Market View; World Stock Indexes; Trading Journal

European markets recovered from Tuesday Losses and are at new highs. The drop from industrial orders in Germany (-3.90% in January), which was worst than the estimation, reinforced the negative trend of the euro, which benefits the stocks of exporting companies. The ECB meeting is the main event of the day. Six years after the U.S. Federal Reserve began quantitative easing, the ECB’s Governing Council committed to its first asset purchases next week in a program amounting to 60 billion euros ($66 billion) a month.

European markets started the session negotiating with no major fluctuations. The publication of the GDP of the Eurozone on the 4th quarter remained in the values ​​of the previous calculation. Compared with the 3rd quarter of 2014, GDP grew 0.30%, reflecting an increase in domestic consumption and investment in machinery. In recent weeks, several indicators have shown signs of improvement in the economy of the eurozone, which justified the upward revision of the ECB’s projections for 2015 and 2016. At the micro level, the evidence confirms this trend. Regarding the earnings season, about 80% of the companies belonging to the STOXX Europe 600 index have reported their quarterly results, recording an average growth of 22% of their profits. This will have been the best earnings season since mid-2011, with 61% of companies beating estimates, compared to the usual 48%. Today, the Foreign Ministers of the European Union will meet at 10:00 am in Riga (Latvia). The main item on the agenda will be the situation in Ukraine. It is not excluded that it is discussed the possibility to impose new sanctions on Russia. During the afternoon, European markets will be influenced by the publication of the US employment report.

While Americans indexes corrected (the S & P fell 1.60%), European markets extended the recent rise. Although the overperformance of European stocks can be justified in the light of various factors (improving economic outlook, monetary policy of the ECB, the positive effects of the oil drop and the Euro, etc., a difference of behavior between the European and American markets is not sustainable. There is a historical correlation between these markets, and the differences of merely casual and short-lived trend. Thus, a convergence between the two markets is expected, although it is not yet apparent whether this convergence will be made by a rise in US markets or a correction of the European markets. Not disregarding the factors that have driven the European indexes (and which shall remain valid even before a correction), it is more likely at this stage to be the European indexes to correct.

Stock Market decline, wiping out recent gains, as the dollar strengthened to near a 12-year high versus the euro amid speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to raising interest rates.

The Market is recovering from yesterday’s losses. Although Wall Street has prolonged the correction after the European close, European equities, show some resilience based on losses contained in the Asian markets and the favorable climate that has involved the European markets. Today initiate negotiations between the Greek authorities and technical EU / IMF / ECB on the measures that will be implemented in the country. The European indexes will remain very attentive and sensitive to any rumors or news from Athens. Also today, the ECB will hold its annual conference, where the debt purchase program is undoubtedly a major topic as well as the economic outlook in the Euro Zone.
US shares closed yesterday with sharp losses. The main cause for the drop is the concern that the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than anticipated last week. The key event that changed the perspective of investors was the employment report, which described a very dynamic labor market. The prospects of a rise in interest rates in the US also influences the equity markets through the foreign exchange market. A pattern that starts creating some concern among investors is the rise of the dollar. About 20% of the revenues of the constituent companies of the S & P is generated outside the US. Thus, the appreciation of the dollar decrease the value of revenues and profits in foreign markets as reduces the competitiveness of the products of American multinationals. Thus, when the dollar reaches extreme values, the correlation between this currency and the US indexes becomes negative. Today, the Fed will publish the second round of stress tests that assess how banks manage risk and its ability to increase the shareholder remuneration programs, such as the distribution of dividends and the repurchase of own shares.

With the bad result of retail sales, influenced by the decrease in sales of cars and bad weather that plagued the US East Coast, are given less reason the Fed to raise interest rates in the coming months and the markets feel some relief.

One of the most popular strategies among hedge funds (and also some private investors) is the purchase of shares of geographic areas were are being implemented quantitative easing programs. Therefore, Japan and the Eurozone are in favored markets for these investors. Since the beginning of the year, American savers signed in 4000 M.USD European equity fund and 1000 M.USD in Japanese equity funds. These subscriptions were made at the expense redemption of US equity funds, which in 2015 suffered outflows of approximately 5200 M.USD. This strategy has borne fruit, as from the beginning of the year the Eurostoxx50 appreciated by 15.73% and the Nikkei 10.33%, compared to a gain of only 0.34% of the S & P. While this strategy has obtained interesting returns, there are always risks when a strategy is followed by a very large number of investors. Another strategy that has been equally popular is buying dollars and selling other currencies including the Euro. Many investors fund in Euros (at interest rates close to or equal to 0%), convert these loans in US dollars and then apply them to higher interest rates for the eurozone. In addition to the differential between the interest rate of the loan and the application in Dollars, these investors also benefit from the appreciation of the US currency (increases the value of your application) and the simultaneous devaluation of the Euro (which reduced the value of the loan) . In relation to European equities, this strategy despite fruitful has attracted too many investors, which poses some risks. So if many of these investors decide simultaneously to close this strategy, we will assist to a drop of the Dollar against the Euro. Whereas the devaluation of the Euro has been one of the drivers of European markets, their valuation, although short-term could lead to a correction in the European indexes.

