 177.50.
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GBP red news will be up in couple hours. We will see what happens.
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #97
  • Mar 17, 2015 6:35pm Mar 17, 2015 6:35pm
GBPAUD

GBPAUD found its ground on the 1.9300 level. Range is set at 1.9300 and 1.9450 as we moving towards the London section and some major GBP news.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 335 KB
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #98
  • Mar 18, 2015 12:08am Mar 18, 2015 12:08am
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} 100 pips stop at 1:1 might be too much trading UJ if we aim to place at least one or two trades per week. But for GN, GA and GJ, it's totally doable while their daily ATR 14 are all above 200. So there you go. I would like to discuss this subject further later on since I myself often use 20-30 pips stop and found it quite interesting. If you don't mind, please feel free to share some trades of yours, so it would give us some better idea on where and when you would place your trades.
20-30 pips stops on gbp crosses...yeah...I tried that and was getting too many losses...if you sneeze or cough it stops you out....ha ha.

It looks nice when price is stalling before the london open, the orders pretty much straddle the price action like last week has been ideal conditions. Wasnt a big fan of this type of trading before...but think I was trying to do it at the wrong time of day...asian session or US. So revisited it and did alot of tedious testing and now have gone live with small lots.

Trades I took yesterday and the day before, posted below. Had many failings in forex...so I dont like to try to pick which direction I "think" the price is going. Seems better to let the market move and decide that. Like everything you try with trading there are some losses...but we aim for the wins to be greater than the losses giving the end result, a profit.
70 pip stop and 100 pip take profit, gives an edge to the winning side. Have had a couple hit the stops this month...on gbp aud......might concentrate on gbp jpy for now....still up about 400 pips since 1.3.2015

The losers come about when price opens and order then turns round the other way quickly... need to be cautious with the setting of orders round heavy s / r areas.

16.3.2015 : buy order opened, cancel sell order. This one failed to reach take profit. Woke up next day to see price stalled and locked in 30 pips and wait to see. Result: stopped out for +30 before the next london open.

17.3.2015 : Orders set. Sell order opened, cancel buy order. This one reached take profit of 100 but I got eager and locked some profit at 75 pips. Result : stopped out for +75.
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  • #99
  • Mar 18, 2015 1:03am Mar 18, 2015 1:03am
Less than 4 hours left before the numbers and minutes from UK is released.

When the current 4h candle closes, GBPNZD will close and establish itself above the EMA21 line. Still the highs from last friday hasn`t been crossed. When the Frankfurt session has finished its first 1h of trading, in two hours we might get more clues. Maybe further confirmation when London has done the same, in three hours from now. I have further resistance at 2.03420, above 200 pips to the north.

GBPAUD is trying to cross the EMA21 line, still hasn`t succeeded in either doing this or reaching the highs from this week, testing resistance at 1,94610. For clues on possible direction, the same goes with regards to the Frankfurt and London session.

Things are looking decent enough for long position on both pairs. I see no reason to close the longs on neither pair at this point.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #100
  • Mar 18, 2015 3:26am Mar 18, 2015 3:26am
Good luck, guys. I am sitting this one out including tomorrow's FOMC.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
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