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  • #7,701
  • Mar 13, 2015 11:34am Mar 13, 2015 11:34am
Off-topic

I don't really know how some people have a job at Morgan Stanley... (and on many other firms)
A good paying job, I assume:

Re TSLA (from Tesla Motors roundup: Management realignment, F/X concerns, Orwellian twist)
"A video note from Morgan Stanley isn't particularly helpful. Tesla shares could multiple by 10X or lose half their value during a wild ride, surmises MS."

So, THAT is analyses? Let me repeat that, because it SUCH A GOOD ANALYSES:
It can go x10 or x1/2... WTF!!!

Or Bob Janjuah, chief strategist at Nomura, perma-bear last idk how many years of bull market?
Who pays these guys? They are like directors in communist countries, nobody can touch them? Private capital, hellloooooooooo.... reputation going to the drain... Just fire them...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,702
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:02pm Mar 13, 2015 12:02pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} thx, I'm waiting on that DAX to show weakness on very long term charts
Well, DAX is 11.950 now, so they obviously wants to see how it is at 12.000... DAX to the sky, EUR and Oil to the mud...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,703
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:15pm Mar 13, 2015 12:15pm
I am hanging onto all Mar expiry options until next week...I bet the bulls can put on one more show before the FOMC. If we drop hard, I have lots of traps waiting down below....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,704
  • Edited 1:39pm Mar 13, 2015 12:24pm | Edited 1:39pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...oan?cmpid=yhoo

Every time FXCM announces the sale of one of these assets, the share price will pop....I may cash out of Mar $2.50 long call b4 the end of today, but I will hang in Mar/May $5 calendar and see what the $5 May long calls bring for a $0.05 net debit.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,705
  • Mar 13, 2015 1:49pm Mar 13, 2015 1:49pm
So, what can we expect of US indices in this final 70 or so minutes... selling into the close, new lows?
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,706
  • Mar 13, 2015 2:31pm Mar 13, 2015 2:31pm
Quoting StrayDog
So, what can we expect of US indices in this final 70 or so minutes... selling into the close, new lows?
Don't you worry, SDog, Granma Yellen is gonna chase away those bad old bears. She is as kind as she is patient. Next week is gonna be so nice, I can hardly wait. Have a good break, bud.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,707
  • Mar 13, 2015 2:55pm Mar 13, 2015 2:55pm
Yeah you too, TF... nice weekend... more like buying into the close....

I watched AMZN 370 calls for today expiry... last 40 minutes on them was from $0.06 to $1.20... yup, x20... in 40 minutes... u/l moved from like $368 to $371.xx
$1.60 now, with u/l at $371.50, and a few minutes to close.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,708
  • Mar 13, 2015 3:15pm Mar 13, 2015 3:15pm
Quoting StrayDog
Yeah you too, TF... nice weekend... more like buying into the close.... I watched AMZN 370 calls for today expiry... last 40 minutes on them was from $0.06 to $1.20... yup, x20... in 40 minutes... u/l moved from like $368 to $371.xx $1.60 now, with u/l at $371.50, and a few minutes to close.
careful, StrayDog, you might end up a gamma junkie like Cecil Gee......ciao
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,709
  • Edited 3:33pm Mar 13, 2015 3:23pm | Edited 3:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} careful, StrayDog, you might end up a gamma junkie like Cecil Gee......ciao
Ain't nothing like gamma full-house when there're huge waves like these
Have a nice weekend
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #7,710
  • Mar 14, 2015 1:57pm Mar 14, 2015 1:57pm
/CL dropped $5 in the last week - so is it a bear trap or another hot leg down for crude? I read conflicting messages, but if the contango play is fizzling, as some suggest, then we could see /CL break through prior low level and drop quickly to $40 or below. USO puts are cheap, the P/L below is for Mar long $15.5 puts @ $0.12 debit, a 10-lot. Maybe we get a flash of USD weakness, a little /CL bounce to sell into...?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-14_uso.png Size: 34 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,711
  • Edited 4:28pm Mar 14, 2015 4:08pm | Edited 4:28pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Don't you worry, SDog, Granma Yellen is gonna chase away those bad old bears. She is as kind as she is patient. Next week is gonna be so nice, I can hardly wait.
Oh man, are we there yet?

I am looking for SnP to bounce a little on Mon-Tue, I will be happy with anything >SPY $206.50. I will be looking to close any bullish positions by Tue-Wed. Then I will be looking to trade weekly bearish spreads in anticipation of a FOMC-induced panic...looking for a $6-$8 red candle for the week, possibly SPY < $200.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,712
  • Mar 15, 2015 10:25am Mar 15, 2015 10:25am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Oh man, are we there yet? I am looking for SnP to bounce a little on Mon-Tue, I will be happy with anything >SPY $206.50. I will be looking to close any bullish positions by Tue-Wed. Then I will be looking to trade weekly bearish spreads in anticipation of a FOMC-induced panic...looking for a $6-$8 red candle for the week, possibly SPY < $200.
Sounds like a plan. SnP reacted like it should, on every S/R level last week. We should again find good levels for shorting that rip... I need VXX above $29.14 for March bull put spreads. That is a thing when you do them too close to the price, on self-eroding instrument... Apr 25/23 bull put spreads looking way better.

