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  • #21
  • Mar 9, 2015 1:17am Mar 9, 2015 1:17am
Hi Ssaqeel,


How you draw the rectangle , any rules to follow up? Or just most clusters.
Thanks
Peter
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1425871651
  • #22
  • Mar 9, 2015 11:13am Mar 9, 2015 11:13am
its just the manually drawn rectangle based on how the price reacted in that area ( price on the left side)

Quoting xyz555
Hi Ssaqeel, How you draw the rectangle , any rules to follow up? Or just most clusters. Thanks Peter {image}
  • #23
  • Mar 9, 2015 5:11pm Mar 9, 2015 5:11pm
one more harmonic pattern (bat) on 1 hr . maybe chinese data 2night will complete this .

Quoting ssaqeel
Thanks Fxsaywhat for starting this thread. GN on a 4hr chart, i will be interested to sell this near black trend line(potential C of ABCD). If you look at the left side in the top rectangle , this area could act as a good resistance for today's up move . If the PA respects that than i will join the train for the down move. {image}
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  • #24
  • Mar 9, 2015 9:27pm Mar 9, 2015 9:27pm
I did not like trading these pairs years ago as I thought they were too volatile. Now I find that you need this volatility to achieve some points in forex.

Been having some success with a straddle type move on these currencies. Got 100 points out yesterday with the buy order....the sell order missed opening by about 2 points (good luck)....Nature of the beast.

I only set orders before the London session based on a breakout type of move....of course you get some losers but get some good winners....the hard part I find is holding it long enough for the take profit to be hit...moving the stop to lock in profits on these pairs generally stops you out due to the pullbacks being quite large....if you hold out, alot of the time 100 or more points are achievable.

I have tried taking small profits and tight stops...but just cant get consistent results....so now I find the 70 point stop and 100 Tp work ok with Gbp - Jpy and Gbp - Aud. With gbp - nzd I put the stop to 80.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #25
  • Mar 15, 2015 5:00am Mar 15, 2015 5:00am
If price continues to decline, around 400 pips further south price will encounter support and the trendline at the same time. Possible primary trend continuation of price and a good opportunity to go long on the pair.

http://i.imgur.com/ANqB6AT.jpg
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #26
  • Mar 15, 2015 1:48pm Mar 15, 2015 1:48pm
GBPNZD
When the 2.0100 level breaks, do we see another touchdown on the 1.9350?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #27
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:00pm Mar 15, 2015 2:00pm
Quoting Forexmeoff
I did not like trading these pairs years ago as I thought they were too volatile. Now I find that you need this volatility to achieve some points in forex. Been having some success with a straddle type move on these currencies. Got 100 points out yesterday with the buy order....the sell order missed opening by about 2 points (good luck)....Nature of the beast. I only set orders before the London session based on a breakout type of move....of course you get some losers but get some good winners....the hard part I find is holding it long enough for...
When trading volatility pairs in this thread. It is the risk plan and mental discipline that would face the most challenge.
If these volatility pairs, if the trend changes, it would most likely to continue, therefore, I'd kill the position right away instead of giving it rooms to run 80 pips against me.

My RR must be above 1:1, and i think the 1:1 should be very standard RR in the trading business. If this is also the rule you are using, within these pairs, you would probably spot 2, 3 setups per week during Tokyo or London Opening. If you finding yourself often enter the market, I'd say you are not following your RR.

Good luck and Cheers.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #28
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:10pm Mar 15, 2015 2:10pm
Quoting Decima
If price continues to decline, around 400 pips further south price will encounter support and the trendline at the same time.
I wouldn't get these 400 pips slip through my finger tips, would i?
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #29
  • Mar 15, 2015 2:27pm Mar 15, 2015 2:27pm
My 3 favorite pairs to trade. Here's my forecasts and break downs for the week.

We have just recently tested the 178.2 major support zone, and rising trendline and have since bounced back up to above the 178.85/75 support zone/50% fibo and price is currently around 179. Going into next week I would be looking for a further bounce upwards towards the 181.5 level on the daily. Of course, this requires breaking several smaller resistance zones on the way up. I'm not one to trade the news but this week FOMC will play a large role in future market directions. I have mapped out what i believe to be 3 scenarios for GJ going forward. 1) a continuation of the overall uptrend towards the 200 price point. 2) a move back up to 187/8 daily support zone and continue to range between 187/175 with a pull back to the rising TL. 3) a break downwards and continuation down towards 170. Of course PA is the only thing to follow here and we will just have to wait and see what the market decides. I will be watching the 178.85/75 support zone at open and will be looking for a retest if holds will look to get long if breaks will look for shorts. If it holds 179.5/6 resistance is next up and will watch PA there and will look to add for retrace back towards 181.5 as per my outlook/plan.

