vsa with Malcolm

Thanks SD, you've made life easier for me, you have earned yourself some karmic points, enjoy.


anyone lookin to short GBPJPY?

First off, if anyone has a recommendation for a good free screen capture program, I would appreciate it.

A quick lesson in confirmation.

You do not need a dialog box to tell you if an indication of strength or weakness is confirmed. All you have to do is look at the close of the bar proceeding the indication. If the indication was for strength, it would be confirmed if the next bar is UP. If the indication was for weakness, it would be confirmed if the next bar closes DOWN.

Check out the chart below,

Point A is an indication of strength. The next bar closes up (we can easily know this because the bar is BLUE). But we are in a down trend. Price is below the BPL, Chart Mode I is red and Chart Mode II is also red. Point B itself is an indication of Weakness. If you are very aggressive, you might want to get short after this interval. However, the fact that it is confirming the previous indication of strength, should give you pause. The interval following point B does not confirm, as it closes UP. This interval, point C, is a test. It is a narrow range bar on very high volume. Tests are probes lower to look for sellers. The high volume here tells us that sellers have been found. So this test, fails. Another way of looking at this is, the next interval closes DOWN so the test is not confirmed. A failed test or an unconfirmed test in a downtrend is a sign of weakness.

Three intervals after our test, there is an indication of weakness. No Demand. At this point one could be looking to get short by placing an order just below the low of this bar. That order would not get hit on the next bar. That next bar, does not have a signal on it, but it is clearly No Demand. It is an UP bar with volume less than the previous two bars. This No Demand is confirmed with the next bar DOWN, point D. An order placed just below the low of the ND would not have been triggered. Point D is a squat. The range is narrowing while the volume is increasing. Since point D closes lower than the previous bar, it is not only a sign of weakness in itself, but also confirmation of the No demand.

At point D, we have a confirmed sign of weakness immediately to our left. And point D itself is a sign of weakness. We place an order to short the market just below the low of point D. The next interval brings us into the market, and ultimately confirms point D as it closes DOWN.

Awesome write up!

Thanks and kudos to Hidden Gap for his instructive analysis.

I use this one, nagging screen once in a while but quite straight-forward http://www.screenpresso.com/

What are those modes? MA in different time frames?

Chart Mode I is Williams %R 36 for the time frame of the chart.

Chart Mode II should be Williams %R 36 from a higher time frame. However, I haven't figured out how to get it on the chart. So at the moment, it's just Bill William's Awesome Oscillator. And the lower left corner of the screen shows Chart Mode I from a higher time frame.

Thank you. I'll take a look.

Thank you

I got some pips on this USDCAD long trade. The entry was a bit aggressive. I have a tendency to open too early and often get stopped. That's one of the reasons I've lost $500 over the past five years and am still working a micro account.

1. NY premarket open at 0830 am saw an effort to move down with stopping volume as demand overcame supply.
2. Confirming test bar showing supply was decreasing. I entered long there anticipating accumulation prior to UOM Consumer Sentiment report release.
3. Basic test with low volume. Confirming the tests at 2. This was a better rate at which to buy with confidence.
4. Effort to move up at time of UOM CS report release. Rate tested below low of that bar only briefly then stayed and closed above the low of bar 4.

How come you have M3 time frame on MT4? Is it in real time or you use indicator for time frames?

I use a time period converting indicator to convert three one minute bars into one three minute bar. There are several versions available. The one I've been using is attached.

Thank you. I assumed it might be indicator...

Thought i'd post a follow up to HGs great post above. I had a sell a little before the point that he talks about as well as there being a P&F set up at pretty much the exact point that he talks about in his post. I also use 3min P&F charts so it all ties in nicely I feel!

I know HG is a proponent of single time frame analysis but i'm going to include the two i'm always using. 15min HLC chart with a 3min 1x3 P&F chart.



First a bit of background. 5 high volume bars. A mixture of ultra high, news and "high for that time of day".

1. This printed on Wednesday last week and pretty much set the tone for Thursday and Friday.

2. Thursday morning, right in to the low of bar 1. We got an initial reaction and then price slowly ground upwards over the next few periods. I actually tried a long from the high of this zone which was a bit a of a stupid decision. Anyway, this post isn't about this.

3. News on Thursday, price broke upwards and fast before closing near the low, it tried to push through and absorb the selling from bar 1 and failed miserable. Really weak bar.

4. Friday morning, high volume bar into the same area as zone 2. This just confirmed further weakness for me.

5. More news, this time into the low of bar 4. This is the area that HG is talking about in his post.



On to the 3min chart.

I've marked zone 4 and 5 and I hope this makes sense. A lot of lines on the chart I know!

I entered on the marked yellow sell signal. I admittedly bent the rules a tad as the signal isn't entirely below the MA. I've marked a further three green signals. The first one would have been the better entry for me as it was in the upper half of the trend channel and below the MA at this point.

The second green signal helped my trade on to the target which was just above the lower trend line for that channel.

The third one is the same area as HGs entry. The signal dictates that I enter at 1.0569 whilst HG enters at around 1.0573 below bar D. I love how all these aligned to give great trades.

Seeing as I'd had the earlier trade in the day I had already finished and was away from the computer at this point. You can guarantee i'd have been all over it had I been watching.



Just an overview of how far it went from this point.

Hope these charts help a few people out.

Just for sh*ts and giggles..............

This does not prove anything. I am not asserting that it does.

I was just sitting here watching the market as I do. If fact, if I am at my computer and the market is open, I am watching it trying to improve my craft.

I decided to take a sim trade on my Ensign platform.

Admittedly, I was late getting in on the long side. Bars marked 1 and 2 would be good entries as well. I missed than and got in on the Shake Out (#3). As you can see, at the time of the entry, Chart Mode I was green, Price was above the Balance Point Line (BPL) and Chart Mode II was green. Chart Mode II from the 12 minute time frame was also green (check lower left corner of screen shot).

I exited early on what appeared to be a Buying Climax.

Hi fellow traders, i am very new to vsa and just got myself Tom Williams book. I was just wondering if anyone had pdfs or other stuff that are useful for noobs like me. Think i get the methadology well but the patterns i dont fully understand. Btw good concepts are very obvious at first look and vsa really looks interesting i can't wait to better understand it.

Hi mate, welcome to the dark side!

I'd recommend clicking the attachments link at the top of the thread then sorting by type and having a look through all the attached PDF files. You'll find loads of stuff in there.

Thanks kinsaleforex

Well im also noob to threads i think...

Todays morning I have spotted possible entry (unfourtunately had to go away), Does anyone take the trade? What do you think about it?



and the result