It seems we are facing a new paradigm in the equity markets, history teaches that the difference separating the two sides of the Atlantic will have to be resolved. The big question is by how: the correction of the European markets or the recovery of US markets? The answer to this question can be given by Euro behavior. The European currency has suffered a sharp devaluation against the dollar (for the reasons already described several times), boosting the prices of the exporting companies. Buying European bonds has been a very popular strategy among global investors. This strategy has already obtained interesting returns and considering we were quite investors that followed, there is a risk of simultaneous realization of capital gains if any adverse event arise. A possible negative factor may be a momentary recovery of the Euro, whose fall has reached extreme levels. The common currency’s behavior monitoring is of crucial importance at this stage.

The so-called Fast Money had accumulated selling positions in the previous week, trying to capitalize on the fears of many investors in relation to interest rates. During yesterday’s session, many of these investors have reduced these selling positions due to the meeting of the FED (which starts today but whose decision shall only be forwarded tomorrow).

The strength of the U.S. dollar and its evolution will continue to dictate the behavior of stock market indexes. The EUR / USD exchange rate should be influenced by today’s meeting of the FED. The reaction of the forex markets may be exacerbated by the number of investors who have short positions on the European currency and may close their positions for profit taking. If as a result of this event, if the Euro / Dollar overcome the zone of 1,068 / 1,070 then it is likely that the European currency engage in a short-term recovery, which will penalize European indexes.

Stock markets negotiate with contained oscillations. The European markets will be the stage of the opposition of two effects: the positive associated with the rise of Wall Street and the negative associated with the recovery of the Euro, resulting from the meeting of the FED. The depreciation of the euro has been the main driver of European markets, so its recovery is a negative factor in the current environment. Therefore, is expected an underperformance of the European indexes against their American peers. If the recovery of the Euro continue, the DAX should be penalized as it is the most sensitive to the common currency as was the most favored for the losses this currency suffered until yesterday.

FTSE 100 Index hit a fresh record and climbed above 7,000 for the first time.

European markets are trading in slight correction. Last week, Merrill Lynch published a poll in which stood a clear preference for European equities, followed by the Japanese, and there is the conviction that economic conditions in the euro area will improve over 2015. The preferred sector of global investors is the automobile and less appealing the financial sector. US shares are less attractive according to the survey.

European markets negotiate without major fluctuations. The recovery of the euro and the disappointing data given by the manufacturing industry in China should weigh negatively on the main indexes. Today will be published the final data on economic activity, measured by the PMI indexes. Economists estimate a further improvement in recent months. The impact of these data in the equity markets should materialize via forex market. If the PMI indexes indicate a higher economic activity than estimated the Euro will tend to value itself, penalizing European equities. The issue of Greece has been relegated to a secondary plan but retains its importance. The government in Athens will present an economic plan until next Monday, while the President of the European Parliament, Martin Schultz noted that it is possible to reach an agreement this week.

European markets shrink after the opening of the session, following the Wall Street trend. As we know, there are signs that point that European markets reached extreme levels. However, only when the DAX (who has served as benchmark for European markets) close below 11800, the short-term trend could be reversed. A possible correction of short-term European indexes does not compromise the positive environment that has marked the stock market year of 2015. One of the factors that may cause a decline in European markets is a recovery of the Euro.The course of the European currency can be influenced by the publication of the German business sentiment index.

The reasons for the weakness in the Aamerican Indexes are from technical and fundamental nature. The technical reasons are linked to the fact that the rise in US indexes have reached extreme levels (although not as extreme as the Europeans) so a correction was not entirely unlikely. In fact, many investors decided to take profits in sectors that had accumulated higher valuations, such as biotechnology. Another factor that has weighed on investor sentiment is the downward revision of estimates for corporate profits for the 1st quarter of this year. The main reason for this review is the rise in the dollar.

European markets negociate without a defined trend, and were initially influenced by the decrease of Euro during yesterday’s New York session and Asian today. In this context, the most cyclical stocks, including car manufacturers, should register a overperformance, as happened at the end of yesterday’s session. The decline of oil in Asian markets could generate selling pressure in the respective sector. The prevailing opinion in the oil markets is that air attacks on Shiite positions in Yemen should not restrict the transport of goods through the Red Sea, and should not ignite Shiite minorities in other areas of the Arabian Peninsula. The mining sector could also negotiate down after the Chinese government has said that 75% of Chinese iron producers are suffering losses in their activity due to rising operating costs and falling demand.

Today in the evening, the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will update the Greek Parliament on economic reforms that his government intends to implement and its discussions with European partners. In the Asian session, the price of the main raw materials traded lower. Despite continuous air strikes in Yemen and the apparent impasse in the negotiations between Iran and the sextet formed by the US, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany, failed to have a positive effect on the prices of crude oil, which lost in the Asian session some of the gains made last week. The European technology sector may be excited by rumors emerged on Wall Street that Intel may acquire Altera by 10000 M.USD.

The main interest rate should be raised in June amid a stronger job market, consumer-spending growth and inflation heading back toward the Fed’s target.

Today begins a period that is seasonally negative for American stocks. Until April 15, the Americans will have to pay their IRS and many resort to the sale of shares or the redemption of investment funds to finance this charge. Over the past 20 years, the beginning of the month until that day, US markets were only able to achieve a positive return in only 30% of the time. This is it just an empirical data does not mean that American indexes will repeat this pattern this year. The important thing to remember is that the next two weeks will be due to attend a selling pressure.