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  • #1,121
  • Mar 12, 2015 9:46pm Mar 12, 2015 9:46pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Trying to pick bottoms (or tops) especially using fundamentals is a recipe for disaster.
Yes, trying to pick bottoms (or tops) using personal feelings is even worse.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,122
  • Mar 12, 2015 9:58pm Mar 12, 2015 9:58pm
Quoting skyhok
{quote} Yes, trying to pick bottoms (or tops) using personal feelings is even worse.
Agree 100% but was anyone doing that?

Well actually on this forum - all the time.
  • #1,123
  • Mar 13, 2015 12:55am Mar 13, 2015 12:55am
yes like people who be screaming "short short" since new year and still dont reallize we havent seen a new low for almost 3 months and we soon entering a new quarter. Get over its late to make a killing on shorting this now. Don't know about other but have been short since last year and january was the first month i called for higher prices. Maybe new lows again who knows but i will still be looking for longs both on short and long term.
  • #1,124
  • Mar 13, 2015 1:10am Mar 13, 2015 1:10am
and this was my outlook back in january posted for a group

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  • #1,125
  • Mar 13, 2015 3:11am Mar 13, 2015 3:11am
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} Trying to pick bottoms (or tops) especially using fundamentals is a recipe for disaster.
My results speak for themselves,

I have done well over 600% of my margin (and continuing with the oil drop) since Sept last year.... mind you, all my positions since than are still currently open.

SO, when Kuroda said he was about to pump money into the system and the yen went from 105 to 119 NON STOP would have been EXCELLENT fundamental news. You basically couldnt have lost as long as you chose bull at any point!

When OPEC decided on NOV to not reduce output and WTI dropped from 69 to 55 in less than 2 weeks.... or the recent bull trap for the month of January based on investor sentiment by the plunge in rig counts....

The recent Swiss bank disaster.. literally the very next day would have been optimal to go bull! by now anyone would have be +3000 pips!

SO what are you taking about? Disaster if you dont like making money? Technical is great to jump in and out of markets but I think you are basically a scalper if your target is less than 200 pips. And good for you if that works for you!

Like i mentioned somewhere before, I use entry and exit points based on technical. If you ignore fundament news (which actually moves any market) you probably join the 90+% that are impatient and lose money on a regular basis.
  • #1,126
  • Mar 13, 2015 3:37am Mar 13, 2015 3:37am
Quoting jasakreatif
{image}
looking for recovey , for last sl hit

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  • #1,127
  • Mar 13, 2015 4:38am Mar 13, 2015 4:38am
guys, can anyone explain the gap, which has just occured?
  • #1,128
  • Mar 13, 2015 5:15am Mar 13, 2015 5:15am
30 pips away before Im offically calliing this market back to bear mode!
PIP heaven!
1st -47... next up 44
  • #1,129
  • Mar 13, 2015 5:17am Mar 13, 2015 5:17am
...either that or a GREAT spot to go bull again...
  • #1,130
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:22am Mar 13, 2015 8:22am
Quoting DaTokyoHustl
{quote} ... Like i mentioned somewhere before, I use entry and exit points based on technical.
Well that's different.

But I'm still waiting for a U.S. Dollar chart showing imminent collapse.

Technically or even fundamentally it doesn't show because ... as you know in forex there is always the other side of the pair.

So when you look at funnymentals of the euro, pound, yen, etc, etc they are $#!t more than the dollar is.

That is all I'm saying.

One day the dollar will drop again. Up, down, up, down. Like anything else.