IWM looks the strongest, which is kinda a logical in relationship with strong dollar, since that affect bigger companies. Interesting times.
Cheering for a massive tsunami of BABA selling...

I will be looking at credit spreads also, especially if I see VIX in vicinity of $20... "Tricky" thing with VIX options is that they expire a day before FOMC, so volatility plays could be done with VXX / UVXY...
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,713
  • Mar 15, 2015 4:03pm Mar 15, 2015 4:03pm
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/...re-paper-says/
"The Fed may have succeeded in 2013 in convincing market participants that slowing the pace of bond purchases is a separate decision from decisions about the path of future interest rates, the economists wrote. Our analysis suggests that whenever the decision to tighten policy is made, then the instability seen in summer of 2013 is likely to reappear."

Yeah, no shit, Sherlock. Looking back, the May-Jun '13 SnP drop was 120+ pts in 4-5 weeks; the Aug '13 drop was 90 pts in 3-4 weeks. We have already done seen 70 pts off in the last 3 weeks. This coming (assumed, maybe I'm wrong, who knows) drop maybe bigger than previous "tantrum" drops....could we maybe get a true correction? I want to see a steady slide down to the Oct '14 dump bottom, down to SPY $181.xx---250 pts in the next 8-10 weeks.

SPY May $196/$195 vertical puts debits $0.20, has about a 4:1 return for a move below $191 by 5/15. (Maybe find better than this as I keep looking.)

The above scenario might play out with increasing USD strength, increasing crude oil weakness....rotation into EZ assets, etc..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,714
  • Mar 15, 2015 4:17pm Mar 15, 2015 4:17pm
Quoting The Fool
...could we maybe get a true correction? I want to see a steady slide down to the Oct '14 dump bottom, down to SPY $181.xx---250 pts in the next 8-10 weeks. SPY May $196/$195 vertical puts debits $0.20, has about a 4:1 return for a move below $191 by 5/15.
try funding it with nearer term otm SPY credit spreads, like Mar5 short $212/$213 calls for $0.08 credit....to start
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,715
  • Edited 4:47pm Mar 15, 2015 4:31pm | Edited 4:47pm
a sustained index drop as fantasized above would bring back some volatility, and we could see UVXY hanging around in the high $20's or low $30's, with maybe spike(s) above $50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015-03-15_uvxy.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,716
  • Mar 15, 2015 4:57pm Mar 15, 2015 4:57pm
http://www.marctomarket.com/2015/03/...mc-is-key.html
"If the Fed does not drop the word patience, expectations of a June hike will ease considerably. This would likely spur a dollar correction and a rally in US stocks and bonds. If the Fed drops the word patience but softens this inflation expectation, this would also be a dovish development and weigh on the dollar and lift stocks and bonds."

That's it in a nutshell - this week's FOMC is going to be a binary event with large and persistent moves either way resulting. I have been positioning myself bearish but I am def open to the possibility of bullish rally. I think it will be possible to play weekly or st 2-sided trades on this event and make money....will be posting those as I get into them, no rush, would like to see what happens to the US indices, fiber, and oil in the new week.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,717
  • Edited 7:35pm Mar 15, 2015 5:17pm | Edited 7:35pm
Quoting The Fool
no rush, would like to see what happens to the US indices, fiber, and oil in the new week.
very early. /CL crashing, looking for <$44.00, sure it will find it by NY Monday...

(lol, /CL dipped and made a new low $0.01 below the prior low from 1/25/15.)
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,718
  • Edited 10:10am Mar 16, 2015 9:37am | Edited 10:10am
Hm... what a spike in BABA... $85 now...


ah.. stimulus...
Alibaba +3.4% as China talks stimulus; Yahoo +2%
Hope is dangerous in this game.
  • #7,719
  • Mar 16, 2015 11:45am Mar 16, 2015 11:45am
Quoting StrayDog
Hm... what a spike in BABA... $85 now... ah.. stimulus...
Maybe the dilution breakdown trade not looking so good now, whaddaya think?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #7,720
  • Mar 16, 2015 11:53am Mar 16, 2015 11:53am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} Maybe the dilution breakdown trade not looking so good now, whaddaya think?
We have defined risk trade on it... so idk, price went up as we expected (to fall from a higher level ), I will hold... a lot of shares coming...
Bearish FOMC would be great help, though.
Hope is dangerous in this game.
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