My outlook for GBP/AUD. Will be watching 1.92 very closely. If respected will look to get long around there. Approaching key point on the monthly and if the trend we have been setting on the daily continues we should see another leg upwards around 1.92. 1.92 area is also 38.2% fibo on monthly an area I will be looking at closely for sure.

GBP/NZD NZD We are approaching key month support zone around 2.00650 will be looking for action around that level if broken will look for short further down to the 1.98 level if respected will look for confirmation and then start taking longs.
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  • #30
  • Mar 15, 2015 3:22pm Mar 15, 2015 3:22pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} I wouldn't get these 400 pips slip through my finger tips, would i?
I suppose you as well, would like to add them to your account

Exciting week ahead
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #31
  • Mar 15, 2015 4:03pm Mar 15, 2015 4:03pm
Hello guys. Just wanna share GBP/AUD for next week. I seems that if the resistance at 1.92770 does not hold, which is most likely, given the equalities setting, we gonna see a drop to 1.9000, which shall be the best place to long the pair. Hopefully FED does not make too much noise on crossess.
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  • #32
  • Mar 15, 2015 5:11pm Mar 15, 2015 5:11pm
Quoting chester123
Hello guys. Just wanna share GBP/AUD for next week. I seems that if the resistance at 1.92770 does not hold, which is most likely, given the equalities setting, we gonna see a drop to 1.9000, which shall be the best place to long the pair. Hopefully FED does not make too much noise on crossess. {image}
Support does not guarantee a bounce. It never would. So let's try not to stop a falling knife unless there is indication of bulls coming back to the market. cheers.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #33
  • Mar 15, 2015 5:12pm Mar 15, 2015 5:12pm
Quoting Decima
{quote} I suppose you as well, would like to add them to your account Exciting week ahead
Well what i was trying to say was i felt that you saw the forest but not the tree (the falling price with 400 pips room) in front of you.

Good luck.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #34
  • Mar 15, 2015 6:14pm Mar 15, 2015 6:14pm
Thanks mate for the remark. Just wanted to point out some important areas. But of course - you right just share once u think the bulls may be back.

Quoting FXSayWhat
{quote} Support does not guarantee a bounce. It never would. So let's try not to stop a falling knife unless there is indication of bulls coming back to the market. cheers.
  • #35
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:11pm Mar 15, 2015 7:11pm
This is my channel trade setup (GA), I entered towards end of last week. We'll see if it works, and if I have enough patience/discipline to get the 488 pip target. But if the channel pattern continues, should hit target by end of week... Obviously last weeks sell-off was aggressive. But this is strong trending pair, so hoping it turns on a dime, and away we go!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #36
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:19pm Mar 15, 2015 7:19pm
My GN channel trade setup... Similar to GA, aggressive sell off last week, but we'll see if 746 pip target can be achieved...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #37
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:24pm Mar 15, 2015 7:24pm
Quoting benaiah
My GN channel trade setup... Similar to GA, aggressive sell off last week, but we'll see if 746 pip target can be achieved... {image}
idk if I would buy right yet, wait for a reversal signal before entering long on either pair. GU just broke year long support levels and GBP is looking rather weak.
  • #38
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:26pm Mar 15, 2015 7:26pm
GJ looked good as well, similar setup and was in long last week, but I closed it out last week to minimize my risk (had too many trades open). Tempted to go back in for 650 pips, and 1:8 R:R. But will wait for a valid reversal pattern on H1 or H4...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #39
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:39pm Mar 15, 2015 7:39pm
Quoting thegmann
{quote} idk if I would buy right yet, wait for a reversal signal before entering long on either pair. GU just broke year long support levels and GBP is looking rather weak.
Okay, I can't say I disagree with you on this in terms of technical analysis. My primary strategies are based on candlestick patterns for entry. But for GA/GN trades above, I decided to go for it... As far as weak GU, I don't worry about that. GU has been falling for a while now, but GA still managed a 400+ pip bounce off bottom of channel week before last...
  • #40
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:44pm Mar 15, 2015 7:44pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Okay, I can't say I disagree with you on this in terms of technical analysis. My primary strategies are based on candlestick patterns for entry. But for GA/GN trades above, I decided to go for it... As far as week GU, I don't worry about that. GU has been falling for a while now, but GA still managed a 400+ pip bounce off bottom of channel week before last...
Yes but past performance doesn't guarantee the future. There is room for downside as well as further upside best to sit aside and let market decide what the right way is rather than trying to pick bottoms etc. and then go with the market. I am also long biased on GBP vs the crosses in the long term but could be wrong and will let PA decide and will take the trade in whichever direction it goes. We're at critical levels here price can go either way.
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