Today (and maybe for another year or even two) it is going up.
  • #1,131
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:25am Mar 13, 2015 8:25am
Quoting alayinizAMK
yes like people who be screaming "short short" since new year and still dont reallize we havent seen a new low for almost 3 months and we soon entering a new quarter. Get over its late to make a killing on shorting this now. Don't know about other but have been short since last year and january was the first month i called for higher prices. Maybe new lows again who knows but i will still be looking for longs both on short and long term.
Obviously ... or being a hero trying to call a bottom.
  • #1,132
  • Mar 13, 2015 8:48am Mar 13, 2015 8:48am
Here is a chart plainly showing which swings (marked along top and bottom) have been better to catch so far this year:

From - to

Jan 2 - Jan 13 -18.60%

Jan 13 - Jan 15 +14.36%

Jan 15 - Jan 29 -14.90%

Jan 29 - Feb 3 +23.87%

Feb 3 Feb 26 -13.09%

Feb 26 - Mar 5 +9.62%

Mar 5 - Mar 13 (so far) -12.36%

Which when you add them altogether comes to -11.10 (again so far, because price is dropping further today)

So you tell me which side its been better to be on overall, again since the beginning of the year, - bull or bear?

Nevermind since the market broke way back more than 6 months ago that everyone and their brothers say shorted.

One other thing about those swings marked on the chart is the numbers of days each swing took adds up each to 10 days long and 38 days short. Obvious sign the long day swings were just nervous shorts covering and not new real buyers. Well actually I should say most likely because nothing (technically or fundamental) is ever obvious in trading. "Whatever can go wrong, will".
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  • #1,133
  • Mar 13, 2015 9:07am Mar 13, 2015 9:07am
1st target almost reached.
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #1,134
  • Mar 13, 2015 2:27pm Mar 13, 2015 2:27pm
Huge triangles happen at reversals i am stil looking for a triangular formation as a confirmation of trend reversal before anything. But if one more level and a cross under the red line then need to reconsider again.


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  • #1,135
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:46am Mar 14, 2015 10:46am
Quoting alayinizAMK
Huge triangles happen at reversals i am stil looking for a triangular formation as a confirmation of trend reversal before anything. But if one more level and a cross under the red line then need to reconsider again. {image}
Im actually expecting a bit of a bounce in the near future to go potential as high as 57.5 where I will get loaded up to short again.
Wishful thinking, but I would ultimately like to see this cross the $40 thresh hold before the next bounce...
US Gov considering on buying 5 million barrels for strategic reserve.. this may also impact...
weak demand, no production cut... I will remain bear... like you as well, I can hardly wait for the rebound!
  • #1,136
  • Mar 14, 2015 10:49am Mar 14, 2015 10:49am
whoops... I meant 47.5*
  • #1,137
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:16pm Mar 15, 2015 7:16pm
I'm amazed how people sits withuot stops in long positions begining with 49 dollars WTI and sits in loss. And still now 72 percent sits in longs. So keep falling...
  • #1,138
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:33pm Mar 15, 2015 7:33pm
Quoting vaidas7777
I'm amazed how people sits withuot stops in long positions begining with 49 dollars WTI and sits in loss. And still now 72 percent sits in longs. So keep falling...
I'm just amazed anyone would even look to go long ... without a shred of technicals, bullish sentiment or fundamental news.

Ok a quick 5, 10, 15 minute counter trend scalp.

Otherwise some traders should head to their nearest casino and at least get a drink or two for the money they plan to throw away.
  • #1,139
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:55pm Mar 15, 2015 7:55pm
Quoting vaidas7777
I'm amazed how people sits withuot stops in long positions begining with 49 dollars WTI and sits in loss. And still now 72 percent sits in longs. So keep falling...
This people (like me) know it that Oil will be back to 100 $ or more in a year from now,

Aaand they simply did not over leveraged their account and have no hurry.

Simply, even if oil goes back to 1 $ per Barel their account will still not see the MC
because they have $$ in the backyard, (and again, they did not over leveraged)
and even more the Oil fails even more they load up. So what ??

Understandskij ??

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  • #1,140
  • Mar 15, 2015 7:56pm Mar 15, 2015 7:56pm
Quoting SunTrader
{quote} I'm just amazed anyone would even look to go long ... without a shred of technicals, bullish sentiment or fundamental news. Ok a quick 5, 10, 15 minute counter trend scalp. Otherwise some traders should head to their nearest casino and at least get a drink or two for the money they plan to throw away.
See the answer above. Thanks.

:nerd:
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